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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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Just now, anotherman said:


Yes, we’ve had some big snowstorms. But that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing. Snow totals or mild winters don’t really signal climate shifts. Years and years of data do. I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore, but to completely deny that our area’s climate is changing is an opinion not based in reality.

Thanks - you explained it far better than my poor attempt. 

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2 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Yes, we’ve had some big snowstorms. But that doesn’t mean the climate isn’t changing. Snow totals or mild winters don’t really signal climate shifts. Years and years of data do. I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore, but to completely deny that our area’s climate is changing is an opinion not based in reality.

Remember when we had to walk backwards to school in 2 feet of snow every week in the winter when we were kids... 

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Just having some fun everyone!

Can we please just get excited that it might snow next week?!?!

The posts tonight are a real downer despite the current pattern and some recent model runs.

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Just having some fun everyone!
Can we please just get excited that it might snow next week?!?!
The posts tonight are a real downer despite the current pattern and some recent model runs.

I am excited! The pattern is promising. Let’s hope it delivers...
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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I am too. I said nothing negative. I added a dose of realism. 

Yes, that is a good thing!

I am just fired up about the opportunities next week. We are very much in the game, but anything is still possible for the better or worse. I think we have a good chance, but we will know more in the next few days.

This place should be very busy this week!

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, that is a good thing!

I am just fired up about the opportunities next week. We are very much in the game, but anything is still possible for the better or worse. I think we have a good chance, but we will know more in the next few days.

This place should be very busy this week!

Yep, that's what I've been saying. :) 

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50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not - this storm is all over the place. I'm prepared for zero snow, a pile of snow, or anything in between the next 10-14 days. As PSU Hoffman said earlier this evening "the Monday system has become complicated, and we don't do complicated well."

I think those are prudent words to heed. 

I'm mostly taking these systems one at a time. I see the next one later next week which has been showing on the models fairly well (in the sense of there being a decent storm being progged). Likely to be something, but we're at day 7. Like I mentioned before, par for the course that models are going to be all over the place handling the really blocky pattern we have.

We're on the cusp of way too early NAM range with our nearest threat, and as such the models are finally beginning to hone in some. A full or nearly full suppressed solution for us is a very unlikely scenario at this point IMO. This is likely to be a decent winter storm for at least a sizable portion of the subforum. The primary issues I see right now are the extent of p-type issues southern third of so of PA and QPF/northern extent once above I-80.   I think we're chasing a somewhat narrow axis of heavier snow but I also think our region is well situated for it. The setup isn't necessarily complicated. We're ejecting out a shortwave out of the very deep western trough thats going to get the squeeze play between that and the blocking/confluent pattern to our north/northeast as it gets sheared and elongated eastward. I think the western trough is a detriment to the Mid-Atl region in this setup. It allows enough heights ahead of the system to track it across a bit higher than you'd want to see it for that region. Additionally, there isn't much of surface high pressure present where you need it up over New England to really drive a CAD wedge deep into the Mid-Atl.  Otherwise, if we had this non phasing system with a western ridge paired with this strong NAO (-2 to -3 magnitude), I have a feeling we'd be watching this pass us by well to our south. And conversely, you'd have your AC on if we didn't have the blocking to counter that really strong western trough. 

At any rate, handoff to a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks pretty solid, so track/strength of the primary surface low is going to determine how much mixing along with the placement of the snow axis. Currently looking at the 0z GFS, surface low is a tad stronger and further north than 18z. With the flat trajectory of this system since it's getting forced east and reforming off the coast, this looks to be one of those setups where eastern PA may in fact be in a better place to stay mostly frozen even if the primary knocks on the door on the PA/OH border. I'm not really seeing surface and 925mb cold getting moved much at all. The 850mb push isn't very strong either and it's brief. There may be mixing issues, but north of the Mason Dixon it's likely to be mainly sleet if there is. Only SW PA really looks to see any notable liquid (mostly ZR on models). Once we get solidified on the track a bit better, we'll have to see how thermals are on short range guidance later this weekend. 

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54 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm mostly taking these systems one at a time. I see the next one later next week which has been showing on the models fairly well (in the sense of there being a decent storm being progged). Likely to be something, but we're at day 7. Like I mentioned before, par for the course that models are going to be all over the place handling the really blocky pattern we have.

