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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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6 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I'm currently in Philipsburg. Snow squalls are real. 

yep...I think it snowed here everyday (t-2" Each day) since sunday except for 1 day.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Cumberland Valley special Stephen.  :)

Shall I say it? ... It's the NAM out at 84.  But I can enjoy it for a little while.  Boy what a change from the 18Z run.

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Cumberland Valley special Stephen.  :)

I do not like being on the southern edge...does not inspire confidence.

The southern edge is south of the MD line...even southern York and Lancaster get a few inches this run according to the long range NAM.

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The southern edge is south of the MD line...even southern York and Lancaster get a few inches this run according to the long range NAM.

The 2" line is 30 miles south of my house. The southern edge has been moving north with every model run. I'm about out of room.

The southern edge usually fails, as well. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The 2" line is 30 miles south of my house. The southern edge has been moving north with every model run. I'm about out of room.

The southern edge usually fails, as well. 

The 10 inch line is also less than 30 miles to your north... this could go either way depending on how the final details lock in.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I don’t think anyone in CTP is getting 10 inches of snow out of this. I think it will end up as a general 3 to 6 inch CTP wide event.

That was what I told my daughter and grandson earlier today. I don't see it being more than 6 inches. At least not widespread. Perhaps a lollipop or two.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree on the 3-6" - not sure that will cover the entire CTP region.

I think that the areas that mix or change over will still be able to squeeze out an event total of 3 inches of snow on the front & back ends of the event.

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3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

OMG!  18" of snow from the SECOND storm (Cumberland Cty).  24" total for the 2 events!!  I'm about to faint...lol.

sn10_024h.us_ne.png

 

I was getting some sleep in anticipation of the busy weather week ahead. 
This map was incredible to see when I just woke up! Wow!

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The 6z GFS also has the Thursday coastal storm! 
It shows the look the CTP snow lovers dream of seeing on a map. Strong High pressure to the north and a strengthening low over the DelMarVa.

 

B710A2A9-AACD-45A8-9860-DC1A20CB6915.png

41D39E73-8FC1-414A-BB9D-B9CE6E92CC2E.png

3DD3A75F-10AE-4DC4-91B9-D2F7017856EF.png

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Oh please....

Anything but this. I'd rather smoke cirrus or have a 100% rainer than the whole gauntlet of wintry p-types. Ugh...

Monday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow likely before noon, then snow and freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of sleet before 8pm, then a chance of snow between 8pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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25 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Oh please....

Anything but this. I'd rather smoke cirrus or have a 100% rainer than the whole gauntlet of wintry p-types. Ugh...

Monday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
Snow likely before noon, then snow and freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of sleet before 8pm, then a chance of snow between 8pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

A little sleet & freezing rain on top helps the snow to stay around longer!

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The ensembles still favor all of CTP to get 3 to 4 inches of snow with the early week event.

From here out out, the short range models should be best to narrow the goalposts further with amounts, precip mixing, etc.

DBC4EE59-7BD0-4E54-848E-7623457B52F4.png

9D4701C2-D84D-4FD4-B793-78D5E5649C97.png

C98A0C34-F2B7-41B8-94EE-C0BD289BEA5E.png

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42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

A little sleet & freezing rain on top helps the snow to stay around longer!

It also makes the snow harder to shovel. I'm cleared for work from my shoulder surgery as long as I don't overdo it, but (and a friend from VT weighed a shovel full of wet snow and got 34 lbs) it gets too heavy right now for me to safely clean up. Straight powder is ok, but a mix is not.

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Euro seems reasonable for Monday's event. Interested to see how far north the mixed precipitation will come..

My opinion Thursday looks like a LSV event. 

At least we got some storm watching this upcoming week.

Thanks for posting the maps!!

 

22 degrees and LES flurries this morning. Coffee is tasting good.

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