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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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GEFS has been trending that way for a few runs now. EPS still looks ok, but we all know the PAC is precarious, and we also know a gigantic, perfectly placed, sustained west based -NAO is not likely to materialize and completely save us. We are going to have to navigate a pattern with warts in the coming weeks, and hopefully we get a few chances, just like always.

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4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Of course it's true. The models are deadly accurate when it comes to screwing us. 

Last time they did that in early December it was wrong. The vortex never fully shifted and the pattern never broke down. So I wouldn’t assume yet. But the trend the last 24 hours has been pretty brutal. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last time they did that in early December it was wrong. The vortex never fully shifted and the pattern never broke down. So I wouldn’t assume yet. But the trend the last 24 hours has been pretty brutal. 

Extended GEFS suggests its temporary. Keep in mind the latest run is from 0z yesterday.

1610582400-QTLETFbDpHo.png

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You should visit @WxWatcher007 or take a road trip to the Tughill region of NY.

We'll have chances over the next 4 weeks. Not going to be wall-to-wall. Just have to have patience and the windows will present themselves eventually.

I was thinking of chasing the LES today but with holidays and work just can’t do it. I’ll have another chase worthy storm at some point.

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I looked at the individual members on the 0z GEFS for later in the run, and the east coast ridge "look" under the block depicted on the mean is largely a function of spread. There is a camp that has a pronounced trough out west, and some that may be amplifying a storm in the central US during that time frame. Another camp is not suggestive of higher h5 heights in the east at all. We just cant know yet.

Patience.

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Just now, CAPE said:

I looked at the induvial members on the 0z GEFS for later in the run, and the east coast ridge "look" under the block depicted on the mean is largely a function of spread. There is a camp that has a pronounced trough out west, and some that may be amplifying a storm in the central US during that time frame. Another camp is not suggestive of higher h5 heights in the east at all. We just cant know yet.

Patience.

Go with the Warner solution.  Always. 

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2 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

so we have a -ao/-nao/+pna,  and yet all storms cut west of chicago for the next two weeks?  teleconnections are basically meaningless if that's how we roll now.

The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The calculated numbers aren't always indicative of the placement/timing/interplay of the key features, and the actual influence on sensible weather. That being said, it is possible that the pattern might need to be more "perfect" in order to get a favorable outcome than in the past, especially for places with borderline climo for snow. That is mostly speculation at this point though.

well, in this case, it appears the rain/snow line for these storms is west of chicago.  montreal, quebec and even labrador are getting rain.

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