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George BM

October Banter 2020

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12 hours ago, yoda said:

I'm guessing that's supposed to be a blizzard sounding? :lol:

 

The sounding is valid just ahead of a strongly-forced very fast moving line of severe thunderstorms along an arctic cold front. We are under a Moderate risk of severe weather for WIND (45% hatched). There are also 10% TOR probs across the region... though I'm particularly watching that QLCS tornado threat as effective SRH looks be potentially be on the order of 700 m2/s2. While wind is the main threat don't sleep on the tornado threat at all. All the CAMs have several decent helicity swaths through the entire region, especially along and east of the mountains where CAPE looks to be the highest w/ low LCLs. It would actually not surprise me if we end up seeing more tornadoes w/ this event than with the February 7th event this year. We could also get a quick 6"+ of snow within 30-60 minutes with this event! 

Overall I'm feeling really excited about this event and am happy that we may finally get a decent area-wide severe event. I definitely look forward to the multiple case studies that will undoubtedly be done for this one.

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a fun school exercise today -- going over examples of different dynamics in music... lets see how loud and quiet we can be! :lol:

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Man that winter discussion is fraught with negativity. Could be right - but let’s hope. 
anyway- what is it called when a snowman has  a temper tantrum?  A  meltdown!!  Ok I know it’s bad. Just trying to bring a positive mojo to this winter. 

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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
856 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020
.EQUIPMENT...
The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D outage, which began on
September 20, 2020, will continue and remain out of service
until on or about October 16, 2020.

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center
(ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary
component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs
replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of
equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the
radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being
completed on or about October 16, 2020.

During the downtime, adjacent supporting NWS radars include:
Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ),
Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA
(KAKQ).

For a radar mosaic loop for the region:

https:/radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php

Further updates about the situation will be issued as
information becomes available. Thank you for your understanding
during this extended outage.

Point of Contact:

Christopher Strong
email: [email protected]noaa.gov
office: 703-996-2223

&&

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11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

FORTE Mappy! FORTE!! :D Was this the music unit?

not just forte, but FORTISSIMO and all the others

Yeah, she had music yesterday and it was one of her assignments after class. dynamics, tonality, tempo. was actually a fun exercise. and I have to laugh at her when she was asked what scenario she might do something in major or minor she said "sing someone happy birthday" (major) and "sing at a funeral" (minor) lol  

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4 hours ago, mappy said:

not just forte, but FORTISSIMO and all the others

Yeah, she had music yesterday and it was one of her assignments after class. dynamics, tonality, tempo. was actually a fun exercise. and I have to laugh at her when she was asked what scenario she might do something in major or minor she said "sing someone happy birthday" (major) and "sing at a funeral" (minor) lol  

CORRECT! Yep, she mastered the lesson :lol: Love that!

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How to get around the Washington Post paywall:

Just right click inspect element and find the div with the ID id="paywall-us-*", highlight it and simply press the delete key :)

 

 

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

CORRECT! Yep, she mastered the lesson :lol: Love that!

oh yeah, she was on it. It was fun. 

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Cam Newton tests positive for COVID. I predicted this wouldn't go well for the NFL and it now looks like it may be starting to unravel.

As I said before, I hope I'm wrong.

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On 10/1/2020 at 5:40 PM, Prestige Worldwide said:

Man that winter discussion is fraught with negativity. Could be right - but let’s hope. 
anyway- what is it called when a snowman has  a temper tantrum?  A  meltdown!!  Ok I know it’s bad. Just trying to bring a positive mojo to this winter. 

Everything objective looks awful. But I’ve pointed out sometimes an anomaly that we can’t readily explain happens. But that’s the most optimistic thing I can find. And it’s hard to have a lot of conversation around “maybe we just get lucky”. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything objective looks awful. But I’ve pointed out sometimes an anomaly that we can’t readily explain happens. But that’s the most optimistic thing I can find. And it’s hard to have a lot of conversation around “maybe we just get lucky”. 

"It can't be worse..."

We due!

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cam Newton tests positive for COVID. I predicted this wouldn't go well for the NFL and it now looks like it may be starting to unravel.

As I said before, I hope I'm wrong.

