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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay
RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Lurker on this thread, originally from College Point Queens, been working at NWS Chicago since 2010. Jealous of this storm, as it's been exceptionally boring out here and big snowstorms like Superstor

jbenedet
jbenedet

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.  The temp drops thro

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The high doesn’t mean much for how far the sleet advances. Those are mid level lows which determine that. 

This needs to be repeated a million times for those who keep talking about surface temperatures and the track of the surface low. The mid levels are what will keep this from being a major snow event around the city, or not if the warm tongue is being overestimated which I doubt based on experience. Sleet almost always seems to advance faster than modelled around these parts.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
Just now, jm1220 said:

Here's the dual-pol radar site which we'll be praying to, bargaining with, pleading to, cursing at, etc tonight sometime around NYC. Bookmark it and the game is that we avoid the yellow sleet line as long as we can. Yellow line-evil. 

COD NEXRAD: DIX

The sleet glaze and strong winds will make this storm more dangerous than had it been a plain snowstorm. 

So yes that line will be evil in more ways than one because surface temperatures will likely stay below freezing + we're heading into nighttime hours. 

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted

Somewhat torn on how much of an impact the mid level warming has on the immediate NYC metro.  Experience over the past several years tells me to assume it will be more than expected (a la NAM for this storm) so I will do just that if only to temper expectations. Will be happy with 7-9 here in Manhattan.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The sleet glaze and strong winds will make this storm more dangerous than had it been a plain snowstorm. 

So yes that line will be evil in more ways than one because surface temperatures will likely stay below freezing + we're heading into nighttime hours. 

Sleet is annoying at the time but it also helps retain the snow pack for longer. Makes it much denser and freezes it solid. And yes just as slick to drive on etc as snow, just doesn't pile up nearly as fast. Sleet is 3:1 liquid ratio. 

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wishcast_hater

wishcast_hater

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

This needs to be repeated a million times for those who keep talking about surface temperatures and the track of the surface low. The mid levels are what will keep this from being a major snow event around the city, or not if the warm tongue is being overestimated which I doubt based on experience. Sleet almost always seems to advance faster than modelled around these parts.

I have experienced sleet with temps in the teens. Talk about frustrating. Now I’m in Dutchess so I should be sitting pretty tonight. 

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the_other_guy

the_other_guy

Posted
Posted

Just to throw this out there... Does anybody remember the Valentine’s Day storm? All sleet. Awesome storm. Stayed around for a long time.

All of a sudden this forum that likes winter weather is so anti-sleet. You get a few hours of snow and several hours of sleet and you are in winter storm nirvana because that snowpack isnt going anywhere for a long time

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

This needs to be repeated a million times for those who keep talking about surface temperatures and the track of the surface low. The mid levels are what will keep this from being a major snow event around the city, or not if the warm tongue is being overestimated which I doubt based on experience. Sleet almost always seems to advance faster than modelled around these parts.

It's brutal. Even in Jan 2011 it turned over fairly quick, but we had about 5 inches already. The main show arrived after it switched back to snow. I'm not confident it's that kind of scenario this time based on what I've been reading here. 1.) sleet arriving faster than expected in the mid-Atlantic and 2.) warm air aloft during the storm and 3.) possible shifts to easterly flow at times. I have been criticized here ( fairly ) but I have seen sleet both arrive faster and advance much further than forecast more than once.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just to throw this out there... Does anybody remember the Valentine’s Day storm? All sleet. Awesome storm. Stayed around for a long time.

All of a sudden this forum that likes winter weather is so anti-sleet. You get a few hours of snow and several hours of sleet and you are in winter storm nirvana because that snowpack isnt going anywhere for a long time

Well that was just plain sleet for the entire storm in these parts. And really nothing much else that whole winter. PA and far NW had all the snow. This may be similar but coming at the start of the season isn't as heartbreaking as coming near the end after a prolonged snow drought....

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just to throw this out there... Does anybody remember the Valentine’s Day storm? All sleet. Awesome storm. Stayed around for a long time.

All of a sudden this forum that likes winter weather is so anti-sleet. You get a few hours of snow and several hours of sleet and you are in winter storm nirvana because that snowpack isnt going anywhere for a long time

I think had 7" of pure sleet it was insane.

Absolute nightmare on the roads and trying to shovel that crap.

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Jeff Grann

Jeff Grann

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Majority of snow falls before a quick hit of sleet on the coast.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18 (1).png

When have you ever seen a low hug the coast that far North that resulted in a "brief period of sleet"? As depicted, warm air in the mid levels would fly North way before that frame. Better chance of an ice storm there with the stronger high than snow

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