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Average first flake is next week.

BUFFALO

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 18
 

EARLIEST EVER

First Flake Sep 20, 1956
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 6, 1991
First Inch Oct 10, 1906
 
LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 22, 1946 & 1985
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 18, 2015
First Inch Jan 2, 1932

ROCHESTER

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 23
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 20
 

EARLIEST EVER

First Flake Sep 20, 1956
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 9, 1925
First Inch Oct 11, 1906
 
LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 20, 1918
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 10, 1948
First Inch Dec 28, 2015

 

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Average first flake is next week.

BUFFALO

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 18
 

EARLIEST EVER

First Flake Sep 20, 1956
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 6, 1991
First Inch Oct 10, 1906
 
LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 22, 1946 & 1985
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 18, 2015
First Inch Jan 2, 1932

ROCHESTER

AVERAGE First Flake Oct 23
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Nov 8
First Inch Nov 20
 

EARLIEST EVER

First Flake Sep 20, 1956
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Oct 9, 1925
First Inch Oct 11, 1906
 
LATEST EVER First Flake Nov 20, 1918
First Measurable (0.1" or more) Dec 10, 1948
First Inch Dec 28, 2015

 

I remember ‘15. We were all so pissed on the WIVB weather blog that we didn’t receive our first inch and IIRc we blew that record out of the water by a few weeks. Looking back that was pretty much the beginning for me of understanding the highs and lows of winter weather.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I remember ‘15. We were all so pissed on the WIVB weather blog that we didn’t receive our first inch and IIRc we blew that record out of the water by a few weeks. Looking back that was pretty much the beginning for me of understanding the highs and lows of winter weather.

Yeah 15-16 was a brutal winter here. Only 1" of snow up to Jan 1st. 2001-2 was like that too until christmas weekend and boom. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like 2nd half of October goes back to above average. SE ridge and a battleground develops. I'd take this look in winter, we would be very active.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

I would as well, it looked like that more towards the end of winter last year, wouldn’t get much lake effect but synoptic we could cash

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

+1.3 for the month of October so far. 

Wow. Meanwhile were +3.7 for the month. 

If the Euro pans out, this month may not end up all that cold as we initially assumed a week ago. The Euro solution does have some merit, in my opinion, because the Atlantic is running well above normal and that only strengthens the ridge off the coast and keeps the cold air towards the Plains. But with that impressive NAO block and Pacific block, it's debatable. I think Buffalo will end up slightly below normal for the month. 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Wow. Meanwhile were +3.7 for the month. 

If the Euro pans out, this month may not end up all that cold as we initially assumed a week ago. The Euro solution does have some merit, in my opinion, because the Atlantic is running well above normal and that only strengthens the ridge off the coast and keeps the cold air towards the Plains. But with that impressive NAO block and Pacific block, it's debatable. I think Buffalo will end up slightly below normal for the month. 

I'd agree with slightly below as well. 

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I don't really remember the last time it was this late into October and all the yards I cut are so dry it resembles more like august. Normally I'd be fighting the weather to get everyone cut for the week but some places I haven't cut since September since we just haven't had the rain+the total sunlight per day is shrinking fast.

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah I’m seeing a feedback trend here with the GFS...something we’ve witnessed too many times in the past...the GFS is over doing the cold and snow early in the season. It doesn’t bode well for the true winter season ahead as I’m afraid we’re going to see a lot of head fakes 

It definitely has a cold bias outside of 6-7 days. 

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