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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I saw this in the March thread, but it’s more on topic for a general thread.  The answer to your question is neither – we just drive over it and pack it down.  We’d seriously be shoveling almost every day if we dealt with each round of snow.  Also note that the snow is typically extremely dry, so for an inch of snow with just a few hundredths of an inch of liquid in it, you just crush it to dust under the tires or you can let it sublimate and disappear.

I don’t travel a bunch to the green mountain spine these days but I also imagine that it is similar from my experience in Maine that it’s better to have packed snow on the driveway anyway for traction vs bare pavement (or near-bare) which becomes way more susceptible to being a sheet of ice when conditions are wrong. 

Ive noticed most driveways and lots up there usually keep the packed snow when they can. 

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah MPV def off the grid...it’s acting up. I told Brian low 40s maybe believable and that is backed up by mreaves post. Not sure if airport runs colder but wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t get out of upper 30s. 

Tax dollar at work

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Balmy start to the day. After we spiked to 40F last evening, it eventually dropped back down to 30F overnight but it's already back up to 36F as of 7am. The snow developed a crust layer with the overnight re-freeze, but should go through a true "corn cycle" (in skier terms) once the sun hits it for a couple hours this morning. As I mentioned last night, I think the overnight re-freeze was critical for good spring ski conditions today. I'm planning to lap the Cog to get some alpine views in low risk terrain today.

Tonight's event looks good for a quick 2-3" in my area, but I think areas below 1500' will struggle with the warm boundary layer. The models have a pocket of >0C 850 temps north of the Whites, so I have a feeling Phin's poor luck with downsloping recently will continue. 

Tomorrow evening's arctic front looks fun. There's a good signal for squalls, though the RGEM is focusing more on southern NH. We've had a dearth of WINDEX events this winter, but this could be a good one. The combination of wind and cold to follow looks to be among the worst we've seen all season, but thankfully this is a quick in-and-out. 

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t travel a bunch to the green mountain spine these days but I also imagine that it is similar from my experience in Maine that it’s better to have packed snow on the driveway anyway for traction vs bare pavement (or near-bare) which becomes way more susceptible to being a sheet of ice when conditions are wrong. 

Ive noticed most driveways and lots up there usually keep the packed snow when they can. 

90% of the residential driveways here locally are gravel, unless there are extreme freeze/thaw cycles, driveways just stay snow packed for the most part in the heart of winter.  With higher sun angle and freeze/thaw cycle things get dicey now though.

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11 hours ago, dendrite said:

That's pretty weak for what I expected from BTV. I know they can torch out, but I still figured they'd do longer stretches of 12+ in their record than that. We've pulled Dec-Apr a couple of times since I moved here.

Longest 12"+ run here was in 2007-08 (probably the same for you) with 128 days, 12/13 thru 4/18.

2.4" yesterday from 0.36" LE, with 0.01" dz afterwards.  That 6.7-to-1 ratio is right on the season as a whole, by far the lowest I've measured - first time below 8:1 and my average here is a bit over 10.  My 13 winters at Gardiner averaged just over 10 as well and even with a warming climate we're still significantly colder here than Gardiner when we lived there.  Just a messy-snow winter.

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39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Longest 12"+ run here was in 2007-08 (probably the same for you) with 128 days, 12/13 thru 4/18.

2.4" yesterday from 0.36" LE, with 0.01" dz afterwards.  That 6.7-to-1 ratio is right on the season as a whole, by far the lowest I've measured - first time below 8:1 and my average here is a bit over 10.  My 13 winters at Gardiner averaged just over 10 as well and even with a warming climate we're still significantly colder here than Gardiner when we lived there.  Just a messy-snow winter.

The irony here is that I haven’t had much sleet and the December storm probably makes this one of the higher ratio snow seasons for me. 

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5 hours ago, jculligan said:

Balmy start to the day. After we spiked to 40F last evening, it eventually dropped back down to 30F overnight but it's already back up to 36F as of 7am. The snow developed a crust layer with the overnight re-freeze, but should go through a true "corn cycle" (in skier terms) once the sun hits it for a couple hours this morning. As I mentioned last night, I think the overnight re-freeze was critical for good spring ski conditions today. I'm planning to lap the Cog to get some alpine views in low risk terrain today.