If the scientific model projections are correct we’re about to have way bigger problems than “can the nfl season finish”.  But yea trying to complete a full season traveling all over the country playing a contact sport during a time of year when viral transmission increases with no bubble was wildly optimistic at best. But what we don’t know is was a bubble even possible. You have to convince all these players to leave their families for 6 months when many of them are at the age they are getting married and starting families. I would never leave my children for 6 months. There isn’t a check you could write me that would even make me consider it.  The bubble sports were only trying a tournament and most players were looking at a month or two at most. And I’m sure that was tough. So if the only options were “let’s try this wing and a prayer or just not play at all” maybe it wasn’t such a bad decision. 

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the scientific model projections are correct we’re about to have way bigger problems than “can the nfl season finish”.  But yea trying to complete a full season traveling all over the country playing a contact sport during a time of year when viral transmission increases with no bubble was wildly optimistic at best. But what we don’t know is was a bubble even possible. You have to convince all these players to leave their families for 6 months when many of them are at the age they are getting married and starting families. I would never leave my children for 6 months. There isn’t a check you could write me that would even make me consider it.  The bubble sports were only trying a tournament and most players were looking at a month or two at most. And I’m sure that was tough. So if the only options were “let’s try this wing and a prayer or just not play at all” maybe it wasn’t such a bad decision. 

Yeah I am not sure there was much else they could do realistically, other than taking the measures they already have with keeping players separated/staggered as much as possible when getting treatments, working out, etc, and ofc wearing masks indoors and when in close proximity to others. I mean, who could possibly object to wearing a mask given what we have known for months about the transmission modes and rate? Oh, wait..

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31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I am not sure there was much else they could do realistically, other than taking the measures they already have with keeping players separated/staggered as much as possible when getting treatments, working out, etc, and ofc wearing masks indoors and when in close proximity to others. I mean, who could possibly object to wearing a mask given what we have known for months about the transmission modes and rate? Oh, wait..

Nothing happening has surprised me at all. This is just highlighting the issues that we have had for a while now.  One huge problem we face is because of our culture war going on and the teams mentality from that we have made things that shouldn’t and cannot be political such.  That’s really unhealthy and it’s happening on both sides. One thing that could shake up the current status quo on covid attitudes though is that rural transmission rates are increasing. Until now most conservative regions really have been less effected and that feeds into the political differences in covid attitudes. But it’s predicted this second wave will not spare rural areas like the first one did. Will attitudes change when both sides are seeing the impacts first hand?  I have my doubts but maybe. 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing happening has surprised me at all. This is just highlighting the issues that we have had for a while now.  One huge problem we face is because of our culture war going on and the teams mentality from that we have made things that shouldn’t and cannot be political such.  That’s really unhealthy and it’s happening on both sides. One thing that could shake up the current status quo on covid attitudes though is that rural transmission rates are increasing. Until now most conservative regions really have been less effected and that feeds into the political differences in covid attitudes. But it’s predicted this second wave will not spare rural areas like the first one did. Will attitudes change when both sides are seeing the impacts first hand?  I have my doubts but maybe. 

The current situation speaks for itself. The politicizing of mask wearing is completely absurd, pathetic, sad, and dangerous. It's baseless. And it is absolutely not "both sides" on this one.

COVID doesn't give a fuuck who you are, or what your ideology is.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The current situation speaks for itself. The politicizing of mask wearing is completely absurd, pathetic, sad, and dangerous. It's baseless. And it is absolutely not "both sides" on this one.

COVID doesn't give a fuuck who you are, or what your ideology is.

Well said! 

 

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I’ll just say this. I try to be respectful of people so I give them a wide berth, and I wear my mask when indoors in public. And of course I have to wear it in school. But this, for me, confirms what I’ve thought all along. We are all eventually getting this virus. So I will continue to be respectful of others but I’ll not spend a minute worrying whether I’m gonna get it because I’m already resigned to the fact that I will.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll just say this. I try to be respectful of people so I give them a wide berth, and I wear my mask when indoors in public. And of course I have to wear it in school. But this, for me, confirms what I’ve thought all along. We are all eventually getting this virus. So I will continue to be respectful of others but I’ll not spend a minute worrying whether I’m gonna get it because I’m already resigned to the fact that I will.

I am in the middle of teaching a class now. Wearing a mask while lecturing is a bit interesting- it tends to fall down off the nose when you talk, so I am constantly adjusting. It clearly minimizes the chances of transmission though, and it is a minor inconvenience at most. I just don't get the whole "liberate" political crap. We all wear seatbelts, and we didn't used to have to do that either. Wearing a mask minimizes the spread of all sorts of viruses. After getting Norovirus in back to back winters, I started paying more attention to hygiene when out in public places and keeping distance from random people, even before all this. Assuming we get a vaccine and this passes, I may very well continue wearing a mask in certain situations, esp during the winter months. A major aspect of "fixing" the healthcare issues we have in this country is preventative.

