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bluewave

December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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39 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

69 and 76 it snowed Christmas night.Can we get a star for that? lol

yeah Dec 26th has the most crippling storms than any other day...1969 changed to rain after 6" fell or it would have been a classic...

Dec 26th 1872...18"...

Dec 25-26 1909.....8"...

Dec 26th 1933.....11"

Dec 26-27 1947...26"

Dec 26-27 2010...20"

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

yeah Dec 26th has the most crippling storms than any other day...1969 changed to rain after 6" fell or it would have been a classic...

Dec 26th 1872...18"...

Dec 25-26 1909.....8"...

Dec 26th 1933.....11"

Dec 26-27 1947...26"

Dec 26-27 2020...20"

you are predicting 20 inches Dec 26-27 ?:snowwindow::snowman: :mapsnow:can you move it up 2 days ???

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16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this is correct, then mid-late December turns mild. I believe December, 1988 (also a strong La Niña) had a +PNA run from 12/1 - 12/15 before it flipped. The late November strengthening period for this Niña has begun in earnest, the easterlies are really ripping right now and are projected to continue to do so well into December. Regions 3.4 and 4 are about to see another big SST drop from the upwelling. This is going to really limit how far MJO waves can propagate before they get sheared apart by the very strong easterlies and run into the colder waters....which is why MJO phases 3-6 are favored this winter

it also sounds a lot like 2005-06

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had 5 years since 2000 produce a 4”+ snow in NYC during the first 2 weeks of December. The first important feature was enough east based -NAO blocking from Greenland to Iceland. A 50/50 low was important for locking in cold air and high pressure across the region. Finally, a far enough west +PNA block was needed over Western Canada. The current ensemble forecasts are not quite there yet. They are lacking the strong east based -NAO blocking in the Atlantic. Not much hint of a persistent 50/50 vortex and high pressure over the Northeast showing up yet. The +PNA block is still a little to far to the east across Canada.


5 storm composite

71D0B438-A570-4E0E-9C60-004B4A812EDB.gif.981648fe9aba5ca3798bc9719974f0d6.gif

EPS day 10 forecast

2D80BD97-AB63-4A9F-866B-D539D32C45C1.thumb.png.4e9284b6965ba70adcf6782e294fe2f9.png

agreed on all .. at least the southern stream is cold and active.  No one in the media talking about a high impact event in OHIO-MI early next week. Sort of surprised... maybe I'm reading this wrong?  

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6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Next weekends storm has some potential if this is even "real" at 228 hours

850th.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

agreed and closer than yesterdays 12z cycle.  still concerned about dominance of Mondays storm... recovery.  However,  interesting that the GFS and CMC continue on it...CMC GGEM in fact sooooo far west, keeping us warm again.  Interesting times with transitioning teleconnections. See blue wave below. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Feb 2006 please

Save that one storm, I think it was a bad winter.  We got our annual climo snow fall in that ONE storm.  It was amazing.

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the rapid warming of the Indio-Pacific warm pool favors a slower and more amplified MJO passage through 5-7. We have seen this quite frequently during recent winters. Even during stronger La Ninas, we can get a January MJO 8 sandwiched between the warmer 4-7 phases in both December and February. So it will be interesting to see how the MJO progresses this winter.

 

Question about MJO.I know some of us on the board claim it's the determining factor in determining weather in the east.Then why was it in phase8,9 and 1 in November and we got record breaking heat?Also some of our biggest snowstorms here have been unfavorable phases.Is just one factor or just part of the equation?

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3 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Question about MJO.I know some of us on the board claim it's the determining factor in determining weather in the east.Then why was it in phase8,9 and 1 in November and we got record breaking heat?Also some of our biggest snowstorms here have been unfavorable phases.Is just one factor or just part of the equation?

No phase 9

 

8 and 1 =)

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No phase 9

 

8 and 1 =)

Anthony, Keith may be right. This is 2020. If there ever was a year for a phase 9, this is it. As always ....

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26 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Question about MJO.I know some of us on the board claim it's the determining factor in determining weather in the east.Then why was it in phase8,9 and 1 in November and we got record breaking heat?Also some of our biggest snowstorms here have been unfavorable phases.Is just one factor or just part of the equation?

