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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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Call me silly but I dont have a good feeling regarding this first storm for NW Arkansas here at all by what Im seeing and reading idk. We are so border between 1-3" and 6-8". They are being conservative and smart regarding storm 2 and mentioning it could be even more significant depending on its track, who the heck knows lol. Still flurrying here off and on everytime a cloud rolls by. 

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3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Call me silly but I dont have a good feeling regarding this first storm for NW Arkansas here at all by what Im seeing and reading idk. We are so border between 1-3" and 6-8". They are being conservative and smart regarding storm 2 and mentioning it could be even more significant depending on its track, who the heck knows lol. Still flurrying here off and on everytime a cloud rolls by. 

I think we’re going to be good.  4+ inches looks pretty solid.  Especially if one of the bands shifts SE just a few miles.   The RAP has it just trying to get into Benton Co.  

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1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

I think we’re going to be good.  4+ inches looks pretty solid.  Especially if one of the bands shifts SE just a few miles.   The RAP has it just trying to get into Benton Co.  

I hope so man, fingers crossed!! And ya know it always seems the cutoff line for me here is 412 north lol! I cant count how many times its doing nothing here then poof get on the other side of 412 and its doing something...crazyness man haha

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Just now, NwWhiteOut said:

See thats what I was referring to right there LOL, Tulsa was saying to really watch storm 2. Maybe it will surprise a lot of us who knows!! Boy talk about weenie map in all its glory, I better not get too excited lol

Indeed. even half of this would be excellent over the next 2 storms.

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From Norman NWS...

The snow associated with the main storm system will move into the
area Sunday morning near or just before sunrise Sunday morning.
In general, the model QPF is a little lower than previous
forecasts, so have adjusted the snow amounts down just a touch. We
are still expecting amounts of 5 inches or more throughout the
forecast area, with the highest amounts of roughly 8 to 9 inches
across southwest Oklahoma and area of north Texas near Wichita 
Falls. The storm system looks a little quicker and have adjusted
the timing of the forecast and heaviest snowfall a little bit.

 

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7 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

From Norman NWS...


The snow associated with the main storm system will move into the
area Sunday morning near or just before sunrise Sunday morning.
In general, the model QPF is a little lower than previous
forecasts, so have adjusted the snow amounts down just a touch. We
are still expecting amounts of 5 inches or more throughout the
forecast area, with the highest amounts of roughly 8 to 9 inches
across southwest Oklahoma and area of north Texas near Wichita 
Falls. The storm system looks a little quicker and have adjusted
the timing of the forecast and heaviest snowfall a little bit.

 

Their comments about the heaviest amounts in SW OK don’t match the 18z GFS at all.   It’s actually the exact opposite.  Lowest amounts were in that area.  

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STL's AFD. They feel confident w/ call for 2-5'' along and south of I70 within their CWA

Quote

The other threat we`re focused on is the accumulating snow starting
across portions of central Missouri Sunday morning and continuing
through Monday evening. Here, an upper-level trough will eject out
of the southwestern U.S. and push eastward. A leading impulse within
this trough will spark precipitation late Sunday morning across
portions of central Missouri. Higher probability of snow will spread
eastward, primarily across portions of northeastern Missouri and
west-central Illinois through the day. Snowfall within this first
round will be around an inch or less mainly focused in central and
northeastern Missouri through west-central Illinois.

As the main surface system passes south and east of the CWA
overnight Sunday into Monday, the probability of accumulating snow
ramps up mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Upper-level
divergence from the trough and mid-level frontogenesis will couple
with cold air to produce efficient snow-to-liquid ratios. By the
time this system departs the CWA Monday afternoon and evening,
snowfall will range from 2-5 inches along and south of the I-70
corridor. I continue to have confidence in these totals, as blended
and ensemble guidance continue to focus the greatest snow potential and
amounts along this corridor.


Elmore

 

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Have a question about Mountain Home,  Arkansas calling expected snow accumulation of 3-5 inches a Winter Storm Warning vs  Dora, Missouri  calling snow accumulation of 4-6 inches a Winter Weather advisory ?  A higher accumulation expected in Dora , Mo  obviously but it isn't called a Winter Storm Warning. Hmmmmm? Does Arkansas and Missouri have  to meet different criteria ?  

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
303 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...Dangerous Cold Through Monday Night...

...Good Chance For Accumulating Snow Starting Sunday and
Continuing At Times Into Monday...
* WHAT...Wind chill values will frequently be below zero through
  Monday night. Some areas will see wind chills as low as 15 to 25
  degrees below zero. Snow with general amounts of 4 to 6 inches
  Sunday through Monday.

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
315 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
* AMOUNTS: Heavy snow is expected Sunday through much of
  Monday...with snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected.
  Locally higher amounts are possible...especially in the higher
  terrain.

 

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4 minutes ago, Doramo said:

Have a question about Mountain Home,  Arkansas calling expected snow accumulation of 3-5 inches a Winter Storm Warning vs  Dora, Missouri  calling snow accumulation of 4-6 inches a Winter Weather advisory ?  A higher accumulation expected in Dora , Mo  obviously but it isn't called a Winter Storm Warning. Hmmmmm? Does Arkansas and Missouri have  to meet different criteria ?  

Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
303 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...Dangerous Cold Through Monday Night...

...Good Chance For Accumulating Snow Starting Sunday and
Continuing At Times Into Monday...

* WHAT...Wind chill values will frequently be below zero through
  Monday night. Some areas will see wind chills as low as 15 to 25
  degrees below zero. Snow with general amounts of 4 to 6 inches
  Sunday through Monday.

 

Winter Storm Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
315 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

* AMOUNTS: Heavy snow is expected Sunday through much of
  Monday...with snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected.
  Locally higher amounts are possible...especially in the higher
  terrain.

 

Yes. Different criteria. SW Mo requires 6+, Arkansas requires 4. 

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