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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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10 minutes ago, Ji said:
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
The TPV pulls west and the next trough dives in too far west so even with a -AO/NAO that’s not so good unless it’s 2010 level blocking. But the guidance was doing that for this week not long ago and you were whining that the storms were tracking now were cutters. So...

Lol so much for the meterogically impossible to get cutters during a strong AO NAO block

  no  that not what it means

  what it means is that 

a)    even if the model shows an inland track   with  - AO/ - NAO    you should NOT  accept that solution  as  valid

b)   and it means after 15  years   you  have  learned  not a damn thing

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58 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I don't get the excitement for the Monday thing..maybe it's just me.  The mid week thing is what I'm looking for.  GFS has the High a little slower...which I think is a good thing.  Looks more pronounced with CAD so far

  the monday    event is a cold  rain

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47 minutes ago, Amped said:

Southern stream is weak.  No low coming out of the gulf coast states.

 

 

  its the GFS   

 that model  simply does not see  stj  ast  72  84  hrs   ... never has been   
never will be

 see the   DEC 7   event here in  central VA... GFS  has NOTHING  every run   for  6 days   until  42 hrs  before the event 

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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:
  at   40-45   degrees?   Good luck with that

 
5fd2ffa76216f.png.109bf4f6577a21fe126fa1ca94c23408.png

Cause gfs is dry. Icon is 32-34

  yes at 90 hrs  ...18z  MON  ..

BUT  dude    when the  event begin at   12z   Monday
  DCA  is  38   CHO is 40   Winchester is 35f

 A  lot of  rain until 18z ....    

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How come all the other guidance they continue to release faster but the euro stays 1am. The gap is crazy now. At least years ago we had the ggem/gefs and various other “guidance of the hour” crap coming out between the Gfs and euro. Now everything else is done by 11:45 and it’s a crazy wait. 
 

ETA: I am not waiting up. If I happen to wake up fine otherwise it will look the same at 7am as it does at 1am 

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How come all the other guidance they continue to release faster but the euro stays 1am. The gap is crazy now. At least years ago we had the ggem/gefs and various other “guidance of the hour” crap coming out between the Gfs and euro. Now everything else is done by 11:45 and it’s a crazy wait. 

 

ETA: I am not waiting up. If I happen to wake up fine otherwise it will look the same at 7am as it does at 1am 

but by 7:00am the 06z is coming out.. the 00z is useless!

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18 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, IMO, GEPS were a nice hit

The 5H depiction on the GDPS is more indicative of a snow event compared to the GFS as the wave is stronger with a neg-neutral tilt as it traverses the Tennessee Valley. GFS is a bit more flat and pos-neutral tilt in the same time frame. Still a ways out, but the setup is there for a modest event for the Mid Atlantic. I'll be keeping tabs through the next several days while I'm on mid shifts. I like seeing the high over Quebec and weak blocking in the northern latitudes. Keep those in play, and it'll be about timing of the disturbance. A little more amplitude in the trough will pay dividends. 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The 5H depiction on the GEPS is more indicative of a snow event compared to the GFS as the wave is stronger with a neg-neutral tilt as it traverses the Tennessee Valley. GFS is a bit more flat and pos-neutral tilt in the same time frame. Still a ways out, but the setup is there for a modest event for the Mid Atlantic. I'll be keeping tabs through the next several days while I'm on mid shifts. I like seeing the high over Quebec and weak blocking in the northern latitudes. Keep those in play, and it'll be about timing of the disturbance. A little more amplitude in the trough will pay dividends. 

Gefs looked much better than the op 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gefs looked much better than the op 

Agreed. I meant to say GDPS (GEM) for my previous post, so I'll have to make that correction. The GEFS def showed more promise than the OP, so that's actually pretty nice to see. This is the time frame where ensembles I think can earn their stripes more than OP. Leaves window open on what could happen with a smoother mean. The trend is in the right direction right now. Only 20 more runs to go! lol 

If I was a betting man, I would bet on a storm for someone in here. Most likely the NW of 95 crew, but I wouldn't discount the eastern crew either. 

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