• Member Statistics

    16,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    nyrangers1022
    Newest Member
    nyrangers1022
    Joined
WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Hah, we clearly disagree. I’m gonna defer to you though. I’m sure you’re better at this.

You’re both right..he has a lot more wiggle room than we do.  That fades for him if this pushes south obviously.  I’d take a mix of anything wintry at this point.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think about this. We have a storm, not suppressed and partly cloudy. That’s the first hurdle. We haven’t had one since Jan 1. And don’t tell me a cold front is a storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Comparison 12z and 6z Eps

12z.

..u can easily spot the differences with primary and the confluence 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_anom-1619200.png

6z 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_anom-1619200 (1).png

LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me.

I guess the H is a little closer to Lake Superior? By about a 1/10th of a mile

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me.

The isobars are more sheared out around the L and you can see the secondary forming quicker, but idk if that’s a product of a faster shortwave or not. There does seem to be less HP wedging into Ne though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I guess the H is a little closer to Lake Superior? By about a 1/10th of a mile

Lol. U guys are too much . 

12z 3mb weaker with the primary 

Less separation with the 50/50 low to the ne on the 12z 

Both good things in my book 

And as Wentz mentioned reaching for the coast quicker 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL you can? From a pressure map? Maybe you could point them out to me.

Not sure about the confluence, but the low placement is different -- the low on the top map is closer to Ohio, the bottom map shows it at the southwest corner of Indiana/Illinois border.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, losetoa6 said:

Lol. U guys are too much . 

12z 3mb weaker with the primary 

Less separation with the 50/50 low to the ne on the 12z 

Both good things in my book 

Yes but the bigger issue is that northern wave (even with the weaker sheared out version) damages the thermals and the faster southern wave doesn’t allow the cold to build back south in time.  That and the but less high pressure in front offsets those other gains you are highlighting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Lol. U guys are too much . 

12z 3mb weaker with the primary 

Less separation with the 50/50 low to the ne on the 12z 

Both good things in my book 

That’s just anomaly colors. Look at the actual isobars. There’s very little difference in those maps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not sure about the confluence, but the low placement is different -- the low on the top map is closer to Ohio, the bottom map shows it at the southwest corner of Indiana/Illinois border.

That’s one I agree with. We want that low closer to Max any precip into whatever cold air we have. If this was a true cad situation. It might actually hurt in this setup.

My head hurts lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm personally rooting for a juicy decently strong system but not too amped . I'm fine with a changeover if it's a hard thump to start  vs light qpf . Gimme the qpf :pepsi:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks pretty bad, at this time, for the Pittsburgh area.  What are the chances we see this slide further south?  Obviously, still time for that to happen, but are chances decent?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm personally rooting for a juicy decently strong system but not too amped . I'm fine with a changeover if it's a hard thump to start  vs light qpf . Gimme the qpf :pepsi:

Same

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this does become a nw track where we need a front end thump one thing to keep an eye on is where the mid level winds are directed. We want the mid level wind max directed to the NE from the low along the warm front. If it’s a more compact circulation there won’t be as much WAA out ahead of it and by the time the precip arrives the mid levels are scorched. That’s not something the guidance will get right this far out. Remember the tease that mid January NW track storm gave us last year at this range. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to say if 18z ICON is any better than 12z....its slower. And for us, verbatim lower heights at 120 but the slower motion could offset that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z ICON is a tick south, slower and colder than 12z, FWIW.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps 2m temp run to run change 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-t2m_f_dprog-1597600.png

2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. 
7AB539BC-CE35-4ECA-B540-F9C83146E47F.thumb.png.101ab5b3b3c9de15e03602f65ea007a8.png
1CD5F481-D977-48ED-8FF8-6FDD88EA7533.thumb.png.8a1df9396e2e38ec25c9af8dfdb1bed4.png

 This is more bad then what you showed is good.  Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. 

For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most.  Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. 
7AB539BC-CE35-4ECA-B540-F9C83146E47F.thumb.png.101ab5b3b3c9de15e03602f65ea007a8.png
1CD5F481-D977-48ED-8FF8-6FDD88EA7533.thumb.png.8a1df9396e2e38ec25c9af8dfdb1bed4.png

 This is more bad then what you showed is good.  Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. 

For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most.  Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. 

we live in an area where its a win to stay all frozen. We have been what NC was in the Larry cosgrove days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most.  Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. 

The snow mean was pretty similar, but I still agree on what you said with the change in the individual members from the EPS. For our region the chances of 1" of snow went up, but the chances of 6" of snow on the EPS went down. I'd imagine this suggests that our ticket to success is the front end thump with way less members holding onto thermals

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2m temps don’t matter (unless you just want freezing rain) the problem is at the mid levels. Look at the change at 850 during the 2 most crucial times. 
7AB539BC-CE35-4ECA-B540-F9C83146E47F.thumb.png.101ab5b3b3c9de15e03602f65ea007a8.png
1CD5F481-D977-48ED-8FF8-6FDD88EA7533.thumb.png.8a1df9396e2e38ec25c9af8dfdb1bed4.png

 This is more bad then what you showed is good.  Again unless your goal is freezing rain then yay. 

For the record I don’t like being a deb but the truth is the eps was a step in the wrong direction for snow. It was still better then some guidance and it wasn’t awful but it trended warmer where and when it matters most.  Again unless you want ice. If you want some freezing rain it was a good run. 

Your right the all snow scenario is on life support. It's all relative to each his own I guess .Of note the panel before above 126 which is precip onset 850s still look solid to south of DC . 

I guess what i see as a solid trend is the good chance many in here stay frozen the whole time there's qpf around . Weather it be snow, sleet, zrain . Its getting likely that a winter storm will hit most here . Precip totals and types  to be determined. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.