November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[LibertyBell]

No 30" snowfall seasons from 1978-79 to 1992-93 (15 straight years!) must also be unprecedented.

 

[LibertyBell]

On the opposite end of the spectrum we cant ignore what the 2010s has given us which is 5 straight 30"+ snowfall seasons between 13-14 and 17-18 (includes two straight of 50"+ in 13-14 and 14-15) which was almost 6 straight 30"+ seasons (if you include 12-13, which fell 4" short at NYC but was much more across LI thanks to Feb 2013.).  I went even further back and found that we had 9 out of 10 snowfall seasons with 26" or more between 08-09 and 17-18 (with 7 of those seasons above 30" and two back to backs of 50"+  09-10 to 10-11 and 13-14 to 14-15)....only rudely interrupted by 2011-12 (which still had the historic October snowstorm.)  And going even further back we have the period from 00-01 to 17-18 with 14 out of 18 with 26 inches of snow or more, including 12 with 30" or more and the aforementioned 2 back to backs with 50"+ and 4 straight of 40"+ , which also includes 9 out of 16 with 40"+ between 02-03 and 17-18 and 8 out of 13 of 40"+ between 02-03 and 14-15!)

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

On the opposite end of the spectrum we cant ignore what the 2010s has given us which is 5 straight 30"+ snowfall seasons between 13-14 and 17-18 (includes two straight of 50"+ in 13-14 and 14-15) which was almost 6 straight 30"+ seasons (if you include 12-13, which fell 4" short at NYC but was much more across LI thanks to Feb 2013.).  I went even further back and found that we had 9 out of 10 snowfall seasons with 26" or more between 08-09 and 17-18 (with 7 of those seasons above 30" and two back to backs of 50"+  09-10 to 10-11 and 13-14 to 14-15)....only rudely interrupted by 2011-12 (which still had the historic October snowstorm.)  And going even further back we have the period from 00-01 to 17-18 with 14 out of 18 with 26 inches of snow or more, including 12 with 30" or more and the aforementioned 2 back to backs with 50"+ and 4 straight of 40"+.)

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

 

It may be tough for Long Island to challenge the 9 year run averaging close to 50”.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	0.5	6.5	18.2	13.9	8.6	0.6	48.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	4.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9

 

[LibertyBell]

Wow Islip had over 40 inches for every one of those 9 years except for the horrible 11-12 and 16-17 in which they barely missed it by less than an inch.  5 out 9 (almost 6) with over 50"+ and 3 out 9 with over 60"!

[donsutherland1]

A strong cold front will move across the region late tomorrow afternoon or evening. The frontal passage could be marked by a squall line with thunder, briefly heavy rain, and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Behind the front, Monday will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures.

While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +17.69.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.134.

On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.117 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.299.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

 

[LibertyBell]

So we have records on both sides of the country from 1999.....interesting.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.[41/53].      Making it 42degs., or -4.0.

Month to date is  56.3[+6.3].      Should be about 51.1[+2.6] by the 23rd.

Tropics:     13.1N  77.5W.

45*(60%RH) here at 6am-overcast.      46* at 6:30am.       50*(65%RH) by 8am.     51* at 8:30am.      52* at 9am.      53* at 9:30am.        54* at 10am.            55* at 10:30am.         Climbed slowly and steadily toward a 59* by 5pm.       60*(87%RH) at 6pm        61* at 7pm.      63* at 8pm.       51* at 9pm-----Squall line reached here at 8:45pm.

[bluewave]

The fast Pacific flow will result in a day 6-10 warm up  following the day 1-5 cool down. So the CONUS will finish with a much warmer November than the last few years. I posted the warmest rankings for the CONUS since 2010. Many areas just had a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of November. NYC finished the first 2 weeks at 4th warmest.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14	Missing Count
1	1975-11-14	58.9	0
2	1938-11-14	57.6	0
3	2015-11-14	57.1	0
4	2020-11-14	56.6	0
-	1974-11-14	56.6	0
-	1935-11-14	56.6	0

 

CONUS  warmest to coolest temperatures since 2011

201611	47.97°F	10	6.28°F
201711	45.03°F	9	3.34°F
201511	44.60°F	8	2.91°F
201211	44.01°F	7	2.32°F
201111	43.75°F	6	2.06°F
201011	42.31°F	5	0.62°F
201311	41.61°F	4	-0.08°F
201911	41.11°F	3	-0.58°F
201811	40.01°F	2	-1.68°F
201411	39.25°F	1	-2.44°F

 

 

 

[uofmiami]

