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Hoosier

September 2020 General Discussion

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23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Likely have seen the last 90+ day until next year.

 

 

Pattern the next 2 weeks suggests an average to below average regime, and after that it’s already late Sept and becomes increasingly difficult.

Tend to agree.  The shot to do it would have been next week if the boundary ended up farther north, but the Euro has backed off on that idea.

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We are probably going to see the unusual circumstance (for this time of year) of it being warmer by the lake during onshore flow in the daytime next week.  

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Sunday looks like a rally cap day.  Current scenario is for contamination lingering for a good part of the day around here before a potential rapid warmup in the afternoon.  Could see the high temp hold off until 5-6 pm to take advantage of the tail end of the solar input.

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We are probably going to see the unusual circumstance (for this time of year) of it being warmer by the lake during onshore flow in the daytime next week.  

autumn is prime warmer by the lake season

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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Drought buster...

4062a8f82945bd70db1b438dfe925e09.jpg


.

Couldn't place that axis much better.  And it's over a period of time, which is better than a massive downpour that lasts an hour or two.

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The Euro has greatly backed off the scenario showing the energy cutting off well to the west of the region.  Models are now in pretty good agreement the energy will pinch off a bit over the central plains into the upper midwest.  That would keep the conveyor of rain aimed at the western subforum region through the end of the week.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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Pleasant day today with temps around 70. Quite the seasonal day.

Unfortunately, October weather for next week around here. I like Fall, but the abrupt change is harsh so early in the season.

Seems my forecast of a cooler first half of Sept, with widespread frost/freeze potential in the north areas, should pan out for most.

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9 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Pleasant day today with temps around 70. Quite the seasonal day.

Unfortunately, October weather for next week around here. I like Fall, but the abrupt change is harsh so early in the season.

Seems my forecast of a cooler first half of Sept, with widespread frost/freeze potential in the north areas, should pan out for most.

This guy is good

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Next weeks rains south/east of me should be cleared out by Friday(11th) into Saturday(12th) with maybe the eastern most areas of our region still seeing some Sat. At least my models are suggesting that, and gov models look ok with that too, today.

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57 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Next weeks rains south/east of me should be cleared out by Friday(11th) into Saturday(12th) with maybe the eastern most areas of our region still seeing some Sat. At least my models are suggesting that, and gov models look ok with that too, today.

How's Christmas look? :D

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On 9/3/2020 at 3:34 PM, Hoosier said:

Just your routine 95 to 35.

Not really familiar with Denver climo, but that amount of snow strikes me as unusually early even for them.

Earliest first measurable snow: 9/3/1961 (4.2”)

Average first measurable snow: 10/18

Warmest temp on the day before a measurable snow: 92F on 9/12/1993

 

 

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Was a cool day today. Maxed out at 73F this aft. Down to 60F now with a forecast low of 50F. Dew point was 42F earlier. 

The warmest temp. for the next 7 days is tomorrow with a high ~75F. Welcome Fall. 

 

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Is it me or did the GFS creep west for next week?

In any case, I have been expecting the best rains to focus to my west.  The thing about this setup is that the 1-2"+ area looks to be extremely wide.  1-2" wouldn't wipe out the dryness/drought but would put a nice dent.

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Models continue to shift the energy around a bit... more cut off and west one run, more progressive and east the next.  The widespread good rain totals across this area remain consistent, though.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Totals through the end of next week on the 12z Euro are 7-10" in parts of eastern Iowa.

Yeah, this run cuts off the upper low just in the right place and it crawls eastward just to the south of Iowa.  It could still easily pan out differently, like what the UK is showing (farther south and west), which would not drop nearly as much rain.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Wx not lacking in excitement in IA if this pans out.  Massive derecho and then this a month apart.

qpf_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.fb2c7d5514ab54926a1f70af9b4aecb7.png

CR the happening place to be for sure.  Hope it can continue this winter and deliver a good footer there (and surrounding areas too of course lol).

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