This month the very strong IO MJO combined with a near record polar vortex for November record warmth. So it really enhanced the upper ridge over the area. The closest  MJO composite match for November was a phase 3. You can see the dominant VP anomalies focused near that part of the IO. 

06F2EC98-4013-4D00-AF1A-D10269486EDA.png.7141c077737a5457d5e2be4919294738.png
60D0051F-E472-412B-84F0-3DBE0FEAC706.gif.2a599a0c93637939022a9f05865e8126.gif

D6DBE6D8-A439-416E-AA2B-53C0250B506F.gif.41e600f74e54d173b59f35d08ed95536.gif

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46 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Save that one storm, I think it was a bad winter.  We got our annual climo snow fall in that ONE storm.  It was amazing.

that winter had two good weeks in the first half of December and one huge storm in Feb...otherwise it was really bad...

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Just now, uncle W said:

that winter had two good weeks in the first half of December and one huge storm in Feb...otherwise it was really bad...

Early storm in December made my sons birthday a mess.  It think it was the 5th and we got 7 inches here . Have the kids didn’t go.  But the ones who did had the place to themselves.  

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I think our best shot of snow will be as the pna ridge starts to retrograde west into Ak. This will allow colder air to enter the eastern US. With a active southern jet and colder air in Canada we will have our chances.

 

I welcome this pattern change as it’s diff then anything we have seen in the last two years. 

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I do wish I had half the optimism for this winter, snow wise, as the majority of the people posting in this thread. I just don't see anything to give me hope of a white Christmas, let alone an average to above average snow year. We will see, but it would be nice to have a good ski season for a change. 

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20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this is correct, then mid-late December turns mild. I believe December, 1988 (also a strong La Niña) had a +PNA run from 12/1 - 12/15 before it flipped. The late November strengthening period for this Niña has begun in earnest, the easterlies are really ripping right now and are projected to continue to do so well into December. Regions 3.4 and 4 are about to see another big SST drop from the upwelling. This is going to really limit how far MJO waves can propagate before they get sheared apart by the very strong easterlies and run into the colder waters....which is why MJO phases 3-6 are favored this winter

If I remember right in December 88 the positive NAO killed us.  There was probably 3-4 decent storms that came out of the Gulf but weren’t able to make the turn up the coast 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I think our best shot of snow will be as the pna ridge starts to retrograde west into Ak. This will allow colder air to enter the eastern US. With a active southern jet and colder air in Canada we will have our chances.

 

I welcome this pattern change as it’s diff then anything we have seen in the last two years. 

This is what I mean with the ridge moving west and establishing a cross Polar flow/-epo. All the ensembles don’t roll the ridge over which would pump the southeast ridge. 

7818665C-C161-4D5F-9D4B-553C1AE2D367.png

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is what I mean with the ridge moving west and establishing a cross Polar flow/-epo. All the ensembles don’t roll the ridge over which would pump the southeast ridge. 

7818665C-C161-4D5F-9D4B-553C1AE2D367.png

Beautiful look 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

20201126_123523.jpg

20201126_123513.jpg

20201126_123448.jpg

Anthony. If I read more and post less I may even get to understand these someday. Happy T day and be safe if your working the long shift. As always ....

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

This is what I mean with the ridge moving west and establishing a cross Polar flow/-epo. All the ensembles don’t roll the ridge over which would pump the southeast ridge. 

7818665C-C161-4D5F-9D4B-553C1AE2D367.png

And it gets better the further out it goes let's just hope it verifies

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies are on the MJO progression east across the Maritime Continent train. First week of December temperatures averaging slightly above normal in the Northeast. Second week closer to normal. As others have mentioned, maybe we can put some snow points on the board during the second week. This is followed by our annual warm up approaching the solstice and through the holiday period.

 

119B11A4-14A1-47F4-9FA2-D7EB5537CD02.thumb.png.99786a7e4c5fabc384f980d557742fb4.png

 

565282FA-569C-4678-B8B7-A8D0A26340FB.thumb.png.589311c3cb414552d255825004748132.png

 

9352B7AA-EA82-46C2-B1DF-4687EFEEF1AE.thumb.png.da9020bd583d70dd439db2354a7ab916.png

 

04483DE1-1B8A-4432-BD2A-65685CA79467.thumb.png.d009286e60ba6892c03ba922a9a88fce.png

Yep. Niña look comes back week 4. Week 3 looks great with pna and -nao. 

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