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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Let's hope we don't repeat the vanishing rainstorm of last week, for everyone's sake.

Think it'll be hard for this monster to vanish, honestly. 

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37 minutes ago, canderson said:

Think it'll be hard for this monster to vanish, honestly. 

Yeah...have to agree.  If this one goes poof....all hope IS lost.

May be obvious +\- adjustments but I think many water tables will get freshened up by this.  Sure hope so.  

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CMC jumped on board the snow train for late week.  I80 and north but best accums seem to run rt 6 corridor. Old GFS agrees.  nooner GooFuS 2.0 not out yet but looks similar to above mentioned 12z's .  Although way out for NAM's to carry much weight, they look similar in snowfall maps, so if we are looking for continuity, I'd say we have some.  

I think I'll take my late season winter gear for hunting this weekend.  19 sat morn is NOT what I call nice archery weather.  Did it last year and hoped I'd not have to anytime soon.  So much for that...

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I think the whole subforum is basically locked into the washout Thur into early Friday for at least an inch or so. The only question now with the rainfall is how much of PA sees the more excessive 2+ totals, which is likely going to hinge on how far the remnant low of Zeta presses north before getting arced eastward. This morning's WPC map really knocked that down from yesterday.. with only the southern tier below the turnpike seeing 2" or more now. They seem to be factoring more heavily the GFS/GEFS in that makeup. I personally expect a lot of 1.5-2" type amounts in the subforum, with perhaps the far NW near an inch. If Zeta gets high enough and tracks just south of the Mason-Dixon line, that would likely send it's swath of more excessive rainfall rates directly associated with the tropical system itself into a good portion of southern PA. 

Flash flood guidance is through the roof, and thus we'd need a widespread 4"+ rainfall in 6 or 12hrs to see any notable issues in that department. We'd be hard pressed to see that even if Zeta sent it's swath of heaviest precip right through the heart of C-PA. Either way, this will be a very beneficial rainfall. 

xhr6-1.thumb.png.707eb6c74816cec09eec8ec951388199.png

 

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33 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the whole subforum is basically locked into the washout Thur into early Friday for at least an inch or so. The only question now with the rainfall is how much of PA sees the more excessive 2+ totals, which is likely going to hinge on how far the remnant low of Zeta presses north before getting arced eastward. This morning's WPC map really knocked that down from yesterday.. with only the southern tier below the turnpike seeing 2" or more now. They seem to be factoring more heavily the GFS/GEFS in that makeup. I personally expect a lot of 1.5-2" type amounts in the subforum, with perhaps the far NW near an inch. If Zeta gets high enough and tracks just south of the Mason-Dixon line, that would likely send it's swath of more excessive rainfall rates directly associated with the tropical system itself into a good portion of southern PA. 

Flash flood guidance is through the roof, and thus we'd need a widespread 4"+ rainfall in 6 or 12hrs to see any notable issues in that department. We'd be hard pressed to see that even if Zeta sent it's swath of heaviest precip right through the heart of C-PA. Either way, this will be a very beneficial rainfall. 

xhr6-1.thumb.png.707eb6c74816cec09eec8ec951388199.png

 

Thanks for the updates Mike.  I'm thinking the white potential is still a Rt 6 and NE "event" and based on dynamics, it would be elevation driven with white rain in valleys and coating -2 or 3 for best spots Bradford-Susquehanna counties.  I'm guessing I get a slushy 1-2 in Gaines.  What's your thinking?  Any further shift south, and I'd think maybe far NE poconos would be jackpot for any appreciable snows, while we get light snow at end further NW.  

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5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks for the updates Mike.  I'm thinking the white potential is still a Rt 6 and NE "event" and based on dynamics, it would be elevation driven with white rain in valleys and coating -2 or 3 for best spots Bradford-Susquehanna counties.  I'm guessing I get a slushy 1-2 in Gaines.  What's your thinking?  Any further shift south, and I'd think maybe far NE poconos would be jackpot for any appreciable snows, while we get light snow at end further NW.  

The progressive pattern kind of limits the potential. If we end up with the further south track, it'll likely be because it ended up with a more progressive storm and you don't have as much time to get much of a changeover. Zeta runs out in front of the closed 500mb low, and the weakening 500mb low slides east just under us and doesn't really phase with the northern branch. This is a really big early season snowstorm if these things phased together with the cold available nearby, but we're too progressive. I think that far northern part of PA does change over at the end but probably the inch or less variety slushy accumulation.. pretty much your guess. 

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40 minutes ago, canderson said:

This is perfect rain. Not too heavy so no flooding issues and the ground can soak in as much as it can. 

I agree, nice raw fall rainy day. I'm looking for the dry slot coming in. :D I can't wait to use those sayings in the winter time version of today's weather.

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16 minutes ago, paweather said:

I agree, nice raw fall rainy day. I'm looking for the dry slot coming in. :D I can't wait to use those sayings in the winter time version of today's weather.

The sun angle on this rain is serious though - worst time for it!!!

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Some lighter rain currently, with some heavier stuff out near Pittsburgh likely to move back in soon. It's def been quite a rainy day here... and also somewhat breezy with a stiff wind out of the NNE. Need this to return in about a month and a half. 

Speaking of flakes... looking beyond today's system to the end of the weekend into Monday, we have a very strong frontal passage progged for later Sunday. This brings -8 to -10ºC 850mb air into all of PA by Monday morning. Brief window with this cold shot but it's looking to be a potent one that will present a 6-12hr period where we light up the western/central PA counties with snow showers and even squalls for the first time. The NW snowbelt could get some accumulations out of this as well as lighter amounts into the Laurels. Reasonable chance some scattered action gets into the Sus Valley in the form of wet flakes and/or grapuel mixed in Monday. The anomalies with this airmass at 850 are in the -10 to -12ºC range below climo for the first half of Monday. 

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19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Some lighter rain currently, with some heavier stuff out near Pittsburgh likely to move back in soon. It's def been quite a rainy day here... and also somewhat breezy with a stiff wind out of the NNE. Need this to return in about a month and a half. 

Speaking of flakes... looking beyond today's system to the end of the weekend into Monday, we have a very strong frontal passage progged for later Sunday. This brings -8 to -10ºC 850mb air into all of PA by Monday morning. Brief window with this cold shot but it's looking to be a potent one that will present a 6-12hr period where we light up the western/central PA counties with snow showers and even squalls for the first time. The NW snowbelt could get some accumulations out of this as well as lighter amounts into the Laurels. Reasonable chance some scattered action gets into the Sus Valley in the form of wet flakes and/or grapuel mixed in Monday. The anomalies with this airmass at 850 are in the -10 to -12ºC range below climo for the first half of Monday. 

Thanks Mag for the update.

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49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

There was also this slightly unprecedented event on this date the very next year.

sandy_vir_2012303.jpg.f35a6e96a7a8f9472620db24fd2df44c.jpg

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Riding with the wife to work this morning, and we have some mangled snowflakes mixed in with the rain. Temp down to 36 degrees...

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