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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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GFS is just stupid cold in northern Missouri. Given how poorly the models handled the cold we are experiencing right now, it makes you wonder if models could actually be under doing the cold next weekend. If the potentially snow verifies and a large portion of the state is under a foot or more of snow, could somewhere in northern Mo challenge the all time record? 

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12 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

How have the Euro weeklies been this year u ask?  Well,  here you go.  Top pic is the current weeks forecast from a month ago.  Next pic is the newest forecast,  same time period. 

Etu2MfZWYAEDmMz.png

Etu2NuhXcAABsIH.png

Not good, Bob. I wonder why the major change? I wonder if there was a major wave buckle in the Pacific that led to the pattern change? 

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Model performance drops like a rock after Day 5 or so. So, the farther you go out, the worse they will end up being and the effects are almost exponential. With that being said, there were signs that somewhere was going to get a big Arctic dump since the polar vortex split in January. The AO has tanked, even though I think it's been negative the entire meteorological winter. 

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19 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Yeah that’s not good, that is probably how March will look 

Hope not. I was starting to believe that we were going to get to March with nice mild weather then it would turn warm. It's a Nina, after all, Ninas are warmer than normal and drier than normal. 

Is this forecast for low 20s for HIGH temperatures next Monday for real? I am really hoping that it isnt. I have livestock and birds and a lot of herbs that have made it nearly thru the entire winter down here south of Austin, TX.

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22 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

FWIW the 12z NAM is looking similar to the GFS in terms of the upper air pattern.

Will have to see what the new GFS is going to show.

1613174400-U8a6PnP32BE.png

1613174400-JzwF1mUOEmI.png

If anything, the NAM looks a little more bundled and deeper with the energy than the GFS does...at least that what my eyes tell me. I think the runs today and tomorrow will be interesting to see which side wins out here. 

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18 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Canadian might be looking more GFS-ish at hour 90. But will know soon.

 

Edit: Looks like a nudge towards the GFS, but still hasn't bought in on the solution.

500mb on the Canadian is definitely an improvement towards the GFS.  Very similar through 96 then it starts to differ.  I’d call it a step in the right direction especially when comparing the Canadian12z vs the 00z.  
 

00z with wave near San Diego

5B2EBC5A-B010-44A9-89F2-9A2EC6EBD86B.jpeg

12z in AZ.

7CFF9FD4-9601-4EF0-BD03-D9933E593CAA.jpeg

 


 

 

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