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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Jan '18? Although that was a cold antecedent airmass. 

That wasn’t widespread 20+. More like 12-18 with a few lolli’s higher I think. Also that storm wasn’t cold really. Temps like 25-30 in many areas to start. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. 

Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets. 

No argument there...but if you want high-end events in January,  then you need arctic air.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That wasn’t widespread 20+. More like 12-18 with a few lolli’s higher I think. Also that storm wasn’t cold really. Temps like 25-30 in many areas to start. 

Ah, thanks, my memory is off. I thought we'd had a record cold air mass leading into it.

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38 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Ah, thanks, my memory is off. I thought we'd had a record cold air mass leading into it.

It was frigid that NYE and NYD however, and the first couple days of the new year(2018).

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Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Holy crap. That's seriously legit, strong s/ws. Anyone have Jan 2015 H5 maps handy? Just curious, I though that one was similar in terms of polar stream s/w location. Manitoba origin.

That has nuke written all over it...hook those two up 100x, and the angle of the dangle would have been better each and every one of them.

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2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

GEM is a pretty messy setup and still almost scores. Slow dancing s/w under a massive block. That would be one hell of an angular momentum problem.

I feel like the Euro left the most on the table....that phase was underwhelming. A bit cleaner and more proficient phase would author another Kocin volume.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Surface prog be damned, take notice of this. Frankly, I'm surprised that wasn't a more extreme solution, as it looks as though the phase was kind of dirty...

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-z500_anom-0215200.png

There is time to mend the sloppy phase.  Tips been talking about this time frame.  He also talked himself out of it earlier but there is time to mend that too.  As soon as I saw the northern stream vort, I said “hello...what have we here? A welcome guest unlooked for.” 

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EPS going for more Greenland ridging after day 10 and losing Davis Straits block. Also has a good Pacific. Seems like a good combo for getting some cold and winter weather in here.

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