We're on the cusp of way too early NAM range with our nearest threat, and as such the models are finally beginning to hone in some. A full or nearly full suppressed solution for us is a very unlikely scenario at this point IMO. This is likely to be a decent winter storm for at least a sizable portion of the subforum. The primary issues I see right now are the extent of p-type issues southern third of so of PA and QPF/northern extent once above I-80.   I think we're chasing a somewhat narrow axis of heavier snow but I also think our region is well situated for it. The setup isn't necessarily complicated. We're ejecting out a shortwave out of the very deep western trough thats going to get the squeeze play between that and the blocking/confluent pattern to our north/northeast as it gets sheared and elongated eastward. I think the western trough is a detriment to the Mid-Atl region in this setup. It allows enough heights ahead of the system to track it across a bit higher than you'd want to see it for that region. Additionally, there isn't much of surface high pressure present where you need it up over New England to really drive a CAD wedge deep into the Mid-Atl.  Otherwise, if we had this non phasing system with a western ridge paired with this strong NAO (-2 to -3 magnitude), I have a feeling we'd be watching this pass us by well to our south. And conversely, you'd have your AC on if we didn't have the blocking to counter that really strong western trough. 

At any rate, handoff to a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks pretty solid, so track/strength of the primary surface low is going to determine how much mixing along with the placement of the snow axis. Currently looking at the 0z GFS, surface low is a tad stronger and further north than 18z. With the flat trajectory of this system since it's getting forced east and reforming off the coast, this looks to be one of those setups where eastern PA may in fact be in a better place to stay mostly frozen even if the primary knocks on the door on the PA/OH border. I'm not really seeing surface and 925mb cold getting moved much at all. The 850mb push isn't very strong either and it's brief. There may be mixing issues, but north of the Mason Dixon it's likely to be mainly sleet if there is. Only SW PA really looks to see any notable liquid (mostly ZR on models). Once we get solidified on the track a bit better, we'll have to see how thermals are on short range guidance later this weekend. 

Thank you for that. Appreciate your thoughts.  

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Spot on at the moment Mag - my grid for Monday night:

"Sleet, possibly mixed with snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

Ick.

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O boy. I am not saying this to be a spineless puss but your all right and so wrong   . The bottom line is if you don't watch your carbon your not taking care of biology if bio goes we and the climate go. If you don't under stand carboron , micro based bio, or chelation you have no rights to argue CC. Get some worms, grow some mycelium and fruit it , grow your own food with organic or bio organic inputs, compost, bio remediate ,and prove you care first or you can just sit around felling high and mighty making fun of people who do or don't. At one time I had many pics and post of these teachings because it 100% relates to climate and weather.  Blizz I know you hate my guts but you have composure and class above the ding bats don't let the epidemy of the misinformed mob ruin more than they already have and are as I write. Many of you have already proved your lack of understanding and tolerance when you made fun of me with your stupid and cowardly kiddy memes. I'm not talking about snow totals here you all can believe  the lazy crowed I don't care, I am also not talking about my weather predicting tek and ability's that has been on point to mostly embarrassing , but when you make fun of what I try to teach about envro it shows a real lack of environmental knowledge and proves to me who probably should not be arguing climate change because it makes you a complete fraud and just a dumb propagandized hypocritical mouth to not take interest what i use to write. As long as CC is used a political weapon by those that have no understanding the masses will reject there duty of stewardship. The truth is so much more interesting and complex anyways. The first thing people need to understand is bio made this climate the climate did not make the bio. Bio sustains the climate the climate dose not sustain bio ,only specific bio . Once you understand this you can start down the path to truth and how we change and even remediate and reverse the cycle with bio tek. I was trying to be nice but I will say it more bluntly if you don't think going from one of the most active periods ever observed  to the longest most inactive solor period ever observed wasn't/ is not play your stupid. That said yes we all need to educate , share and turn this boat around butyour way is not the way and smart people know that brats and losers don't.  I am free of mind and spirit and no one or thing will ever take that from me like it has to so many. when she dosedecide to strart its going to just keep on coming because that's how she works every thing will average out eventually.  Besides to link suppression to cc is to link tits to a bull.

science + politics = misinformed public

 

 

 

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Things are still looking good on the latest EPS & GEFS for the early week storm chance for most of CTP.

The short range models will soon be in range to help us determine the final story on this event.

 

36A04C69-C7A2-445E-9BEF-6D6BA57D903C.png

2E3FFD15-F333-41A4-A185-B4331FF5382E.png

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CTP already is ramping up their discussion on this early week event and said this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning.

“Steady snow will likely spread northeast across the region
Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday as low pressure
moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley.”

 

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8 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm mostly taking these systems one at a time. I see the next one later next week which has been showing on the models fairly well (in the sense of there being a decent storm being progged). Likely to be something, but we're at day 7. Like I mentioned before, par for the course that models are going to be all over the place handling the really blocky pattern we have.

