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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lol I’m not pessimistic. If I didn’t think I had a good chance of actually getting this one I wouldn’t be as nervous wrt what could go wrong. I don’t fret when I know it’s going to fail. It’s when I know a setup has extremely rare potential that doesn’t come along often that it would hurt bad if it fails.  Imo the bigger threat to a fail for my location is suppressed.  So seeing the eps nudge south again (when frankly I was in the bullseye up here 2 runs ago already) isn’t what I want to see. It just isn’t.  Given the seasonal trend why would anyone want to see a south trend when we’re still 130  hours away?  So perspective I still am optimistic.  But that’s why I don’t want to see any hint at the setup unraveling.  Even if it’s just the tiniest little speck of a hint. 

Well you’re one hell of a contributor to the board and your time and analysis don’t go unnoticed. Thanks for everything now and in the future ahead of time for sure.

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I think we all know, if this storm has an historic potential, now is the time for it to be modeled that way across the board. 2016 was at least 6+days out with unusual model agreement.

BUT if not even historic, 4-8 even 6-10 inches is a win In my book.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference.  

6ADFFAA2-FBAF-421B-B887-2B553C2A4605.thumb.png.c008efa129a86c03b66f0d9bbe1cc6ab.png

The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo.  Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. 

 

There are subtle differences but same reasoning.

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La nina years don't tend to model storms well a week in advance.  Today's euro was nice, but it needs a lot of support still being a week out.
It'd almost Wed and the storm has precip close by on Saturday night

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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Psu meltdowns are amazing. Even i can't reach that level of epicness

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

La nina years don't tend to model storms well a week in advance.  Today's euro was nice, but it needs a lot of support still being a week out.

Many ensemble members have it snowing by hours 120-126 . Still a ways out but we r getting in that range 120 ish that models should be honing in.

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4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

La nina years don't tend to model storms well a week in advance.  Today's euro was nice, but it needs a lot of support still being a week out.

Precip is in the SW part of the forum late Saturday night and into DC after midnight.  yes, its always good to be measured around here but this isn’t a week out.  

Ninja’d by losetoa6

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Precip is in the SW part of the forum late Saturday night and into DC after midnight.  yes, its always good to be measured around here but this isn’t a week out.  

Ninja’d by losetoa6

I thought it was starting Sunday evening through Monday (or Tuesday morning if we’re lucky). That was what I saw on the Euro. Regardless, it’s only about 5 days away! 

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12 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I think we all know, if this storm has an historic potential, now is the time for it to be modeled that way across the board. 2016 was at least 6+days out with unusual model agreement.

BUT if not even historic, 4-8 even 6-10 inches is a win In my book.

I saw your profile picture and thought that @Ji was willing to settle. Should have known better!

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

It'd almost Wed and the storm has precip close by on Saturday night

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Who are you and what have you done with Ji?

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I can understand where @psuhoffman is coming from. Just ask yourself one question ... what has every storm done for the past month and a half (that wasn’t a cold front). Where did the best precip go yesterday? I was progged to get anywhere from about 0.6 to well over an inch of precip. We got 0.2. We’ve had 1.35 since December. I’ll admit it. I’m sweating getting next to no precip with this one too. But I’m going at this one different. The model with the least precip is my baseline. Then I’m dividing that by 3 and basing my snowfall hopes in that. 
 

Just once I’d like to be in the precip max area. I wouldn’t even care if it was rain. I’d just like to see if it can happen.

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47 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So why is the suppression such a threat (again) here, if the blocking is relaxing? I'm not getting the moving parts here and what has been causing all the squashing we've been seeing lately...

