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moneypitmike

September 2020 Discussion

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Buyers beware. How many times you gonna get burned? If the whole region gets several inches mid week then ok .. that will be great . We’ll see . I know what I see happening. Hope wrong 

So the benchmark is everyone gets 3+ (several) inches of rain?  Seems like a high bar.

Some will may get 0.75” and some may get 2-3”.  

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Just now, powderfreak said:

So the benchmark is everyone gets 3+ (several) inches of rain?  Seems like a high bar.

Some will may get 0.75” and some may get 2-3”.  

I think the majority of us see well under .75. Some narrow zone( probably you again) sees a couple inches in training 

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think the majority of us see well under .75. Some narrow zone( probably you again) sees a couple inches in training 

So by the following weekend, most are under 0.75”.  Fair line to draw.  I’ll go with 1” or more for you by next Saturday.  One of these times it’ll work out lol.

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-2.8 on the month now after yesterday’s +7.  We are going to eat into that pretty good but I bet we can get a BN September for the first time in a while.

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I've seen worse foliage at the ski resort.

I think the thing that's making it really nice is that there's still green mixed in with some incredibly vibrant reds.  All colors represented on the hill sides right now.

120092321_10104327494857480_883492678399

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've seen worse foliage at the ski resort.

I think the thing that's making it really nice is that there's still green mixed in with some incredibly vibrant reds.  All colors represented on the hill sides right now.

120092321_10104327494857480_883492678399

I agree. Everyone wants peak, and I always the 10 days or so before peak to be the best. Once everything is orange/red you lose the stark contrast. 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lawns greening up just from dews?

Looks like my lawn is done after this last 3 day cold snap of 30-32F.  Shut er down.  Trees and plants definitely to a change this week to hibernation mode.

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2 hours ago, FlashFreeze said:

The most exciting thing that’s happened all summer on Myrtle beach, happened about 40 minutes ago, would this be from Beta?

Yep. Crazy to think my wife and I almost had our wedding less than a mile from where it touched down lol. Soundings pegged it pretty well.  Would've loved to see this in person. This probably doesn't belong in this thread, but FlashFreeze started it :twister:

SKEWT.png

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GFS only gives you a little over 1.5"

Suckerhole. Point is it’s wet for the region as a whole.

E49B69D4-431F-4E25-816D-48E6849A4844.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Suckerhole. Point is it’s wet for the region as a whole.

E49B69D4-431F-4E25-816D-48E6849A4844.jpeg

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree someone in the northeast gets a couple inches of rain. To me the best bet for that is NE Pa to VT and probably NJ/ NYC. Scooter has a rule about widespread qpf in warm months .Heavy qpf  ends up much less widespread than modeled. Convection robs moisture transport. I still believe many of us see under .75 for the week 

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 

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Might be a sneaky band in ctrl and ern areas Monday too. In any case, the next two weeks offer several chances it seems. Stein is dead after mid week.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is more of a colder season pattern with a deep trough to the west. I don't think that rule applies. 

It’s a warm , humid air mass. It’s a warm system. To me it does apply 

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