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Met1985

2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

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14 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Temp down to 35 this morning! This is more like it! The GFS and Euro are worlds apart on the pattern in the mid to long range. Im hedging towards the GFS currently.  It has been steadier than the euro this Fall.

Agreed. GFS has had a better handle on the Fall pattern this year. With the cool shots we've seen this season, it seems like the Euro has failed to spot them in advance with its modeling. It hasn't been able to see "cold" in the long range.

MJO is currently in Phase 4 (as of 10/12) and then goes to Phase 5 through the next week. Phase 4 is seasonable/up-down, but Phase 5 is decisively cooler than average in the Southeast for this time of year. Phases 7, 8, and 1 are the ones that are a warm pattern for this time of year while Phase 6 is transitional. Perhaps, Euro is thinking we enter into Phase 7 after a week? 

AO/NAO are currently negative and will be for at least the next couple weeks. This supports a cooler pattern as well in our region.

Judah Cohen (in his 10/12 update) stated that the MJO signal would weaken once it entered into Phase 5, and therefore, wouldn't influence the pattern that much. So, AO/NAO would have the main influence out of those two. Given these, his outlook going to 10/27 says that our area will be in a seasonable/cool pattern overall.

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Wind is starting to pick up here. Cold front will move in tonight. Going to be a fantastic leaf looking weekend then who knows. I think we go back to warm to cool, back to warm. Really this is pretty normal for this time of the year. Looks like we will be losing our blocking for a bit which is not good going forward.

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I am making my last fall trip up there on Sunday for this year. Not sure what will be left but I am sure there will still be color to be found. After that, it is following it to Hanging Rock/Pilot Mountain and out this way.

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Heading to Cataloochee Sunday to see the leaves/Elk...  what exit do I need to take to get there?   Also, how are the leaves in that area

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2 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Heading to Cataloochee Sunday to see the leaves/Elk...  what exit do I need to take to get there?   Also, how are the leaves in that area

Exit 20 on I-40, turn onto Cove Creek Rd and follow the signs.

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

There's some fantasy land eye candy on the 6z GFS around day 12. Maybe 2020 is just crazy enough? Nahhhh...359b93588f4f1aacf683ace9a02fbc67.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Seems about correct to see the first flakes begin to fly. My wife's birthday is at the end of October and we always find ourselves chasing a few token flakes around that time. These were taken in 2017, which I find similar to 2020. Both were Nina years, both were wet from Summer to Early Fall, both were good color years and both seem to be trending towards a cold ending in October. I am not sure how that fares for winter, I honestly can't remember how the 2017 winter unfolded.

These were taken on October 29th. We started in Bethel, NC and ended up finding snow near Max Patch.

image.png.f6df0048b9349cec556611296d6dd0c9.png

 

image.png.39a9dcecaebf44fe9db7288e963befa8.png

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Seems about correct to see the first flakes begin to fly. My wife's birthday is at the end of October and we always find ourselves chasing a few token flakes around that time. These were taken in 2017, which I find similar to 2020. Both were Nina years, both were wet from Summer to Early Fall, both were good color years and both seem to be trending towards a cold ending in October. I am not sure how that fares for winter, I honestly can't remember how the 2017 winter unfolded.
These were taken on October 29th. We started in Bethel, NC and ended up finding snow near Max Patch.
image.png.f6df0048b9349cec556611296d6dd0c9.png
 
image.png.39a9dcecaebf44fe9db7288e963befa8.png
Yeah, it's totally normal up here in Wolf, but its in the long range and we're supposed to mock fantasy land snowstorms, right?  My tune will change if its still showing up in a week. 

I took this here on 10/29/17.
0a2d56f44c0fe1f4e0d58d18919817cb.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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18 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Yeah, it's totally normal up here in Wolf, but its in the long range and we're supposed to mock fantasy land snowstorms, right?  My tune will change if its still showing up in a week. 

I took this here on 10/29/17.
0a2d56f44c0fe1f4e0d58d18919817cb.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I’ll leave the mocking to flatlanders, we welcome any blue that wants to show up on a map, no matter how far out. :D

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Sorry if it this a touch late but here is some video of what I saw on the 12th (watch in HD):

 

 

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Leaf season appears to be over between Boone and Grandfather at this point. It was all browned out past peak with a lot of bare trees. Any color that was still present was dull. Glad I caught it on the 12th. None the less I enjoyed the fall air. Time to see how it turns at Hanging Rock next.

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I re-edited this clip from the 12th with better color grading. The other version was too much and left a bit of a purple hue in the sky:

 

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57 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Nice video man!  I still say drones are cheating...you're hang supposed to hang glide for that shot man.

 

 

Hahaha the winds were pretty gusty up there for the drone as it was. I am sure that would have been an adventure to say the least

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Next year we will do the Blue Ridge on Fall Break. Seems to go 7-10 days earlier than Tennessee or even the Smokys, timed with fall break. Those pics on the Parkway are stunning. Even the cloudy day the trees pop out. 

Here is Saturday October 17 on the Cherohala Skyway. Pictures are taken from just inside NC at about 4,500 FT. Higher was well past peak. Lower was green. Past weekend only a thin 500 FT section was peaking. We enjoyed that elevation quite well. I suspect the 3,000-4,000 FT area will be great this coming weekend on the Tennessee side.

mountain.thumb.jpg.c075204c02d6e2aab00dca0b80a7777c.jpg

ridges.thumb.jpg.72a8293c031b1507dc1b318087b7bbb1.jpg

trail.thumb.jpg.99b48bf620a57d2084b34a2d1500b3c0.jpg

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I'm loving all of this vicariously. Although one of the (small) benefits of being down here is that it at least draws out a little longer.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Enjoy the warm weather. Its going to last for a while. 

I know it isn't popular in these parts but especially after staying winter until mid-May I don't mind this bit of Indian summer.  This Fall has been great compared to the scorch fest last year!

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42 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I know it isn't popular in these parts but especially after staying winter until mid-May I don't mind this bit of Indian summer.  This Fall has been great compared to the scorch fest last year!

This is a 180 from last fall where it was warm early, got cool toward the end of October through Mid-November and then flipped back to warm for December where we were in the mid-60s on Christmas. I can handle a warm (relative) November if in exchange we get a true fall and Christmas (one of which has already verified).

Let's hope this warmth is a good thing.

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Hanging Rock is closing in on peak. I was there today and I suspect it is within 4 days or so at most.

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