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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runs
This is something to watch

Notice where the temperate change boundary line is on the 6z GEFS, the low tracks EAST of the Apps, up through Greenvillee9d761d8cf86ad57ee1cead1ebf7f986.jpg

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Interesting that 12z ICON shows main low tracking across the gulf again and not cutting on us. The wedge didn't build in quick enough, but this shows models still have some figuring out to do. 

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3 minutes ago, NTriadwx said:

No, we shouldn't.

So severe weather that is more damaging to property should be ignored ok got it. 

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20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

So severe weather that is more damaging to property should be ignored ok got it. 

:wacko2: I will say @wncsnow I’d also be intrigued if we could get a good flood event in..... and literally as soon as I typed that Eyeroll emoji it became a Monsoon outside.... I have cursed the entire forum it seems lmao 

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

So severe weather that is more damaging to property should be ignored ok got it. 

From what I've seen, I don't believe severe weather is going to be an issue. Flooding possibly. Flooding is always a possibility with all the rain we've gotten lately, so what else is new? I just think no one wants to talk about severe weather in the middle of winter when the chances are low. Tell me if I'm wrong. 

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7 minutes ago, NTriadwx said:

From what I've seen, I don't believe severe weather is going to be an issue. Flooding possibly. Flooding is always a possibility with all the rain we've gotten lately, so what else is new? I just think no one wants to talk about severe weather in the middle of winter when the chances are low. Tell me if I'm wrong. 

It doesn’t matter if nobody wants to talk about it, there’s probably a greater chance of severe weather than winter weather at this point.

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3 minutes ago, NTriadwx said:

From what I've seen, I don't believe severe weather is going to be an issue. Flooding possibly. Flooding is always a possibility with all the rain we've gotten lately, so what else is new? I just think no one wants to talk about severe weather in the middle of winter when the chances are low. Tell me if I'm wrong. 

You're not wrong about people not wanting to talk about rain in winter but there will be severe weather. There is even a slight risk today for part of the upstate. We will be looking at some strong lows going up the TN Valley and be in the warmer SE quadrant, especially piedmont and coastal plain areas. 

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37 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

:wacko2: I will say @wncsnow I’d also be intrigued if we could get a good flood event in..... and literally as soon as I typed that Eyeroll emoji it became a Monsoon outside.... I have cursed the entire forum it seems lmao 

There are at least 4 different waves of rain the next week. Today/tonight, Saturday, maybe even Sunday, Tuesday then later next week another strong low. Rays weather posted this graphic with 6 to 8 inches of rain over most of SC and some of NC. 

FB_IMG_1613064436148.jpg

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4 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Coincidentally, my Tempest station just now detected lightning about 17 miles from here.

I have a friend that works at PTIA said they just took a strike

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14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

There are at least 4 different waves of rain the next week. Today/tonight, Saturday, maybe even Sunday, Tuesday then later next week another strong low. Rays weather posted this graphic with 6 to 8 inches of rain over most of SC and some of NC. 

FB_IMG_1613064436148.jpg

I think even with our 3/1 ratios someone could’ve scored here 

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