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January Long Range Disco Thread

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Never seen a full Rex block on a day 10+ ensemble mean like the 6z GEFS. That’s crazy.  The Atlantic looks as perfect as we could hope for. Unfortunately the pac goes to hell and the central pac ridge goes ape which will try to force a western trough eastern ridge. The Atlantic does resist and the pac ridge is more poleward which will inject more cold and press the boundary more SE then typical with that pac ridge trough alignment.  That combo has worked in the past but it requires getting enough cold into the pattern to press east under the block.  Lately that last part has been a problem. 

Could this lead to overrunning events? 

Snow to mix to dry slot?

Edit : with storm tracks to the west?

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Could this lead to overrunning events? 

Snow to mix to dry slot?

Edit : with storm tracks to the west?

Yes or if the block is really flexing crazy transfers from the Midwest to the coast.

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I found this article on Bloomberg News. Here is an excerpt:

That could mean chills anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, though this year it’s likely to end up in the U.S. according to Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger LCC. A wave of deep cold could give the Great Lakes and East Coast their first real blast of frigid winter weather, along with a storm pattern that delivers snow storms as well.
 

read the entire article since the last paragraph is, well, a little deflating. 
 

link:https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/as-polar-vortex-stirs-a-deep-freeze-threatens-u-s-and-europe

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It degraded significantly since then. The trough doesn’t have enough depth and it’s all NS now 

07828B85-99B1-43B2-87C5-A946D5086B9B.thumb.png.01c75d1e0c6a7b5c1f6ba29a393109f3.png

Still, that ought to be capable of producing snow. Clippers, weak lows, something.

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@CAPE the eps actually fully caved to the GEFS pattern progression in the long range. But both have now picked up on something that mutes our opportunity before that.  It makes sense in hindsight. After the poleward pac ridge goes up and the initial dump of true cold goes into the west...a ridge will pop as response in the east. At that time there isn’t enough cold in the east yet for that see saw equation to end well.  It also doesn’t help that the NAO ridge still is just an extension of the WAR at that time and hasn’t retrogrades and cut off enough yet to fully resist the SE ridge.  But with the blocking that cold starts to bleed east and eventually we get a pattern that can work.  The only problem there is that’s a more typical Nina pac and the STJ will be totally cut off. So the fear is if the NS doesn’t gain enough depth it’s a dry NW flow pattern and we watch New England get late developing Miller Bs.   It has worked before though. March 2018 was a poleward pac ridge -NAO pattern. But remember that was frustrating at times with 2 miller b miss big New England storms before we finally got our snowstorm.  January 2011 had a poleward PAC ridge buy it stayed centered just off the west coast and never fully pulled back too far. Feb 2006 kinda worked...we got one big snow but we waited around most of the month with a great block waiting for that one southern wave to come along.  That general pattern has lead to snowstorms but it can be really frustrating if the NS is dominant and nothing amplifies. 

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37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still, that ought to be capable of producing snow. Clippers, weak lows, something.

Some pity flakes maybe. A real snowstorm...ehh. You should talk to losetoe6 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some pity flakes maybe. A real snowstorm...ehh. You should talk to losetoe6 

Would you rather have “pity flakes” or no flakes.

I think I’ll set my bar a bit lower than the 12”+ snow.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Would you rather have “pity flakes” or no flakes.

I think I’ll set my bar a bit lower than the 12”+ snow.

By bar is somewhere between 12” and some random flakes.  Also I’m way more willing to be interested in a minor snowfall within 48 hours. But investing time tracking a clipper or some snow showers no. 

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ive never seen a long range threat die as fast as the Jan 19. We literally have nothing to track

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive never seen a long range threat pattern die as fast as the Jan 19 post-1/15. We literally have nothing to track

Fixed. Seems like not only is that discrete threat dead, but the whole 'great pattern incoming' idea is taking its final breaths

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Delayed usually means denied around here.  If we're now talking about late Jan/early Feb, we seem to just keep kicking the can down the road.  

I'm not saying we won't score, but its starting to feel like we just keep pushing things to the right in terms of looks that translate to actual threats.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

great. so we are on to Feb now!

 

here is a good way to look at it

the Dec 15 storm is our Dec 19,2010 storm.

then we had no storms until the end of Jan in 2010(remember how much i complained) which is whats happening now

Feb was epic as will Feb 2021 be.

basically we are on track for a modified version of 09-10 minus the cold and snow

 

 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS must be spitting out a storm so awesome it broke the model

seeing how its soon to be "state run" it needs approved by the bosses....

:lol:

 

I'm just KIDDING.......I hope.  LMAO

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15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Delayed usually means denied around here.  If we're now talking about late Jan/early Feb, we seem to just keep kicking the can down the road.  

I'm not saying we won't score, but its starting to feel like we just keep pushing things to the right in terms of looks that translate to actual threats.

Yet just a few days ago we were looking at plenty of chances on ops and ensembles.

Interesting exercise, and I do enjoy reading the analysis, but I'm just not willing to get excited or bummed about result from even a consecutive series of suites.

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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yet just a few days ago we were looking at plenty of chances on ops and ensembles.

Interesting exercise, and I do enjoy reading the analysis, but I'm just not willing to get excited or bummed about result from even a consecutive series of suites.

Past 150 is dangerous. I’ve been saying the globals seem to hone in on synoptic level details starting around 150. Those threats evaporated right as we reached that threshold. 

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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Delayed usually means denied around here.  If we're now talking about late Jan/early Feb, we seem to just keep kicking the can down the road.  

I'm not saying we won't score, but its starting to feel like we just keep pushing things to the right in terms of looks that translate to actual threats.

We need to get cold into the pattern. The pac still looks to be more favorable to get cold back on our side soon. That’s delayed here because the initial cold goes west first but if the blocking is still there it will expand east after.  If we can hold onto the blocking after the cold gets into the pattern we will have more luck. The fail option is if the blocking breaks down then Feb will end up cold west ridge east because the epo ridge is too far west absent blocking.  Epo alone doesn’t work it needs other factors working in concert. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need to get cold into the pattern. The pac still looks to be more favorable to get cold back on our side soon. That’s delayed here because the initial cold goes west first but if the blocking is still there it will expand east after.  If we can hold onto the blocking after the cold gets into the pattern we will have more luck. The fail option is if the blocking breaks down then Feb will end up cold west ridge east because the epo ridge is too far west absent blocking.  Epo alone doesn’t work it needs other factors working in concert. 

NAO seems to have staying power so I'm still bullish on our chances (not talking KU but keeping expectations in check on warning event) even if this exercise is frustrating AF.  

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Confirmation of what we’ve been saying for a while. 

 

I read this to say it was expected and not a fail but that's just me. Seems like some expected more out of the pattern when it never really was set up to succeed. I'm sure I'm reading it wrong though...oh well

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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I read this to say it was expected and not a fail but that's just me. Seems like some expected more out of the pattern when it never really was set up to succeed. I'm sure I'm reading it wrong though...oh well

I don’t like to assume an interpretation of someone else’s thoughts. That’s possible but I do know weeks ago he was implying he felt optimistic for January snowfall so I read it to be more about the “total” part. He takes a much more global view then IMBY. Parts of the southern plains and Deep South have had one of their snowiest winters in forever. But again...I don’t want to put any words in anyone else’s mouth. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t like to assume an interpretation of someone else’s thoughts. That’s possible but I do know he was implying he felt optimistic for January so I read it to be more about the “total” part. He takes a much more global view then IMBY. Parts of the southern plains and Deep South have had one of their snowiest winters in forever. But again...I don’t want to put any words in anyone else’s mouth. 

Late January is what I read from him

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