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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

I know you're still in rehab, but once cleared do you have a trucking job you're seeking to go back to by chance? 

NAPA Transportation out of Mechanicsburg is interested, but I'm going to look at some others as well. I don't have a good place to park a truck, so I'd like to find one with a terminal closer in if possible.

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4 hours ago, Voyager said:

NAPA Transportation out of Mechanicsburg is interested, but I'm going to look at some others as well. I don't have a good place to park a truck, so I'd like to find one with a terminal closer in if possible.

I hear @sauss06 has access to fire engines he can use as your Uber. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I hear @sauss06 has access to fire engines he can use as your Uber. 

That would work. He could turn on the red, spinning lights and get me home quickly...lol

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Finally a good rainstorm in this area today that drew a half decent response on the local streams. Actually overachieved in the portion of PA that needs it the most by the looks of the totals CTP received (map thru 6pm tonight) with a stripe of 1.5-2+" up the center of the state. 

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It is still stupid warm out at this hour at 63ºF degrees to go with the pretty much 100% humidity and fog. The 2 inch snowfall i received on the morning of the 2nd feels about as distant of a memory as last year with the past week's stretch of warm weather. Can't remember a stretch of November weather that was so warm with a couple days in the past week up around 75ºF or so. That's just about as warm as it can possibly get this time of the year around here. Certainly the opposite of the past couple mid Novembers, which were quite cold. I know we did cash in the early cold in 2018 with the big snowstorm but that setup doesn't come around too often. I'd rather be in the thick of this significant above average regime now than 3-4 weeks from now. 

We still look to linger somewhat above average to close out this week even with the passage of today's system. However, the next system slated for around Monday looks to finally send some late November/early Dec caliber chill into the region next week. Overall not really seeing anything yet on the models I'm particularly excited about in terms of anything noteworthy that sticks quite yet. There's cold opportunities but it's transient looking. We've been working a pretty strong +AO/NAO and -PNA which helped contribute to the cause of the very warm weather here. Model progs take the edge off that regime a bit but still keeping the AO/NAO positive and PNA somewhat negative. MJO working phase 8-1- possibly 2, which sounds good but this time of the year phase 8 and 1 equate differently. Using OND data, phase 8 is a bit of a tossup and phase 1 skews warm on the east coast while colder over the rest of the country. These two phases show more warmth with the SON data, which arguably might be the better one to apply right now given the late tropical activity and warmer than average waters in the Atlantic and Gulf. MJO may get into phase 2, which is a colder phase in either SON or OND.. so that might lend some support for such things. But otherwise, while we're going to finally trend colder starting next week.. I'm not seeing an established legit winter pattern emerging quite yet. And given we're still just getting into mid November, that's fine. 

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thx Mag.  Great stuff as always.  Yeah, as we dont seemingly have an abundance of cold anymore, lets not "waste" it when its just an anomaly.  Step down starting next week is fine /w me/us.

 

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39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

thx Mag.  Great stuff as always.  Yeah, as we dont seemingly have an abundance of cold anymore, lets not "waste" it when its just an anomaly.  Step down starting next week is fine /w me/us.

 

I was thinking about this the other day when it was 77 degrees...as nice as it was, there was nothing to suggest that wintry weather was remotely close. If we can get temps knocked back down at least close to normal, we can start having realistic conversations about what we really want to talk about. And in mid-November that's where we want to be. 

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33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was thinking about this the other day when it was 77 degrees...as nice as it was, there was nothing to suggest that wintry weather was remotely close. If we can get temps knocked back down at least close to normal, we can start having realistic conversations about what we really want to talk about. And in mid-November that's where we want to be. 

cant agree more.  Will be nice to have some holiday weather around the holidays, as we need whatever we can get to boost ones spirits right now. 

What a truely F'd up year in so so sooooo many ways.......

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The outlook for this winter looks pretty mild. Obviously these things can be wrong and it just takes a lucky setup to give us a huge snowstorm but it's not looking great. Remember the 2011-2012 winter during our last huge la nina? I wouldn't be surprised if this current la nina does something like that either this winter or next winter. Depends how long and how strong it stays but right now it's making its way to being the strongest since the 2010-12 la nina

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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well at least it feels closer to November weather today than the September weather we've been experiencing. As Nut says "let's step it down..."

Yes indeed! Our time is coming soon.

In the meantime, let’s step it down...

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The fall of Penn State football this year is numbing...4 weeks ago at this time the experts projected the Lions as a potential playoff team. 
Weather observation- it is a spectacular fall Saturday!

Good.

I’m a Pitt fan.


.

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So far this frontal passage has ripped through Ohio to the tune of almost 200k without power via First Energy"s outage map, and some outages starting to appear in western PA. Currently receiving some heavy rain just out ahead of the frontal line itself... which is moving rapidly and likely to be here in the next hour or so. 

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38 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

So far this frontal passage has ripped through Ohio to the tune of almost 200k without power via First Energy"s outage map, and some outages starting to appear in western PA. Currently receiving some heavy rain just out ahead of the frontal line itself... which is moving rapidly and likely to be here in the next hour or so. 

Watching this thing move east right along with you. Any chance of lightning with the squall line?

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Watching this thing move east right along with you. Any chance of lightning with the squall line?

Doesn't look like it but can't rule out a strike or two. There may be a bit of extra instability in eastern PA. There was lightning early with the portion of the line that tracked through northern Ohio with the better dynamics in the Great Lakes region. 

Front arrived with broken line of showers but have had some good wind gusts. Neighbor across the street just lost a tree about 15 min ago.

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As normal, north and south of camp hill/harrisburg looks to walloped but not so much here :p  already sounds like the rains cut down vs the driving rain a minute or two ago

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24 minutes ago, Anduril said:

As normal, north and south of camp hill/harrisburg looks to walloped but not so much here :p  already sounds like the rains cut down vs the driving rain a minute or two ago

Can confirm. We will get some wind here shortly but that line did nothing here except some decent rain. The mountain split really can disturb storms locally. 

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