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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

Looks like we're gonna go from freezing rain to snow. we dont usually go in that order. 

The cold is for real, but it bleeds in slow coming from that trajectory. It looks like the boundary stalls out to our south and several weak waves of low pressure ride up over it. Are there several impulses that get ejected this way or does this evolve into one major storm? To me this could just as easily be a setup for long duration icing event with overrunning precip and maybe it does trend from ice to snow as deeper colder infiltrates our area. 

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1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

The cold is for real, but it bleeds in slow coming from that trajectory. It looks like the boundary stalls out to our south and several weak waves of low pressure ride up over it. Are there several impulses that get ejected this way or does this evolve into one major storm? To me this could just as easily be a setup for long duration icing event with overrunning precip and maybe it does trend from ice to snow as deeper colder infiltrates our area. 

If the wave digs into Mexico like that and it stays positive tilt, with a slight SE ridge flex, then yeah it’s just a long duration overrunning event

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Everybody take a deep breath on these OP runs. These are the same models that have squashed multiple systems this season only to bring them back within 48-72 hrs. They’re also the same models that have swung from 60s to 30s and back and forth for highs less than 4-5 days out. 

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8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

If we get that much ice and these temps come in afterwards it would be devastating. 

I was in NE Georgia in Cumming for an ice storm 5-6 years ago and it didn’t get above freezing for two days afterward. I was working for Sawnee EMC at the time and we kept having trees falling in lines we’d just re-hung as the ice wasn’t melting. Trees probably fell for 48 hours straight. Some places up there were in the dark for 10 days. It was bad

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Like others have said, think the thing to takeaway is that there’s definitely a threat for a potential long duration event next weekend. Upside could be quite high in terms of snow/ice totals if the cards fall right. 
 

Let’s see if the EPS signal increases. Longggg ways to go (see the model changes inside 96 hours for this weekend) 

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