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The current situation speaks for itself. The politicizing of mask wearing is completely absurd, pathetic, sad, and dangerous. It's baseless. And it is absolutely not "both sides" on this one.

COVID doesn't give a fuuck who you are, or what your ideology is.

The covid thing is not both sides. And I think we would probably agree that overall one side is way more guilty of this in general. But I have seen liberals do the same general thing, taking a contrarian stance on something just to oppose conservatives when they otherwise wouldn’t give a bleep. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll just say this. I try to be respectful of people so I give them a wide berth, and I wear my mask when indoors in public. And of course I have to wear it in school. But this, for me, confirms what I’ve thought all along. We are all eventually getting this virus. So I will continue to be respectful of others but I’ll not spend a minute worrying whether I’m gonna get it because I’m already resigned to the fact that I will.

The thing is, the longer that we can delay “everyone” from getting it, the better chance that we’ll have:  1) better testing, 2) better treatment, 3) a useful vaccine.  The President is already receiving treatment that wasn’t available months ago.  It is also possible that the virus strain could weaken over time throughout its mutations.  What we’ve been doing (distancing/masks/etc) hasn’t been a futile exercise.  It is giving people a better shot going forward.

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26 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The thing is, the longer that we can delay “everyone” from getting it, the better chance that we’ll have:  1) better testing, 2) better treatment, 3) a useful vaccine.  The President is already receiving treatment that wasn’t available months ago.  It is also possible that the virus strain could weaken over time throughout its mutations.  What we’ve been doing (distancing/masks/etc) hasn’t been a futile exercise.  It is giving people a better shot going forward.

Totally agree and I guess I’ll just leave it at that. 

 

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All I'll say is we as a country can't sustain the current path . We have to move forward with life as we know it taking the best precautions as possible with covid . It will be with us for possibly years but moving forward nonetheless...or this country will fold like a deck a cards imo. Concentrate the resources to LTC facilities and  hospitals but the majority have to push forward.  I'm not looking for a debate here . Just wanted to Express a opinion...that's all:D

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

All I'll say is we as a country can't sustain the current path . We have to move forward with life as we know it taking the best precautions as possible with covid . It will be with us for possibly years but moving forward nonetheless...or this country will fold like a deck a cards imo. Concentrate the resources to LTC facilities and  hospitals but the majority have to push forward.  I'm not looking for a debate here . Just wanted to Express a opinion...that's all:D

Agreed.

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We are moving forward though, with some scientifically proven preventative measures in place to save lives. This is America. We make sacrifices, and take actions for the greater good, even if it is uncomfortable sometimes. That's patriotism. No solution is perfect. Congress needs to get this new stimulus bill done though.

As MN Transplant said in his post above, we are biding our time. Progress has been/is being made with testing and development of an effective vaccine. This wont be forever.

 

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Looks like the Saints found out one of their players tested positive, after landing in Detroit last night for their game with the Lions. Contact tracing and further tests this morning. Could be another postponement.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looks like the Saints found out one of their players tested positive, after landing in Detroit last night for their game with the Lions. Contact tracing and further tests this morning. Could be another postponement.

Folks now reporting the player tested again and it was negative the 2nd time.

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12 hours ago, CAPE said:

I am in the middle of teaching a class now. Wearing a mask while lecturing is a bit interesting- it tends to fall down off the nose when you talk, so I am constantly adjusting. It clearly minimizes the chances of transmission though, and it is a minor inconvenience at most. I just don't get the whole "liberate" political crap. We all wear seatbelts, and we didn't used to have to do that either. Wearing a mask minimizes the spread of all sorts of viruses. After getting Norovirus in back to back winters, I started paying more attention to hygiene when out in public places and keeping distance from random people, even before all this. Assuming we get a vaccine and this passes, I may very well continue wearing a mask in certain situations, esp during the winter months. A major aspect of "fixing" the healthcare issues we have in this country is preventative.

The last sentence you wrote cannot be stressed enough.

And two of the most preventative things Americans can do is totally within our control. Get off your butt and put the fork down sooner. And I’ll admit that even though I consider myself healthy by doing both of those, I need to do them both better.

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