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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro!!! (Practicing for winter)

Has some flakes at the end of it's run lol

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

Gotta think even with rain at lower elevations those temps are upper 30’ at best. This could get interesting for the lake belts if comes to fruition. And did the euro just cave to the GFS at long range?

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Well out into next weekend and into the early part of the last week
of October, some guidance is suggesting a large cold air mass
dropping south into the upper Midwest. 850H temps within the center
of this cool airmass are approaching -20C in Western Ontario. While
this is a long way out, and well to our northwest, this looks to be
the coldest airmass of the season and will works its way east toward
the region.

814temp.new (1).gif

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Beautiful fall frosty morning. Down to 32 here in my neck of the woods, coldest morning of the season so far. Love it. 
Yeah, same here and I love the look of a frosty Fall morning! Looking like a decent warm up next week approaching the low 70's then whack, a big cool down next weekend. I really like what I'm seeing on the extended so we'll see. I just wanna see a Normal Fall followed by a decent Winter, Not too cold with feet of snow, thats not asking for much, right?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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47 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yeah, same here and I love the look of a frosty Fall morning! Looking like a decent warm up next week approaching the low 70's then whack, a big cool down next weekend. I really like what I'm seeing on the extended so we'll see. I just wanna see a Normal Fall followed by a decent Winter, Not too cold with feet of snow, thats not asking for much, right?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

We can hope. We can dream.

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41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Made it down to 26° overnight, looks like will be waiting a while longer for our first flakes, globals don't have much of interest in the next 10-14 days..

Yeah that ended quickly. I said it in an earlier post to BW that I’m hoping this isn’t one of those years where the cold and snow always seems 10 to 14 days away but never gets closer

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The LR has really mellowed. It may be some time before we have a shot at winter around here...and for those who say “but the lakes will be warmer” that can be a detriment within about 5 to 10 miles away from the lake between rain and snow...it’s early but I’m getting a bit frustrated looking at all the models having such a warm bias for the winter 

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Loving this gorgeous fall weather. 60s during the day and upper 30s-40s at night is just perfect. I hope it stays like this for another month before it flips. It’s great to be able to enjoy fall activities and before you know it it’ll be full on winter and we’ll be wishing for nice weather like this to get out of the house. 

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I did a few drone montages on some of the fall scenery in CNY. Very nice this year. Was up in New Hampshire last weekend - also great stuff going on up there. Did end up with 2 ticks on me after a quick jaunt in the woods today near Skaneateles. Crazy how much more common that is now than when I was a kid growing up.

 

 

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Looks like a rainy few days ahead..

A cold front crossing the area early this morning will stall from
the western Southern Tier to Central NY from late this morning
through Tuesday. Several waves of low pressure will ripple along the
stalled frontal zone, producing widespread, beneficial rain across
the entire region.

A mid level shortwave and upper level jet segment will cross the
eastern Great Lakes this morning through mid afternoon, with
associated forcing and mid level flow adjustments supporting a
baroclinic wave running northeast along the stalled frontal zone.
This will support widespread rain today across the entire region.
There will likely be a brief break in the widespread rain from mid
to late afternoon through early this evening, although abundant and
deep low level moisture may still support fairly widespread drizzle
and/or light rain. Another mid level shortwave and jet segment will
then cross the eastern Great Lakes later this evening through the
overnight, supporting another round of widespread rainfall.

This second batch of widespread rain will then taper off from
southwest to northeast Tuesday morning as the frontal wave moves off
into eastern NY and New England. There may still be some drizzle
left behind through Tuesday afternoon in some locations, especially
across the higher terrain. Total rainfall from today through Tuesday
will likely reach 0.75-1.0 inch in many areas, with a few locations
across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region exceeding 1
inch.

Low clouds and patchy fog will become a common theme from late this
morning through Tuesday morning as abundant low level moisture locks
in on the cool side of the stalled frontal zone. The fog may become
somewhat more widespread with lower visibilities across higher
terrain where the stratus intersects the hilltops.

Temperatures will be quite cool, with highs today struggling to
reach 50 in many areas. Temperatures will remain fairly steady
tonight, with highs only in the lower 50s Tuesday in most locations.
Areas from near the PA state line through the Finger Lakes to Oswego
County may reach the mid to upper 50s Tuesday if the stalled frontal
zone drifts a little north and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave over the upper Midwest and associated sfc low will
take aim at the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, then the
whole complex passes to our northwest during the day Wednesday.
As this occurs, the frontal boundary residing near the Lower
Lakes shift back north as a warm front Tuesday night. Still
anticipating a few showers with the warm front, then a brief
lull in precipitation will occur until the front returns as a
cold front early Wednesday afternoon. With the cold front, best
forcing appears like it will reside across the North Country and
St. Lawrence River Valley. Should also be enough forcing
immediately along the front to produce a narrow band of showers.
Have bumped up POPs to reflect this scenario across the
forecast area and especially across the North Country. Overall,
should be a fair amount of dry time Wednesday and mild
conditions. Highs will peak in the upper 60s to the low and mid
70s across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.

d13_fill.gif

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I am glad that it’s not been dry recently in the Great Lakes which can help to keep cooler air around vs  If the ground was dry. Looking for promise here.

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

All my beautiful colors are gone:thumbsdown:

Screenshot_20201019-124610.png.f9ce4b92f

Foliage_Digital_week6_NOILNY_7cbf39c5-760a-469b-be8d-96c92af88429.png

I’m over the colors, let’s replace it all with glorious white!!

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21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’m over the colors, let’s replace it all with glorious white!!

The color change was in if the faster ones I can remember...give it about 4 weeks, that is a legitimate time frame...in fact I think our biggest synoptic storm was last year right around mid November 

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

All my beautiful colors are gone:thumbsdown:

Screenshot_20201019-124610.png.f9ce4b92f

Foliage_Digital_week6_NOILNY_7cbf39c5-760a-469b-be8d-96c92af88429.png

Yeah we done here.

I was in the Hudson Valley (New Paltz) over the weekend and they were at peak.  It was a beautiful foliage weekend at Minnewaska.

 

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