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December 11th-12th Potential Winter Storm


Thundersnow12
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0z Euro tonight still looks decently solid so figured why not. 

Surface temps look marginal during most of the event but potential for a fairly juiced system overall (2.00"+ QPF over Cook county this run) and an area of some good snow amounts on the NW side looks possible. 

System of interest is still well out over the northern PAC and wont come ashore till Thursday evening.

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12z Nam is further north. Looks like a decent hit for Iowa with widespread 4-8". A bit too far north for Milwaukee though. However, with a strong HP across Quebec, I suspect models are downplaying surface temperatures. Wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain in some areas. 

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Not too surprised to see how things have trended for the Chicago area. Going to have to see significant changes tonight and tomorrow to have hope of getting decent snows into the heart of the metro and south metro. At this point, far north and northwest metro clearly has best shot.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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If you're in northern DVN to northwest 1/3 or so of LOT to MKX, have to like where you sit at this point. For points south, if weaker and southeast trend from last winter resumes, not sure that really helps because the strong dynamics are an important factor in getting the potential 6"+ accums.

 

 

 

 

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Feel like mby or somewhere in the vicinity is going to be the cutoff, on a NE/SW orientation towards Waukegan; like what the euro is showing.

I don’t remember the last time a rain to snow with garbage thermals really panned out, so I am leaning towards a white rain solution with maybe a dusting on the back end. A stronger system puts us solidly into rain, and like RC eluded, a weaker system takes away the dynamics and we get solutions similar to what the GFS was throwing out 5-6 runs ago. 

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19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Feel like mby or somewhere in the vicinity is going to be the cutoff, on a NE/SW orientation towards Waukegan; like what the euro is showing.

I don’t remember the last time a rain to snow with garbage thermals really panned out, so I am leaning towards a white rain solution with maybe a dusting on the back end. A stronger system puts us solidly into rain, and like RC eluded, a weaker system takes away the dynamics and we get solutions similar to what the GFS was throwing out 5-6 runs ago. 

I'm pretty much on that line with you, I suspect.

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snippet from Chicago NWS

The primary forecast challenges in the extended period continue
to focus on the evolution of a storm system that is likely to
impact the area late Friday through Saturday night. This storm
system promises to bring a significant amount of precipitation to
the area, but mainly with most of it falling as rain over central
and eastern IL into northwestern IN. However, the potential
exists for significant snow accumulations for at least parts of
far northwestern into far north central IL and points northward
into WI. Therefore, we could see a very sharp gradient between
significant snow, and little to no snow somewhere right across
northern IL, possible even nearing parts of the western/
northwestern suburbs of Chicago.

Model and ensemble guidance is in decent agreement with surface
low pressure taking shape over the southern Plains on Friday in
response to the approach of the upper level low currently off the
Baja of California coast. The exact track of the surface low is
always key to determine where the accumulating snow will fall.
Current indications continue to support a northeast track of the
low from near STL early Saturday morning, to northwestern IN early
Saturday afternoon. This track, would favor the main area of
accumulating snowfall to be roughly across my northwestern areas,
namely the Rockford metro area and possibly as far southeast as
parts of the far northwestern Chicago suburbs. Mainly a rain event
looks to be in store for much of the rest of the region. We will
have to continue to watch this closely as even a minor shift in
the expected track could change this scenario, so stay tuned!

 

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