Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, several pieces to the puzzle at this time. It’s great to even be able to discuss even the chance of snow on Christmas Eve.

If we are left with just the Ana-front potential as currently modeled, do you think that there would be enough moisture left behind the front from the trailing wave to deliver a few hour period of snow that could even put down a couple of inches of snow in the Susquehanna Valley?

I agree w showme and mag wrt anafront snow. We know it usually doesn’t end well for us. As we likely have s and sw wind with ridging out ahead of the front like mag suggested, we dont want heavy rain in addition. Goodbye snowpack. 
Let the front be dry and set the table for trailing  systems. 

im pretty convinced much of the states snowpack (except LSV) is safe for white Christmas.  I’m glad we got sleet as that should help us down here. With Upper 20’s and low 40’s it’s gonna be close for us down here. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, several pieces to the puzzle at this time. It’s great to even be able to discuss even the chance of snow on Christmas Eve.

If we are left with just the Ana-front potential as currently modeled, do you think that there would be enough moisture left behind the front from the trailing wave to deliver a few hour period of snow that could even put down a couple of inches of snow in the Susquehanna Valley?

I am not a big fan of anafront snows. Far more often then not they fail to deliver what the models promise. The stars have to pretty much align to get anything somewhat meaningful (in 50+ years I can probably count on 1 hand where there was anything noteworthy). The problem we face is that the cold that is typically tapped into is anywhere from our W to the N. So to draw this cold in we need the winds at lower levels to shift from somewhere in these general directions. When this happens we become under the influence of down sloping which quickly dries out the lower levels of the atmosphere as it heads towards the coastal plain. Now I am more familiar with southern PA and MD so I can't speak so much for central and northern PA. There may be other considerations there. 

But to answer your question. I am not really enamored with the setup for post frontal snows for Christmas. I think the models are once again overplaying the potential.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Gordo74 said:

I bought one while HD was clearing them out due to the Lowes exclusivity deal at end of summer. I have EGO everything else. I've not needed a snowblower in the 8 years I've been in this house but I'm glad I pulled the trigger this year!

It's "just" the single stage one (they came out with a 2 stage this year), but it handled the 7" and 11.5" here no issue this year so far, including the plow slush at the end of the driveway with zero - and I mean ZERO - issue. Much better than any gas blower I've used. Probably due to the torque of electric.

Here's a video from the far north which convinced me that I'd be fine to wait until the end of snow to use it last week. 

 

Thank you! I enjoy shoveling Butkus garage is in on alley that is often unplowed - doing that by hand can be a bit much!  I don’t need it and definitely don’t need the 2 stage one, but it seems like a good tool and can help my elderly neighbors. 

[canderson]

Got down to 14 here. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Isn't it amazing what a deep snowpack combined with clear skies & calm winds can do for taking the bottom out of temperatures?  This morning I recorded a low of +5.5 degrees F!  What's funny again is that my coldest minimum for all of last winter was just +9 degrees!

Thank you, @showmethesnow for your writeups.  I enjoy reading them very much and look forward to reading more in the days/weeks ahead!

[kerplunk]

Temps rose here overnight. Was at 13º at 10:30pm and 20º at sunrise. No radiational cooling at all. Overcast all night.

[pasnownut]

We got down to 13 at 8 am. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Low here in the historic district was 7, but it was 15 at sunrise. Temp bottomed out at 3:50am. Like @CarlislePaWx this was my coldest reading since 2018-19.

[Festus]

Low of 9.7F here in East Petersburg.  Coldest reading so far in calendar 2020!

[Festus]

Do you guys use your personal weather stations or use the closest WU station when reporting conditions?

[KPITSnow]

https://imgur.com/a/y9zefqk
 

i think my point and click is wrong. 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Festus said:

Do you guys use your personal weather stations or use the closest WU station when reporting conditions?

I have my own station. (Davis Vantage Vue) 

[pasnownut]

12zs do not inspire much confidence in my hopes for a white Christmas. 
 

dirty brown soaking wet coal for me (and many). Yuck 

let’s hope that was a flop and tomorrow we flip.  Not likely but one sure can hope. 
 

just got in from a 1.5 hr snowmobile ride with my almost 22 yr old son that “wanted to go for a ride with his dad”. I’ll take that and be happy with whatever the weather gives us. 
Have a good one hang. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Don’t worry, it the Christmas frontal snow doesn’t work out, we might not care that much, because we are busy tracking this potential coastal storm that could be en route a few days later according to the 12z GFS.

This pattern is loaded with opportunities over the next few weeks!

 

[medmax]

Don’t worry, it the Christmas frontal snow doesn’t work out, we might not care that much, because we are busy tracking this potential coastal storm that could be en route a few days later according to the 12z GFS.
This pattern is loaded with opportunities over the next few weeks!
 

I’ll take 10” before the NY pls. I’ll take an active pattern over the crappy zonal stuff of last year.

[kerplunk]

44 minutes ago, Festus said:

Do you guys use your personal weather stations or use the closest WU station when reporting conditions?

