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2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

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Both the GFS and euro are honing in on the upslope snow coming in Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Im calling for 2 to 4 inches at the best locations currently.  Then flurries as you get away from the boarder. 

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Looks to be some impressive NW flow snow coming for the highest elevations. I'll be hiking Mount Leconte this weekend. There should probably be around 4-6" of accumulation on the peak.

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Looks to be some impressive NW flow snow coming for the highest elevations. I'll be hiking Mount Leconte this weekend. There should probably be around 4-6" of accumulation on the peak.
I'll be happy with just 1" more. That'll put me at 60" on the season.

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Just now, Buckethead said:

I'll be happy with just 1" more. That'll put me at 60" on the season.

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At 4300' I think that sounds doable. Wouldn't be surprised if you saw a little more.

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39 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I'll be happy with just 1" more. That'll put me at 60" on the season.

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It’s crazy, I just knew you’d hit 80” with the pattern we were looking at.  Then it shifted west...

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It’s crazy, I just knew you’d hit 80” with the pattern we were looking at.  Then it shifted west...
I was kinda glad for that shift. It took forever for the snow to finally melt. The drift on the north side of my house was at least 6' deep. The guys at the country club here were measuring snow this season too and according to them we've had 75". It's less than a mile from my location and only 100' higher, so I'm guessing there's some snowdrifts included in that total. I didn't notice that much more snow over there anyway.


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Another rainy day and another Flash Flood Watch in Maggie. I'm not expecting anymore than a dusting of snow, if that. I does concern me to see an uptick in the possibility of freezing rain late this afternoon into the evening. Hopefully this is the last of the hard freezes and we can begin to get the garden going!

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NWS just issued a flash flood warning for Macon. It seems like we’ve been under a warning more in the last 2 years then the past 4 or 5 years before that.

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GSP:

THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY BRING SFC TEMPS INTO THE   30S AT HIGH ELEVATIONS BEGINNING LATE EVENING; FREEZING LEVELS WILL   CONTINUE TO FALL SUCH THAT MIN TEMPS REACH THE MID 20S IN HIGHER   ELEVATIONS IN THE MORNING (MIN TEMP RECORD AT AVL DOES NOT LOOK   TO BE IN JEOPARDY). STILL LOOKING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF A   NW FLOW SNOW EVENT, WITH THE MAJOR "CLASSIC" INGREDIENTS LOOKING   TO COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE STRONG WINDS   AND RAPID COOLING OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUGGEST ABOVE-AVERAGE   SLRS, AND A NUMBER OF SOURCES STILL DEPICT A SMALL AMOUNT OF   INSTABILITY. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE A GREAT LAKES CONNECTION;   ALWAYS TRICKY TO FIND GUIDANCE THAT PRODUCES BELIEVABLE QPF IN THE   UPSLOPE AREAS, BUT FEELING PRETTY GOOD ABOUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 2   INCHES IN MOST OF THE NW FLOW ZONE, WITH ISOLATED 3". QPF TAPERS OFF   AFTER 18Z, BUT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THU EVENING.  

 

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Is there a model that handles NW flow snow the best? I’m assuming it would be one of the CAMs. HRRR or 3k NAM?


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Definitely not the HRRR. Honestly none of them do particularly well. The NAM is probably the best but it tends to overdo totals.

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Sunny skies here after a freeze this morning (no clue on temp but solid hunk of ice on the truck bed cover so I’m guessing upper 20’s maybe).  Might try to find some snow over in Harmon’s Den area later while doing some hiking.  

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I was disappointed to see only a light dusting that resulted from yesterday’s system. Fortunately, it seems as though the NW flow is staying strong. High peaks should pick up at least an inch I would think.


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