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January 2021

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06z GFS and its ensemble mean got better overnight, while the EURO was garbage and the UKMET was garbage.  The biggest difference in the models is the lobe of PV vorticity/vortex that hangs around the GRT Lakes on the UKMET AND EURO guidance while the GFS and ensemble mean pushes the vortex to the north and has no impact.  My best guess is lean the GFS and ensembles with this situation.  I am guessing that the PV low does not phase with the storm.

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Interesting developments last night. Looks like storm 1 just fizzles out. Storm 2 crushes the mid Atlantic on the gfs. Kind of meh on the euro, but doesn’t matter much at this stage. That was a big move on the gfs. Maybe it ends up as a blue balls scraper, but we’ll see. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. 

Ya know... That's what we've been saying about the last several storms. They have either fizzled or scooted off to our south. Doesn't look like we are getting any of these. Might it push north.... Slightest of possibilities. Although I do appreciate your enthusiasm in this horrible pattern ( which was supposed to be so good for us ). Totally like last year... I can't believe I'm saying this. Uugghh. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. 

Just not our year it seems...I was just looking at my FB memories plastered with the 2016 blizzard stuff, maybe the 29th could be similar placement? One things for certain we might not know the answer to the 29th until we are past the 26th ordeal ..

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3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know... That's what we've been saying about the last several storms. They have either fizzled or scooted off to our south. Doesn't look like we are getting any of these. Might it push north.... Slightest of possibilities. Although I do appreciate your enthusiasm in this horrible pattern ( which was supposed to be so good for us ). Totally like last year... I can't believe I'm saying this. Uugghh. 

I’ve been trying to keep the spirits up. Whining doesn’t accomplish anything...I tell that to my kids so gotta practice what I preach myself. It’s been an awful stretch, no doubt, but it’s not like it’s been 2012ish bad. There’s been some ill timed stuff that has boned us. I still like pur chances moving forward, yea I know that line has been on repeat since Jan 1st it seems but there is no way we get shutout next 30 days, no way. I’ll quit the board for a full calendar year if we do. 

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not much there for the 29th to climb the coast. Gfs seems like the max/best solution and that’s never a good thing. 

I kind of like seeing the GFS make these moves. In any case, that was a big shift. It wouldn't take much for a good band to scrape the S coast.

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At least the op runs are more active into Feb. I see all sorts of types from redevelopers to cutters. For those who said they wanted to take their chances, looks like you might.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I kind of like seeing the GFS make these moves. In any case, that was a big shift. It wouldn't take much for a good band to scrape the S coast.

Especially since the deformation bands seem to be further northwest then modeled in these large nor'easters.  The 06z EURO seemed to push the vortex over Central Southern Canada towards Central Hudson Bay instead of towards eastern Ontario.  That is a good sign and if the trend continues into the 12z runs, this is what we want to see.

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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Just not our year it seems...I was just looking at my FB memories plastered with the 2016 blizzard stuff, maybe the 29th could be similar placement? One things for certain we might not know the answer to the 29th until we are past the 26th ordeal ..

Funny you mention that because I told my brother last night it has that vibe. A Roanoke to Philly special for 5 days then it makes a little climb north inside d2 to get it to the south coast of sne. These southern vorts tend to trend nw so we’ll watch it closely. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I kind of like seeing the GFS make these moves. In any case, that was a big shift. It wouldn't take much for a good band to scrape the S coast.

You right. Not like it’s D3 either so we still have time to will it north. But it would be nice if Dr No became a little friendlier The UK not even having the system isn’t helping either.

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18 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks like the arctic express coming down near the end of that GFS run.  Daytime high of -30F in ND and -40F at night.

-32 at KMSP is pushing into record territory there.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You right. Not like it’s D3 either so we still have time to will it north. But it would be nice if Dr No became a little friendlier The UK not even having the system isn’t helping either.

Ukie blows this far out and I could care less what it shows. Euro op too. EPS is more stable and I don’t like seeing that, but we’ll see if the 6z eps makes any changes. In the end it’s probably blue balls, but even the gfs was a few inches here, mostly OES.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

South coast specials and OES. Great .. that helps most of the forum 

Might not be anything though. But, I'll gladly take a few inches if it were to happen.

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell everything 

Yep, with you there. That deal on the 29th especially leaps out as one of those systems that tantalizes for a few runs and then ends up with the deform kissing the south coast of Long Island. Not buying in to this.

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31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve been trying to keep the spirits up. Whining doesn’t accomplish anything...I tell that to my kids so gotta practice what I preach myself. It’s been an awful stretch, no doubt, but it’s not like it’s been 2012ish bad. There’s been some ill timed stuff that has boned us. I still like pur chances moving forward, yea I know that line has been on repeat since Jan 1st it seems but there is no way we get shutout next 30 days, no way. I’ll quit the board for a full calendar year if we do. 

Man, I know you're right. I'm a dad too, I'm very optimistic 95% of the time. Just been having my doubts as of late. But, if you noticed at the end of my host that I threw a teeny bit of optimism in there LOL. I'm always the first one to say to everybody else stop being so pessimistic, my bad from my post. You're right and I know that something will break which will make us all happy. Thanks for the slap back down to reality

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Yep, with you there. That deal on the 29th especially leaps out as one of those systems that tantalizes for a few runs and then ends up with the deform kissing the south coast of Long Island. Not buying in to this.

Just like the previous 5.Theres zero to track or look forward to 

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18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man, I know you're right. I'm a dad too, I'm very optimistic 95% of the time. Just been having my doubts as of late. But, if you noticed at the end of my host that I threw a teeny bit of optimism in there LOL. I'm always the first one to say to everybody else stop being so pessimistic, my bad from my post. You're right and I know that something will break which will make us all happy. Thanks for the slap back down to reality

Oh. I Didn’t think you were whining. I was making a generalized statement pointing to the vibe in here over the past couple weeks. Peeps are frustrated, understandably...but we have a long ways to go. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh. I Didn’t think you were whining. I was making a generalized statement pointing to the vibe in here over the past couple weeks. Peeps are frustrated, understandably...but we have a long ways to go. 

Unlike the op runs back near New Years, the recent runs are much more active. Yeah maybe not everything is snow, but it certainly looks more active. 

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