Weatherdemon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Tulsa is usually pretty conservative so that’s a “statement” discussion from them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Man, I want to believe, but I can’t help but think these forecasts are a bit premature. How many time in the last 5-10 years have we had a system like looks great 5-7 days out then totally falls apart as we close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, MUWX said: Man, I want to believe, but I can’t help but think these forecasts are a bit premature. How many time in the last 5-10 years have we had a system like looks great 5-7 days out then totally falls apart as we close in? Depends on if you're watching the GFS (often) or Euro inside 120 hours (not quite as often). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I think the difference is the temps and snow ratios... if the temps were borderline you would need just the perfect setup in order to get a "big" snow. That is 99% of the time around these parts. You don't need to worry about temps this go round. This type of cold air cranks out any and all moisture in the atmosphere. I have bought in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, JoMo said: Depends on if you're watching the GFS (often) or Euro inside 120 hours (not quite as often). I would keep a close eye....the GFS is surely bouncing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I think the difference is the temps and snow ratios... if the temps were borderline you would need just the perfect setup in order to get a "big" snow. You don't need to worry about temps this go round. This type of cold air cranks out any and all moisture in the atmosphere. I have bought in. Indeed. Not missing one key ingredient (cold air) sure does help. Must be what it's like for folks in ND/SD/MN all winter, pretty much every storm system is going to produce snowfall, it's just how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said: I think the difference is the temps and snow ratios... if the temps were borderline you would need just the perfect setup in order to get a "big" snow. That is 99% of the time around these parts. You don't need to worry about temps this go round. This type of cold air cranks out any and all moisture in the atmosphere. I have bought in. One of us...one of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, MUWX said: Man, I want to believe, but I can’t help but think these forecasts are a bit premature. How many time in the last 5-10 years have we had a system like looks great 5-7 days out then totally falls apart as we close in? I'm with you. Been burned 5 days out too many times in my 50 yrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: I'm with you. Been burned 5 days out too many times in my 50 yrs lol. I’m hoping for you guys....you deserve it. Keep an eye on the Nam, it’s a short ranger but been fairly accurate even in the range after 45 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ok, time for the 18z GFS. Wonder what curveball it's going to throw this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Good to see this forum pick up with discussion 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: Ok, time for the 18z GFS. Wonder what curveball it's going to throw this run. I’m nervous every time a new run starts... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, The Waterboy said: I’m nervous every time a new run starts... Haha. And then when the snow disappears on the run, it's like having your heart broken? This hobby sucks! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 David Payne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 49 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Good to see this forum pick up with discussion Indeed. Good group of fellow weather nerds here. Here’s hoping the next week is good for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like Siberia outside, big (record?) storm on the way, record-challenging sub-32 degree stretch in play, record cold Sunday-Tuesday possible... this is a stretch we’ll always remember, fellow weenies. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS looking like it's going to be another solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, westhope84 said: Looks like Siberia outside, big (record?) storm on the way, record-challenging sub-32 degree stretch in play, record cold Sunday-Tuesday possible... this is a stretch we’ll always remember, fellow weenies. Absolutely! Loving this!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18z GFS going to be insane again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 South central Ark. absolutely pounded at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This GFS run...it's still snowing on Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I'm with you. Been burned 5 days out too many times in my 50 yrs lol. I'm gonna stay hopeful but yea, been burnt over and over here in Fayetteville lol. And its just so far out still, yea the cold air will be in place thats for certain. Oh please mother nature dont let us down this is our big chance here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18Z keeps the hype train chugging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Dallas and well, anywhere in North Texas will be shut down! Holy Moly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is just keeps it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Personally hoping we get the typical northern shift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18z GFS v16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 For the rest of us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Although not nearly as reliable as the 2 main runs. I’ll post the 18Z Euro run in an hour ish. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: I’m hoping for you guys....you deserve it. Keep an eye on the Nam, it’s a short ranger but been fairly accurate even in the range after 45 hrs. Problem with the NAM myself and a few others have seen and noted is that its been initializing a bit too warm for this area around here for the past few days. Take that as you will. Might have to consult the RAP, HRRR, and short range Canadian (RDPS) for more reliability. I do also have concerns for dry air intrusion especially with how cold we will be getting by that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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