We're on the cusp of way too early NAM range with our nearest threat, and as such the models are finally beginning to hone in some. A full or nearly full suppressed solution for us is a very unlikely scenario at this point IMO. This is likely to be a decent winter storm for at least a sizable portion of the subforum. The primary issues I see right now are the extent of p-type issues southern third of so of PA and QPF/northern extent once above I-80.   I think we're chasing a somewhat narrow axis of heavier snow but I also think our region is well situated for it. The setup isn't necessarily complicated. We're ejecting out a shortwave out of the very deep western trough thats going to get the squeeze play between that and the blocking/confluent pattern to our north/northeast as it gets sheared and elongated eastward. I think the western trough is a detriment to the Mid-Atl region in this setup. It allows enough heights ahead of the system to track it across a bit higher than you'd want to see it for that region. Additionally, there isn't much of surface high pressure present where you need it up over New England to really drive a CAD wedge deep into the Mid-Atl.  Otherwise, if we had this non phasing system with a western ridge paired with this strong NAO (-2 to -3 magnitude), I have a feeling we'd be watching this pass us by well to our south. And conversely, you'd have your AC on if we didn't have the blocking to counter that really strong western trough. 

At any rate, handoff to a secondary low off the Mid-Atlantic coast looks pretty solid, so track/strength of the primary surface low is going to determine how much mixing along with the placement of the snow axis. Currently looking at the 0z GFS, surface low is a tad stronger and further north than 18z. With the flat trajectory of this system since it's getting forced east and reforming off the coast, this looks to be one of those setups where eastern PA may in fact be in a better place to stay mostly frozen even if the primary knocks on the door on the PA/OH border. I'm not really seeing surface and 925mb cold getting moved much at all. The 850mb push isn't very strong either and it's brief. There may be mixing issues, but north of the Mason Dixon it's likely to be mainly sleet if there is. Only SW PA really looks to see any notable liquid (mostly ZR on models). Once we get solidified on the track a bit better, we'll have to see how thermals are on short range guidance later this weekend. 

Saddest line of the whole write up.

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28 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFS looks really good (to me, an idiot) for true CPA. 

I assume you're talking the early week storm? GFS is a whiff south for the storm later in the week. (though that came north and is still a viable threat) 

It's still equally possible that southern PA sees a lot of snow next week or little to nothing. (Monday could be a little too north = Thursday could end up south) 

Edit: Shouldn't have said equal chances. Monday looks like at least some snow is likely at this point. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I assume you're talking the early week storm? GFS is a whiff south for the storm later in the week. (though that came north and is still a viable threat) 

It's still equally possible that southern PA sees a lot of snow next week or little to nothing. (Monday could be a little too north = Thursday could end up south) 

Edit: Shouldn't have said equal chances. Monday looks like at least some snow is likely at this point. 

Yeah, Monday. I ignore any second storm until the first chance passes by. 

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For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm.  Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm.  Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours.  It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours.  I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently.

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7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

For the next six hours the GFS has me as the southern jackpot for the next storm.  Both 10:1 and Kuchera give me 10", which would be fascinating if that happened because that's the same amount I had for the December storm.  Other interesting thing is that the duration of the storm is almost 36 hours.  It begins around 7:00pm Monday afternoon and doesn't stop until 1:00am Wednesday morning although the bulk of it falls during the first 24 hours.  I like storms that last for 24+ hours since that doesn't happen all that frequently.

I'd like to see models back down a bit on the primary track, as they've been creeping up toward entering the primary into western PA. Like I mentioned before, the blocking pattern forces the secondary development SE of the the primary off the Mid-Atlantic.. creating an alignment that could somewhat favor the Sus Valley between I-80 and the turnpike holding frozen longer than that same zone in the central counties. Either way, there would likely be more widespread mixing with the GFS primary low track. Plus it lags a bit in getting a secondary going. North central is starting to look like the place to be for an all snow event. I still favor primarily frozen p-types (snow/sleet) east of the Laurels though. We'll have to watch the Laurels and LSV below the turnpike for some ZR as well. If models edge back south a bit this weekend, preferably keeping the primary tracking just below the mason-dixon when transfer occurs.. this probably becomes a mostly snow event for most of the subforum. I'm also eager to see how the NAM and other short range guidance handle the thermals once it gets firmly in range later this weekend. 

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42 minutes ago, paweather said:

We haven't had a PA special for a long time, maybe Monday Night and Tuesday delivers for the state. 

Wasn't December 14 a PA special? 

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