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Windspeed

Tropical Storm Eta

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I thought IRMA was very picturesque

Irma was definitely the most picturesque in recent years.  The size, symmetry, and lack of all the other crud that Eta has around it, made it look perfect.

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If the VDM verifies the 922 mb, that's a 5 mb drop in 1 hour. This is still rapidly deepening. Bit of a chase to see how long the eyewall can continue this pace until the outer band takes over. This probably does reach Cat 5 tonight.

 

 

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This most recent pass confirms rapid intensification is still occurring. If current recon doesn't confirm a category 5 by the time it departs, the next one, which is currently en route, should.

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I've seen a few people mention that Gilbert and Wilma were at peak intensity even with an extra outer eyewall(?) By that, do y'all mean like at a similar stage as to where Eta currently is (or earlier, or later in the EWRC)? Not that I anticipate a pressure that low, just relative to the life cycle of this storm.

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

If the VDM verifies the 922 mb, that's a 5 mb drop in 1 hour. This is still rapidly deepening. Bit of a chase to see how long the eyewall can continue this pace until the outer band takes over. This probably does reach Cat 5 tonight.

 

 

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

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4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

Yes, it is out of the question.  ERCs occur when a ring of very strong thunderstorms encircles a pinwheel eye. This new ring contracts and as it does so it robs--literally takes--the angular momentum from the inner eye and expands it out. Angular momentum is conserved, but a larger radius of winds lowers the wind speed and raises the pressure. After the cycle completes, the new eyewall can contract and potentially re-strengthen. It takes several hours to occur, and is first visible on radar (ground or plane--the plane has radar which is how they characterize a "closed" versus "open" eye), so if there's one in progress you'll see it there before you see it on satellite. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

Not enough time for an eyewall merger.  The inner eyewall is probably still deepening though.   

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Some left the party too fast. lol... Eta is still reaching for peak.

Still here :twister:

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2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The new recon is aborting just shy of the storm

I haven't seen an update from the old recon in 45minutes other than the sonde.

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Just now, Floydbuster said:

Why have three recons turned around in 24 hrs? What in the world??

 

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Seriously....why?! 

Evil exists.

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Mitch killed 10,000 people in 1998 with 180 mph sustained winds at its peak if my memory is right. Similar path and time of year to this. Pretty sure the models didn't get the path right on Mitch - have to watch for that in the coming days. 

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1 minute ago, raindancewx said:

Mitch killed 10,000 people in 1998 with 180 mph sustained winds at its peak if my memory is right. Similar path and time of year to this. Pretty sure the models didn't get the path right on Mitch - have to watch for that in the coming days. 

Mitch was down to a 1 by landfall, though. It was all rainfall-induced landslides.

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