Tonight's event looks good for a quick 2-3" in my area, but I think areas below 1500' will struggle with the warm boundary layer. The models have a pocket of >0C 850 temps north of the Whites, so I have a feeling Phin's poor luck with downsloping recently will continue. 

Tomorrow evening's arctic front looks fun. There's a good signal for squalls, though the RGEM is focusing more on southern NH. We've had a dearth of WINDEX events this winter, but this could be a good one. The combination of wind and cold to follow looks to be among the worst we've seen all season, but thankfully this is a quick in-and-out. 

Snow pack at Hermit lake has finally reached~50” as it’s been around 45” for weeks now. They’ve been tracking the plot for almost 4 seasons now and surprisingly every season has achieved an 80+” pack there that peaks usually mid to late March but sometimes even early April. 17-18 hit around 80”. 18-19 hit 100”. It surprised me that even last season 19-20, which seemed below average to mediocre at best hit about 90” in early April. So there’s a good amount of ground still to make up there over the next few weeks to reach the levels of the last few years and models are looking pretty dry For the first half of March. Have You toured up there recently?

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Looks like quite the arctic cold front passing through later tomorrow.  Snow squalls with rapidly falling temperatures.  I don't know how overdone these weatherbell wind gust map is?  Usually with synoptic storms they seem to be with strong winds struggling to get down to the surface.  Perhaps with NW winds they are more accurate.  61mph gust in Plymouth NH (my area) is very impressive.  Could be a fun few hours with this fropa.

wind.jpg

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Looks like there could be some decent squalls tomorrow with the FROPA.

A good deal of them have a nice max right near J.Spin's house, but none are better than the Canadian version of the HRRR.... 

hrdps-vt-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4654000.thumb.png.eaa487af9436230bb4e0c7bf5e66bcde.png

EURO...

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4654000.thumb.png.280c879b8b37f938335ba8f1747a590b.png

3KM NAM has it more down near the Killington region.

nam-nest-vt-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4657600.thumb.png.638976088092bd4e9a4809da3922090c.png

 

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18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looks like quite the arctic cold front passing through later tomorrow.  Snow squalls with rapidly falling temperatures.  I don't know how overdone these weatherbell wind gust map is?  Usually with synoptic storms they seem to be with strong winds struggling to get down to the surface.  Perhaps with NW winds they are more accurate.  61mph gust in Plymouth NH (my area) is very impressive.  Could be a fun few hours with this fropa.

wind.jpg

Whoop,  forgot to attach the graphic

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46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Whoop,  forgot to attach the graphic

In this case for a well mixed atmosphere these progs are probably pretty close. I think somewhere around 40 knots is pretty close.

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How far below Normal is Mansfield this year on its Snow depth and accumulations chart. I haven't followed that area particularly closely for last 5 weeks but that is also because i believe there have been a lack of good up slope snow last month. I wouldn't be shocked if this was one of their leaner years just going on a hunch. Seems Phin has done better than anyone In NNE relative to ave.

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32 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How far below Normal is Mansfield this year on its Snow depth and accumulations chart. I haven't followed that area particularly closely for last 5 weeks but that is also because i believe there have been a lack of good up slope snow last month. I wouldn't be shocked if this was one of their leaner years just going on a hunch. Seems Phin has done better than anyone In NNE relative to ave.

J. Spin has me beat. He is closing in on average I think. I am probably on top of the leaderboard in NH. About 120 inches so far for my neighbor I think. 

Edit: realized you may mean depth. In that case I was basically near average, or slightly below now with the garbage of the last few days. So I may be closest to average in that metric. Not sure what J. Spin usually has OTG at this time. 

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23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How far below Normal is Mansfield this year on its Snow depth and accumulations chart. I haven't followed that area particularly closely for last 5 weeks but that is also because i believe there have been a lack of good up slope snow last month. I wouldn't be shocked if this was one of their leaner years just going on a hunch. Seems Phin has done better than anyone In NNE relative to ave.

Below average depth looks like. I don't think Phins area has been better than most of VT. He looks below normal to date. I think JSpin is above normal to date(he can confirm)Figure all of Maine is well below average? Not really NNE here, more CNE but no one is probably more above average here than my area, Im already prob 25-30 inches above seasonal average, not even to season to date-- prob more like 50 inches above normal to date. Anyone else can chime in.  I know RUT area is also prob near seasonal averages or above too before March even starts.

