Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Meanwhile, hot off of the press from CTP for tomorrow morning for the LSV. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 137 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-141000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0017.201214T1100Z-201214T2100Z/ Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 137 PM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches throughout the Susquehanna Valley, with around 3 inches likely on the ridges. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 4 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * Additional Details...Snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour are possible at times near and to the south of the Pennsylvania Turnpike during the late morning and early afternoon hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yea we do need to start addressing this thing tomorrow lol. I think there's more uncertainty with that than Wednesday's event, which could be problematic because the timing of this is right at morning rush tomorrow. That combined with being the season's first chance at widespread snow is likely why they're pulling trigger on advisories for a general 1-2" in the LSV counties. There could be a ribbon of snow that doubles up on that if some of these amped meso models have their way. CTP discussion references good lift in the DGZ, which will ramp ratios. Limiting factor at least in the initial stages of the precip arriving probably will be B-layer temps probably being a bit warm. Precip may start as rain in the LSV. If the rates are there, look out once stuff starts accumulating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 18z NAMs are upping the ante for southern PA and northern MD. @psuhoffman , Please let us know your thoughts on the appetizer event for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z NAMs are upping the ante for southern PA and northern MD. @psuhoffman , Please let us know your thoughts on the appetizer event for tomorrow. Incredible...both 18Z Nam's have my snowfall at 5" again...second time in a row. All the globals had given up on tomorrow with none of them having more than 1" in the LSV. Shouldn't we expect the NAM to be the better model 24 hours out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 If the NAM is correct, it usually needs to be 1 day out or less. It’s supported by the HRRR too. If we get decent rates, then a few inches are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z NAMs are upping the ante for southern PA and northern MD. @psuhoffman , Please let us know your thoughts on the appetizer event for tomorrow. A ribbon of warning criteria in there. What a setup that would be for Wednesday. Foundation is laid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Geez, the 12k NAM spits out 4" of snow in southern Lanco and 24" across the northern part of the county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s too early for the NAM but geez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s too early for the NAM but geez. I need to find your January 2016 post where you said this verbatimSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: RGEM: Low tucked in would have much more expansive precip to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS HH. Cheers (even the most progressive model): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yea...almost heart stopping. LolThing of beauty there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, paweather said: Crushed! We are starting to get a consensus. Only 3 days out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 No idea what to expect here out of tomorrow but I’d consider a quick 1-2” a win. Snowboard has been deployed in the yard. I handmade this thing out of some misc scrap wood around my shop room last winter and never got to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: No idea what to expect here out of tomorrow but I’d consider a quick 1-2” a win. Snowboard has been deployed in the yard. I handmade this thing out of some misc scrap wood around my shop room last winter and never got to use it. Cool little board. What happens when the snow gets above the orange maker 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Cool little board. What happens when the snow gets above the orange maker Hopefully I'll get to worry about that Thursday lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MAG5035 said: Hopefully I'll get to worry about that Thursday lol. Trying to bring good vibes. There’s always a second band max west of the main jackpot ccb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 18z Euro is on board now for tomorrow’s event..., And an epic mauling in ongoing this run for Wednesday night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z Euro for Wed is . Double digit snowfall for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Euro for Wed is . Double digit snowfall for everyone. Epic crushing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Starting to feel pretty confident a) MDT gets 12”c out of this and b) Voyager is gonna beat us all on totals, I think the coal region is gonna get deformed to death. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Starting to feel pretty confident a) MDT gets 12”c out of this and b) Voyager is gonna beat us all on totals, I think the coal region is gonna get deformed to death. As soon as they show up with consistency, you know NEPA is well placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: As soon as they show up with consistency, you know NEPA is well placed. I think we are all in great shape from I-99 on east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 59 minutes ago, canderson said: Starting to feel pretty confident a) MDT gets 12”c out of this and b) Voyager is gonna beat us all on totals, I think the coal region is gonna get deformed to death. Well, I hope you're right. It would be the first true deform band I've seen since I've lived up this way. The last one I saw was the epic January 96 one when I lived in Bethlehem. What's nice is that, at least so far, everyone seems to be getting in well with this one! The biggest plus of all is that I'm still in the process of filling out and submitting applications and likely will be able to watch this one from the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 18z Euro is finally on board again for the appetizer event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Here is the height of the storm on the 18z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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