For temperature, I use a Netatmo that pretty much agrees with the personal stations close by and the airport - which is only a couple of miles away. Have also compared it side-by-side with 3 different AcuRite thermometers. They’re all within a degree. So I have confidence in it for temperature.

Humidity is a different story. The Netatmo humidity sensor is somewhat slow to react so I never think of it as real time. 

Also have the Netatmo rain gauge which I’ve calibrated and seems to be accurate enough when comparing it with surrounding stations.

Never bothered with the wind unit since the technology is questionable and I don’t have a good way to properly install it anyway since I live in a town house. 

The cool thing is it’s compatible with Apple HomeKit so I can just ask Siri for the temperature (in any room or outside) using any of my HomePods. And there’s a killer 3rd-party app for it named Myatmo for detailed info and graphs.

If I didn’t live in a town house, I’d definitely consider a WeatherFlow Tempest. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

12zs do not inspire much confidence in my hopes for a white Christmas. 
 

dirty brown soaking wet coal for me (and many). Yuck 

let’s hope that was a flop and tomorrow we flip.  Not likely but one sure can hope. 
 

just got in from a 1.5 hr snowmobile ride with my almost 22 yr old son that “wanted to go for a ride with his dad”. I’ll take that and be happy with whatever the weather gives us. 
Have a good one hang. 

That's awesome. Great memories being made, and to make 'em in the snow is a bonus. Good stuff right there...

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

12zs do not inspire much confidence in my hopes for a white Christmas. 
 

dirty brown soaking wet coal for me (and many). Yuck 

let’s hope that was a flop and tomorrow we flip.  Not likely but one sure can hope. 
 

just got in from a 1.5 hr snowmobile ride with my almost 22 yr old son that “wanted to go for a ride with his dad”. I’ll take that and be happy with whatever the weather gives us. 
Have a good one hang. 

Yea, this was why I didn't like seeing the more amplified solutions for this particular system. I'm a build the snowpack kinda guy when it's DJF, I hate starting over lol. Euro op dumps a lot of rain on spots with the big time snowpack, and in general really. Progresses much slower with the front, dragging this affair into the first half of Christmas Day before the cold air gets back in. GFS on the other side of the envelope getting cold rapidly back into pretty much the whole region on Christmas Eve before midnight. Doesn't have as much rain as the Euro and has been the one leading the most with that anafrontal type deal. Still punches LSV into pretty warm temps for several hours. All in all it looks like a 12-18hr period encompassing most of Xmas Eve where temps get up into the 40s-50s in most of the region. I just want to get the front through as fast as possible.

[pasnownut]

16 hours ago, FHS said:

Very nice Mr. Nut. My son is 15 and when for the first time in a few years he came out to hang out with me in the storm it made the last storm the most special in years and kept me from blowing up the forum. I am a single dad and my dating years are over so when my son stated the teen thing it made form some lonely years and hard changes I still can quit swallow. Always super hart warming to here of winter memory's made with the ones we love.

Thanks Flathead. Never too old to love time with our kids. Enjoy yours. 
And fwiw Im not looking to get into anyone’s good graces either. Just sharing a good time like many do here.  

[anotherman]

 

[Wmsptwx]

6 hours ago, FHS said:

Just be clear I am not trying to get in any good graces. You guys define the mob the real world is sick of and the fake world rewards.

Have you been out fishing at all this year?

[MAG5035]

Snowy start to the day here, working on an inch and a pretty good burst of heavier snow currently. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Snowy start to the day here, working on an inch and a pretty good burst of heavier snow currently. 

Congrats! 
Do you think that the Clipper on Monday night will produce much of anything outside of the mountains for the Susquehanna Valley?

[Blizzard of 93]

The Christmas wave on the front idea improved the snow chances slightly on the GFS & Euro.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GEFS is on board for Christmas post front snow as well for all of CTP!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Snowy start to the day here, working on an inch and a pretty good burst of heavier snow currently. 

Also, today, do you think any of your snow might survive the trip over the mountains to the Susquehanna Valley?

[Blizzard of 93]

8 hours ago, anotherman said:

 

Hopefully it’s not long before we see DT say, 

ALEET , ALEET !!!

[MAG5035]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Congrats! 
Do you think that the Clipper on Monday night will produce much of anything outside of the mountains for the Susquehanna Valley?

 

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Also, today, do you think any of your snow might survive the trip over the mountains to the Susquehanna Valley?

Might get a period of light snow this morning over there but probably little to no accumulation off the mountains as best precip hasn't been progged to get much further over than western PA (although this is def overachieving here). It appears the clipper might have a better chance of delivering lighter accums (up to an inch or so maybe) out to at least some of the Sus Valley, despite clipper low track going a bit to the north. 

[pasnownut]

58 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Snowy start to the day here, working on an inch and a pretty good burst of heavier snow currently. 

Looks like it wants to snow here. Just a pretty early winter day. Enjoy everyone!

[pasnownut]

Looking at 500’s I’ve seen worse loops in my life. If one is to believe towards the end  we start to see a monster 50/50 retrograde and force everything under. In between it still looks progressive but chances for fun to be had. Just going to need good timing to get it done.