First I think people misunderstand when I fret about something.  Notice I don’t pitch a fit when a relatively minor event evaporates. I don’t when a setup we knew was iffy falls apart. But when I think something has truly rare potential...a setup we don’t get often...one I don’t want to waste because it might not come again soon...when I actually think we will get a good snowstorm, that’s when I am picky and fret at any little sign it might fall apart. We have more to lose. So me fretting is a GOOD thing. It means Im invested and actually think we will get snow. If I didn’t I wouldn’t care about a slight trend here or there.  But we kinda wasted one of these opportunities in December. It underperformed potential. We wasted one this week. So yea this is the 3rd crack at imo a really good high potential event and I’d like to not strike out considering we can go years without getting these kinds of patterns and setups. We can’t afford to waste them. 
 

Now as for why suppression is a risk even if smaller then the last few waves.  Keep in mind we need suppression.  We’re south of the mean storm track when there is none.  But too much of a good thing and it’s congrats Richmond. I don’t think this can go too much further but I’d rather not test that theory.   The blocking is relaxing but not gone yet.  
4FA6A269-22AB-4EDF-A98D-8729B8536E8D.thumb.jpeg.4c0e3b2600d6a2d1c5463a97d8a9b690.jpeg

that upper low is a beaut but the spacing is still a little tight. The ridge axis out west is east of the canonical Boise target and positively tilted. That could put pressure on the wave and make it progressive or dig too far into the southeast.  The flow to the northeast is also still pretty suppressive.  The 50/50 is vacating but the timing is close. It’s not a sure thing.  That high in Canada (remnants of the block) is pretty far south. All it would take is for that upper low to take the red track v the green and Baltimore  north is smoking citrus whole VA and NC get snow.   That doesn’t mean I think that’s happening. I don’t. But it’s the most likely fail so I don’t want to see even a hint of guidance moving that way. Not even a bit. 

ETA: this panel is absolutely beautiful and rare for an ensemble at 144 but all it would take for a miss to the south is to adjust that to the red circle.  Given the trend...48 hours ago that h5 low was up in New England, and we’re not 100% safe from that YET.  Frankly 1-2 more adjustments like the last several runs and were in trouble.   If we see the euro stabilize tonight and tomorrow with no further shift south (and I mean NONE not this thing we do where we try to ignore or excuse it away like oh it’s just noise)  then I will feel a lot better.  

94A6381E-1F5F-479B-81A2-830AF8EF9996.jpeg

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the write up. That’s the control btw though. This is the eps mean same time. Just for reference.  

6ADFFAA2-FBAF-421B-B887-2B553C2A4605.thumb.png.c008efa129a86c03b66f0d9bbe1cc6ab.png

The eps mean is a little better then the 18z control imo.  Control dove the h5 low too far south for my liking. 

 

It’s all too far east for my liking, the ridge and the trough

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu meltdowns are amazing. Even i can't reach that level of epicness

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

We melt for opposite reasons. You melt down when you know it’s going bad. I melt down when I think it should go good and get nervous at any little sign that has the potential to derail a rare opportunity. 

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@psuhoffman what is the gfs seeing that the euro isn’t or vice versa? Is it strictly just stronger confluence overall or will the western ridge end up dictating how big this storm can get or be? There’s a lot of moving pieces to keep up with. Seems like the HP can cautiously be checked off the needs list. Is the GFS doing it’s typical driving of LP’s too far into a cad type setup or does it actually hold merit in this instance in your opinion? 

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@psuhoffman Thanks for the explanation! And yes, I haven't forgotten that your fret level runs parallel with the snow potential, lol So in that case...fret away! :lol: It's like your inner Ji comes out and Ji's inner psu comes out (well kinda)

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon with snow around 120 hour and colder so far 

Man I was just looking at hr90 and that is one hell of a vort at h5 out in the middle of the country. Feels really good to track one of these big potentials again and not have it be 240 hrs plus away.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon with snow around 120 hour and colder so far 

You’re ahead of me but but 96 hrs HP has gone from 1035 to 1038. Good cold press pushing down from NY State and New England.

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Considering the worry of fringe.. that's a decent run. Still basically WSW snows for DC and west, Northern Maryland gets a great snow

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Icon behaving like a miller b in a Nina. Best snow to the NE. 

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