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. During the late afternoon or evening, a cold front will cross the region with a possible squall line, brief period of heavy rain, and possible thunder and high winds. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 50s and lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The fast Pacific flow will result in a day 6-10 warm up  following the day 1-5 cool down. So the CONUS will finish with a much warmer November than the last few years. I posted the warmest rankings for the CONUS since 2010. Many areas just had a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of November. NYC finished the first 2 weeks at 4th warmest.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Nov 1 to Nov 14	Missing Count
1	1975-11-14	58.9	0
2	1938-11-14	57.6	0
3	2015-11-14	57.1	0
4	2020-11-14	56.6	0
-	1974-11-14	56.6	0
-	1935-11-14	56.6	0

 

CONUS  warmest to coolest temperatures since 2011

201611	47.97°F	10	6.28°F
201711	45.03°F	9	3.34°F
201511	44.60°F	8	2.91°F
201211	44.01°F	7	2.32°F
201111	43.75°F	6	2.06°F
201011	42.31°F	5	0.62°F
201311	41.61°F	4	-0.08°F
201911	41.11°F	3	-0.58°F
201811	40.01°F	2	-1.68°F
201411	39.25°F	1	-2.44°F

 

 

 

It's noteworthy that we didn't have a single November (monthly average I'm assuming, not just the first two weeks?) above 48 F since 2010.

 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's noteworthy that we didn't have a single November (monthly average I'm assuming, not just the first two weeks?) above 48 F since 2010.

 

NYC needs to hold a +2.3 departure to finish with the first 50° November since 2015 and 2011. This year deviated a bit from recent years with the March and November warmth.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2020	56.6	16
2019	43.9	0
2018	44.4	0
2017	46.6	0
2016	49.8	0
2015	52.8	0
2014	45.3	0
2013	45.3	0
2012	43.9	0
2011	51.9	0
2010	47.9	0

[Intensewind002]

Didn't even release it, but had a low of 33 last night, lowest of the season so far. Current temp is up to 58 though

 

[qg_omega]

26 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Didn't even release it, but had a low of 33 last night, lowest of the season so far. Current temp is up to 58 though

 

Sneaky 31 lest night

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Didn't even release it, but had a low of 33 last night, lowest of the season so far. Current temp is up to 58 though

 

27.9 here last night

[Cfa]

31 here last night. Forecasts had us at 36-37.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

31 here last night. Forecasts had us at 36-37.

Got down to 30 here in Holbrook. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to hold a +2.3 departure to finish with the first 50° November since 2015 and 2011. This year deviated a bit from recent years with the March and November warmth.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2020	56.6	16
2019	43.9	0
2018	44.4	0
2017	46.6	0
2016	49.8	0
2015	52.8	0
2014	45.3	0
2013	45.3	0
2012	43.9	0
2011	51.9	0
2010	47.9	0

Chris, how warm does it need to get for a monthly average to be the warmest November of the decade?  52.8?  Do you think we can do it?

 

 

[Rtd208]

Wind is picking up and becoming gusty here.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The final monthly departure will depend on how big a warm up verifies around Thanksgiving. We would need a very warm last week of the month to match the +5.1 in November 2015. 

 

I love it!  Early call on Thanksgiving weekend- sunny and 70s?

 

[donsutherland1]

This afternoon saw increasingly gusty winds along the Long Island Sound. The temperature was in the upper 50s.

[Rtd208]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for here until 11pm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for here until 11pm.

Beautiful low topped squall line out in Pa. They rarely verify for high winds but maybe this one produces. Pretty windy on the SS currently with gusts around 40mph consistently. We often see the strongest winds just before and after frontal passages in this these setups 

[Stormlover74]

Temp up to 63

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Beautiful low topped squall line out in Pa. They rarely verify for high winds but maybe this one produces. Pretty windy on the SS currently with gusts around 40mph consistently. We often see the strongest winds just before and after frontal passages in this these setups 

I decided to stay in NE PA because it was rather dark all afternoon and come back to LI tomorrow, there was about an hour of heavy rain and then a break and now it's really raining hard and extremely windy, my windows are rattling and I can feel the house shaking.  Pretty wild out here.

 

[LibertyBell]

Glad I stayed here tonight Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued for here

[CIK62]

Our new winter season hobby-----following Squall Lines.          Forget the snow squalls.          NW NJ stay safe right now.        

[donsutherland1]

At 7:40 pm, a squall line with briefly heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and damaging winds was pushing rapidly eastward from northwest New Jersey. Ahead of the front, winds were gusting past 40 mph and the temperature had risen into the 60s.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures.

While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +9.92.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.415.

On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.166 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°.

 

[Rtd208]

Very gusty winds and pouring here.

[CIK62]

Coney Island getting wiped out at 8:45pm---8:50pm.      T crashed during this period from 63 to 54.