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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CMC just had an interior blizzard at 00z. All over the place.

I'll take it over the wonky GFS 3 piece vortex split that's trending west every run.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I'll take last winters gradient pattern, that was ideal.

When barely any precipitation falls the entire winter on a good chunk of NE, gradients mean jack 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant guidance in general. I haven't been following this closely because its unlikely to result in snow for Methuen, MA.

Guidance is all over. GEFS looks like the have two camps. Timing differences with the s/w's.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think that’s fair to insinuate deliberate trolling and/ or ignorance because some folks are concerned about a very brief winter interlude , before return to awful. Especially when they’ve given sound met reasoning. If they’re trolling to troll , that’s one thing. But I’ve posted why I have concerns about a deep winter month after the 8th. And like we’ve said, we hope we are wrong .

Agree. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

13-14 and 93-94 are two of the most overrated winters for me, personally. Largest event between them was like 8-9".

13-14...agree although I got 12+ a few days after New Years.  93-94 was da bomb!  Multiple 12+ events imby.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

13-14...agree.  93-94 was da bomb!  Multiple 12+ events imby.

It's a shame we missed the late March bomb in 2014. That would have been pretty dam epic. Locally it was a good winter here. 

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the differences in the GFS' handling of the N/stream ... in terms of timing, placement and amplitude, comparing the 00z 06z and 12z operational cycles are elaborately coherent.  It's not a situation where these cycles are showing nuanced changes that make determinism difficult - they literally don't look like the same play book entirely up over the NW Territories of NW Canadian shield.  That part of this PNA amplification is proving quite a problem with rather large stochastic/continuity changes  - 

to make matters even more obfuscating ... the differences show no clear trend progression - like, 00z big, 06z a little less... the 12z lesser still.. 00z big, 06z nill, 12 half way back. 

And the GGEM...  ?  I mean wtf -  ... It has a defined system on both the 00z and 12z runs, but they are coming from entirely different large scale mechanism... 00z was a weak southern stream phase initiation and a complete N/stream subsume thing... but this run is pure southern stream vortex lazily wobbling up toward Albany ...  

I don't know... we may not parlay well through any of this?  We might not  - .. but, I'm still intrigued and willing to stick it out when the AO/NAO tandem is falling, and the PNA is rising to + 2 SD...  Pattern change and indices mode flips typically are problems for guidance -

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the differences in the GFS' handling of the N/stream ... in terms of timing, placement and amplitude, comparing the 00z 06z and 12z operational cycles are elaborately coherent.  It's not a situation where these cycles are showing nuanced changes that make determinism difficult - they literally don't look like the same play book entirely up over the NW Territories of NW Canadian shield.  That part of this PNA amplification is proving quite a problem with rather large stochastic/continuity changes  - 

to make matters even more obfuscating ... the differences show no clear trend progression - like, 00z big, 06z a little less... the 12z lesser still.. 00z big, 06z nill, 12 half way back. 

And the GGEM...  ?  I mean wtf -  ... It has a defined system on both the 00z and 12z runs, but they are coming from entirely different large scale mechanism... 00z was a weak southern stream phase initiation and a complete N/stream subsume thing... but this run is pure southern stream vortex lazily wobbling up toward Albany ...  

I don't know... we may not parlay well through any of this?  We might not  - .. but, I'm still intrigued and willing to stick it out when the AO/NAO tandem is falling, and the PNA is rising to + 2 SD...  Pattern change and indices mode flips typically are problems for guidance -

That upcoming event is certainly much more uncertain than this current POS thing over the region. The models had this one locked-in for seemingly weeks.

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wasn't really a CJ, just a 1-3" event that turned into a foot of fluff. 

But a few days post New Years was the big extremely cold event I think.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a very reasonable post. I would just say that there are no signs of a return of the pig this month, so maybe tone done the use of the word "awful"...at least through New Years..

Kevin's problem is he thinks mets talking about a more favorable pattern = "deep winter pattern".....he made that up himself. Sure, if you are looking for Stowe, VT weather with currier and ives eveyr other day plus 2 or 3 big storms with no pack loss in December, I would "agree" that we should be concerned that we will not get that. This isn't an epic setup, but it's far from the December 1999/2006/2011/2015 disaster type pig patterns.

Best way to get deep winter with epic cold and no pack loss is to move to Caribou, ME. Down in southern New England, a decent December pattern still means you will risk some mild interludes or a cutter, but you have plenty of chances for snow events mixed in. You hope you roll 7s and not snake eyes.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin's problem is he thinks mets talking about a more favorable pattern = "deep winter pattern".....he made that up himself. Sure, if you are looking for Stowe, VT weather with currier and ives eveyr other day plus 2 or 3 big storms with no pack loss in December, I would "agree" that we should be concerned that we will not get that. This isn't an epic setup, but it's far from the December 1999/2006/2011/2015 disaster type pig patterns.

Best way to get deep winter with epic cold and no pack loss is to move to Caribou, ME. Down in southern New England, a decent December pattern still means you will risk some mild interludes or a cutter, but you have plenty of chances for snow events mixed in. You hope you roll 7s and not snake eyes.

But but but 1000" elevation. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sweet GEFS look.

Watch that dprog/dT on the heights in AK and adjacent Yukon.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin's problem is he thinks mets talking about a more favorable pattern = "deep winter pattern".....he made that up himself. Sure, if you are looking for Stowe, VT weather with currier and ives eveyr other day plus 2 or 3 big storms with no pack loss in December, I would "agree" that we should be concerned that we will not get that. This isn't an epic setup, but it's far from the December 1999/2006/2011/2015 disaster type pig patterns.

Best way to get deep winter with epic cold and no pack loss is to move to Caribou, ME. Down in southern New England, a decent December pattern still means you will risk some mild interludes or a cutter, but you have plenty of chances for snow events mixed in. You hope you roll 7s and not snake eyes.

He makes up his own narrative...and then applies it to the current situation.  

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That upcoming event is certainly much more uncertain than this current POS thing over the region. The models had this one locked-in for seemingly weeks.

Sure, in the sense that it would be a mild system for NE.....but there were also some changes with that. It trended from an epic early season blizzard in the ORV to a middling event, as many of us suspected that it would.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, in the sense that it would be a mild system for NE.....but there were also some changes with that. It trended from an epic early season blizzard in the ORV to a middling event, as many of us suspected that it would.

That's true, I was only watching the model progs for MBY but the epic blizzard for the Ohio Valley did fizzle.

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