20210228_164622.thumb.jpg.963b7772a5125637c76a523e7c95b940.jpg

 

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

J. Spin has me beat. He is closing in on average I think. I am probably on top of the leaderboard in NH. About 120 inches so far for my neighbor I think. 

Edit: realized you may mean depth. In that case I was basically near average, or slightly below now with the garbage of the last few days. So I may be closest to average in that metric. Not sure what J. Spin usually has OTG at this time. 

Oh, yea not sure if he means depth or snowfall. 2 different metrics obviously.

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This season seems to be a bit more below average for northern New England than I realized. I think the 2 big storms in my area and a relatively good year in certain areas of southern Vermont made me think northern areas were closer to average. Also the really nice stretch of cold weather, with no thaws, great skiing, and substantial snow pack throughout most of the northeast from mid January till mid February seemed to mask the rest of the subpar winter except the December storm. Hopefully March delivers a few big coastal storms to the northern areas and keeps the season going late and strong.

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1 minute ago, LaGrangewx said:

This season seems to be a bit more below average for northern New England than I realized. I think the 2 big storms in my area and a relatively good year in certain areas of southern Vermont made me think northern areas were closer to average. Also the really nice stretch of cold weather, with no thaws, great skiing, and substantial snow pack throughout most of the northeast from mid January till mid February seemed to mask the rest of the subpar winter except the December storm. Hopefully March delivers a few big coastal storms to the northern areas and keeps the season going late and strong.

Well said!

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1 hour ago, LaGrangewx said:

This season seems to be a bit more below average for northern New England than I realized. I think the 2 big storms in my area and a relatively good year in certain areas of southern Vermont made me think northern areas were closer to average. Also the really nice stretch of cold weather, with no thaws, great skiing, and substantial snow pack throughout most of the northeast from mid January till mid February seemed to mask the rest of the subpar winter except the December storm. Hopefully March delivers a few big coastal storms to the northern areas and keeps the season going late and strong.

Yeah it’s weird, the mountain has been skiing like a much larger snow depth.  It really hasn’t felt like a sub-par winter to me... the lower elevations are definitely seemingly closer to normal (if not near normal).  

BTV airport is right around normal, JSpin has to be near normal and I feel like it’s been pretty close to normal here.  Central/Southern VT solidly above normal snow.  VT has seemed pretty good this year looking at the stats.

The 3,000ft and above level has been solidly below normal snow but with good snow down lower the skiing has been excellent.  Many have remarked about how the backcountry has been in play for so long, even low elevation stuff.

Most locals seem to think this has been a good winter for skiing after December.  You never get 6 weeks without a rain event and just pow on pow.

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44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s weird, the mountain has been skiing like a much larger snow depth.  It really hasn’t felt like a sub-par winter to me... the lower elevations are definitely seemingly closer to normal (if not near normal).  

BTV airport is right around normal, JSpin has to be near normal and I feel like it’s been pretty close to normal here.  Central/Southern VT solidly above normal snow.  VT has seemed pretty good this year looking at the stats.

The 3,000ft and above level has been solidly below normal snow but with good snow down lower the skiing has been excellent.  Many have remarked about how the backcountry has been in play for so long, even low elevation stuff.

Most locals seem to think this has been a good winter for skiing after December.  You never get 6 weeks without a rain event and just pow on pow.

Definitely agree. The meat of the ski season has been very good all over for average snowfall at a lot of places. I think New Hampshire into maine is probably a bit behind vermont in terms of near average snowfall and snow depths. 

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Just took a walk around the yard and there is still an average 19” snow depth. It was a relatively warm weekend but we only lost 4”. Really is going to turn into a glacier after this quick cold shot. It’s only my second winter up here but I kept feeling we were just one large synoptic event from it being a great winter. They have missed N. VT in all directions it seems so maybe it will still happen.

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4 minutes ago, timp said:

Just took a walk around the yard and there is still an average 19” snow depth. It was a relatively warm weekend but we only lost 4”. Really is going to turn into a glacier after this quick cold shot. It’s only my second winter up here but I kept feeling we were just one large synoptic event from it being a great winter. They have missed N. VT in all directions it seems so maybe it will still happen.

Yep. Same feel here. 

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