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Chicago Storm

Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion

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18 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Don't let MchenrySnow know were in the shaft zone again

I'm just surprised they went so gung-ho with the 2-4" area considering no models really seem to indicate it.  

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1 hour ago, vortex said:

Could be a nice little event here and for Hoosier.

78A2123B-5E78-41D8-8F43-44D1740FC4F8.png

It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic.  I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2"

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic.  I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2"

There may be some localized 4" areas, but it's gonna have to really overperform. LOT usually is more on the conservative side so I was surprised by this forecast. 

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It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic.  I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2"

More complete write-up in my AFD today, but a few points here: we think the Kuchera ratios are low-balling tomorrow. Kuchera is based off the max wet bulb T from sfc to 500 mb, and warmest temps will be at the sfc.  

 

 

The flaw in the method is that when the DGZ is deep like tomorrow but sfc temps not that cold, it doesn't adjust for favorably deep DGZ, it's strictly based off MaxT aloft. The Cobb method is preferred and averages 15:1, which is what WPC also preferred in their assessment, while the Kuchera is only 9 or 10:1.

 

ECMWF and NAMs have been in good agreement on that corridor of up to or slightly over 0.2" LE, which should fluff up to spots of 3"+ when accounting for the ratio. Our graphic is using a little bit of creative license because in reality the highest total I forecast within the CWA is 2.8", but we went broad in public facing message because if that 0.2"+ LE does occur, then 3"+ amounts are pretty likely.

 

Another wild card is lake enhancement, which actually looks fairly decent for once. We'll see shortly what 00z CAMs show but the 18z NAMs and 12z NMM showed a wind shift to north behind sfc trough passage, which really increases the convergence, plus thermos being solid enough. Above models got the lake enhancement onto IL side for a few hours and then settled into NW IN. Could be a nice bonus wherever that sets up. 219a4a1cdfc1113e87465cd0a7c1a061.jpg&key=993edda28a653e3bccd982eb5a010fa3dc9b9e902e0dab7ca0434778d9f5a283

 

 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

Slight north trend with banding placement for tomorrow among hi res guidance? 

bring it.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like tonight's wave will be the best of the multi-day event for this area.  Should get at least an inch of fresh snow after midnight, but wouldn't be surprised to see here or nearby make a run at 2"

how is your glacier doing lol?

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

how is your glacier doing lol?

Pretty good, about 4" or so.  That epic sleetstorm and subsequent glazing did wonders, plus we've stayed below 40 the past few weeks.

Getting some snizzle now as lift is slowly increasing.  Models have backed off ever so slightly on precip, so getting 2" tonight may be a stretch.  Should still get a good inch hopefully.

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Looks like today’s wave will end up further north than modeled. Instead of along/just south of I-80 being favored, I-80 up to I-90 will be instead.


.

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Nice band on radar, just missing here to the north by mere miles. Looks like whoever gets under that, wins the derby in the LOT CWA. Think Hoosier has a good chance.

We did better than expected here yesterday morning, so guess we can't win them all. :D

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Trailing band over us now, cotton balls falling. Best will be just to the north of here, but whoever gets under these bands for a time will do relatively well. :snowing:

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1 minute ago, Baum said:

who knew you could be underwhelmed when expecting an inch plus?

The sun just came out and we’re above freezing now! lol

0.25” fell and now melting. smdh. 

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Snow has been melting off of paved surfaces despite temps below freezing.  The driveways/sidewalks are all clear from what I can see.  

Still don't have to shovel.  Lol

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Six straight hours of snow and still snowing. Total accumulation?  zero  A microcosm of the winter of 2020-21 here. :ee:

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