• Member Statistics

    16,739
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DirectSEO
    Newest Member
    DirectSEO
    Joined
yoda

January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Dudnt know if you saw my previous post about the Eps eastern outlier members are gone 

Subtle but  step in the right direction here with the NS piece trying to drop in/phase earlier imo. Compare it to 0z.

1610150400-5kQyv35tfL4.png

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like we lost the eastern outliers on the 6z Eps which is good .

Depends...did we gain any western outliers?  Goalpost tightening will happen as you get closer but if you’re outside the goalposts that won’t help. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely a baby bump nw . We take 

Snow will make it to EZF before collapsing SE.  my early call because I’ve seen it happen before.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Subtle but  step in the right direction here with the NS piece trying to drop in/phase earlier imo. Compare it to 0z.

1610150400-5kQyv35tfL4.png

 

You got the 0z?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This weekend deal seems highly dependent upon that piece of energy in the ns that rotates around just at the right time. As far as I can tell that comes from the gulf of Alaska region originally. It isn’t a stretch to think that could end differently in reality as opposed to what is modeled.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This weekend deal seems highly dependent upon that piece of energy in the ns that rotates around just at the right time. As far as I can tell that comes from the gulf of Alaska region originally. It isn’t a stretch to think that could end differently in reality as opposed to what is modeled.

I agree. There was enough of a shift between the 0z and 6z Euro to make a small difference, and it doesn't show up as well but can be seen on the mean. Unless it ends up being weaker/lifting out quicker,  we need that shortwave further west/southwest to partially phase sooner. That will tug the low further NW. That is what the good runs of the Para were doing btw.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless I am reading it wrong the para is further NW at 6z.  Way better for weekend.  CAPE confirm this kind sir

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Unless I am reading it wrong the para is further NW at 6z.  Way better for weekend.  CAPE confirm this kind sir

It’s better but I wouldn’t say good. Also looks faster

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s better but I wouldn’t say good. Also looks faster

 

For the 8/9 system I'm thinking I bail or celebrate by 0z Wednesday runs

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

For the 8/9 system I'm thinking I bail or celebrate by 0z Wednesday runs

Yeah, maybe Wed morning 12z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just my 2c but I think our best bet would be for the NS energy to trend weaker or just go away.  The 50/50 placement/shape hasn't really changed and I dont see how we could ever get that NS piece to drop far enough west.  Its gonna rotate around the 50/50 and that feature is being modeled pretty consistently across most guidance. 

I am sure there are other minor features that could change the final motion of that NS piece but due to my amateur eye nothing is sticking out to me.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s better but I wouldn’t say good. Also looks faster

 

Yeah but it looked better for me. I’m a bit further south than you.  Little ticks help my cause 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just my 2c but I think our best bet would be for the NS energy to trend weaker or just go away.  The 50/50 placement/shape hasn't really changed and I dont see how we could ever get that NS piece to drop far enough west.  Its gonna rotate around the 50/50 and that feature is being modeled pretty consistently across most guidance. 

I am sure there are other minor features that could change the final motion of that NS piece but due to my amateur eye nothing is sticking out to me.  

I agree. In order to get that piece to phase quicker I would think it would have to be a more potent piece to begin with and it doesn’t look to be that. It’s also noteworthy that this piece is currently modeled nowhere closer to what it was just a couple of days ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That vort you guys talking about actually originates from the same shortwave that the main ULL does. It breaks off once it hits the Pac coast. Then it eventually  crosses Canada and is forced south by the 50/50. Our shortwave will be onshore by 18z today so hopefully the 18z runs look good

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree. In order to get that piece to phase quicker I would think it would have to be a more potent piece to begin with and it doesn’t look to be that. It’s also noteworthy that this piece is currently modeled nowhere closer to what it was just a couple of days ago.

What's amazing is that piece is pretty weak and insignificant when it enters the west coast but it still plows right through the block and re-emerges to meet up with the 50/50.  I guess another possible trend would be that the blocking over Hudson Bay shreds/weakens it. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What's amazing is that piece is pretty weak and insignificant when it enters the west coast but it still plows right through the block and re-emerges to meet up with the 50/50.  I guess another possible trend would be that the blocking over Hudson Bay shreds/weakens it. 

Wondering if at some point during the next eight weeks we get an event that was poorly modeled because the disturbance came from the Northern Jet and a data sparse region, some metal talked about that early in the season,  just wondering if that might actually be the case down the road.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering if at some point during the next eight weeks we get an event that was poorly modeled because the disturbance came from the Northern Jet and a data sparse region, some metal talked about that early in the season,  just wondering if that might actually be the case down the road.

I also wonder if the scattershot of sw's calms down a bit once we see the west coast ridging start to pop.  Like PSU said...certainly not a long track pattern.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering if at some point during the next eight weeks we get an event that was poorly modeled because the disturbance came from the Northern Jet and a data sparse region, some metal talked about that early in the season,  just wondering if that might actually be the case down the road.

It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us. 

The improvement of satellite derived data has helped a lot. Of course, having a balloon or other sounding is the gold standard - but modern weather satellites can sample those "data sparse" regions pretty well at this point. I would agree that the days of using that as an explanation are mostly behind us. Add in aircraft data and you've got a nice data suite available for the models even without having balloon launches everywhere. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The improvement of satellite derived data has helped a lot. Of course, having a balloon or other sounding is the gold standard - but modern weather satellites can sample those "data sparse" regions pretty well at this point. I would agree that the days of using that as an explanation are mostly behind us. Add in aircraft data and you've got a nice data suite available for the models even without having balloon launches everywhere. 

But how much airplane data is there these days?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ajb said:

But how much airplane data is there these days?

Plenty. 

https://www.flightradar24.com/42.95,-108.11/4

We are way up from the lows during the period earlier in 2020 when flights grinded to a halt. Even with less traveling, the airlines are required to maintain minimum levels of service in many cases. Sure, there's probably cancelations and such - but airplanes are still flying every day. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Ralph Wiggum - I think your comment also applies to the people who refer to 6z and 18z as "off runs" and then use that basis to throw them out if they don't show what the weenies like. Plenty of new data is assimilated into the models on off hours. Sure - not the 12z and 00z balloons....but it's not like it's "stale" data. But...weenies gonna weenie. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Plenty. 

https://www.flightradar24.com/42.95,-108.11/4

We are way up from the lows during the period earlier in 2020 when flights grinded to a halt. Even with less traveling, the airlines are required to maintain minimum levels of service in many cases. Sure, there's probably cancelations and such - but airplanes are still flying every day. 

That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is confirming in the week 2 period that the SPV and coldest temperatures will shift over to Eurasia with the SSW. So we just need to work on getting it cold enough for snow with the right storm track. Maybe there could be some Arctic air by later in the month if heights build enough north of Alaska.

 

Yeah but with a good enough Pacific and blocking, we shouldn't have too much of a problem getting cold air to drain from Eurasia to the eastern U.S.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed. 

I know this is OT - but I'll quickly add that they have a mobile app that even has a "augmented reality" feature where you can point your phone camera around and it'll show you the flights on your screen that are visible in your line-of-sight. You won't see military flights on there for the most part, but commercial, Project Loon balloons, and recreational aircraft all show up. It's been helpful when I hear a helicopter fly low over and I'm trying to figure out who it is. 

If nothing else, goes to show you that even when air travel is "slow" there's still a crap ton of planes flying around up there.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.