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yotaman

Hurricane Isaias

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Since it looks like this will be affecting much of the southeast coast, it deserves a thread of it's own. Discuss and post obs here.

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It will have to get a  heck ova  lot  better for  those  gusts to happen.

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nws blacksburg regardless of how strong or not the PRE is what to watch, anything after that will just be a bad scene in an already ridic wet year here in southside

 

 

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...

By Sunday our attention will turn toward Isaias approaching the
southeast coast of the US. The latest NHC track guidance is
slower and a bit further to the west. This looks to take the
storm over eastern/coastal North Carolina Monday night. As
Isaias approaches, the trailing cold front from a surface low
moving into the great lakes will get hung up and stall over the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region, setting the stage
for a PRE to become established as the front interacts with the
approaching tropical circulation around Isaias. Guidance
members are all singing variations on this same theme to give
growing confidence to the possibility of widespread rainfall
beginning by late Sunday. However it is common for a PRE to have
an embedded band of enhanced rainfall and there there remains a
good deal of uncertainty in exactly where this band of enhanced
rainfall will be. As it stands now it looks like widespread
rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches can be expected with 3.0
inch amounts along the Blue Ridge, and orographic affects in the
mountains will also enhance rainfall amounts. This amount of
rainfall will make flooding an increasing possibility with
significant flooding possible if the PRE lingers over the same
area for a prolonged period of time. Isaias accelerates away
from the area on Tuesday but the axis of the upper trof remains
to our west and will continue our chances for showers/storms.

After one last hot day o Sunday, expect a cooling trend with
the arrival of widespread clouds and rainfall. Highs on Monday
will be in the lower 80s east, mid/upper 70s west, and just a
bit warmer for Tuesday.

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Just now, ldub23 said:

hopefully  it stays  offshore so you wont  get flooded

we are ready, learned alot about how it floods here during michael. got tons of water, lanterns, batteries and canned goods. just bought a 5 day stay frozen cooler and waiting om city to issue sandbags monday to protect hvac and hotwater. i say bring it on. 

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RAH Afternoon Disco - wind and rain.

The previous discussion noted that the 01/00Z model 
guidance suggested a slowing of the system, a trend that has 
continued with the 01/12Z model guidance and the 11am NHC forecast. 
It is now appearing that rain is more likely to linger into Tuesday. 
In addition, storm total rainfall now appears to be in the range of 
2-5 inches, with the greatest amounts along and west of the I-95 
corridor. Strongest winds are still currently expected near and east 
of I-95, although the track of stronger winds has shifted slightly 
inland/to the west.

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The threat for a fairly significant inland impact with this system is increasing in central North Carolina. The entry region of the jet streak combined with the track of the system is set up well to expand impacts on the western side of the storm. This may also lead to a period of intensification on approach to landfall. HWRF and ukie cannot be completely ignored. Tropical storm watch was just issued for wake county and this setup really reminds me in a lot of ways  of the Matthew setup but the storm track is inland this time. I would expect some areas in central N.C. see gusty winds up to 50 mph which, combined with 2-4 in of rain may be enough for power outages. At a minimum this will saturate the eastern half of the state which has missed out on most of the recent rain and could set the table for more impactful rain events as we move into the meat of an active hurricane season. Long story short, I am anticipating an enhanced impact in central NC than we would usually expect for a system of this intensity 

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Well our forecasted winds have dropped considerably. They are now calling for max winds in the 25 to 35 mph range Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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Track has shifted ever so slightly East again. Also now explicitly forecasting a hurricane at landfall. The East shift may spare the immediate triangle area the worst of the damaging gusts. I think 50-60 mph would be high end with this track but likely 45-50 mph. Places further east say Goldsboro/Wilson could see gusts to 70. This could be a very disruptive system for central N.C. 

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Geez.....these are the wind clown maps and are probably overdone 10% or so....still lights out eastern half of NC.....

 

ICON

us_model-en-087-0_moddeu_2020080306_29_480_211.thumb.png.cc92801259636732f401d491441d8b3b.png

 

Euro 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020080300_36_8462_379.thumb.png.69847d962965854ad60c7f61dcf9e006.png

 

Ukie

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020080300_33_480_379.thumb.png.115cb8dd1bb28a78fce7d5c09db38004.png

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Appears I going to have a Grand Stand Front Row seating As this comes ashore.. going to be interesting..

(I reside on the ICW, See Sig)..

On the "dirty" side of things..

Onshore flow AND being a Full Moon Lunar Pedigee, High Tide(s) are at 8:30PM tomorrow night, Coastal Flooding is almost a givin here with what-ever winds/Rain & gust(s) are going to Occur.. 

My phone going crazy with Hurricane Warnings/Alerts etc.. 

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5 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Geez.....these are the wind clown maps and are probably overdone 10% or so....still lights out eastern half of NC.....

 

ICON

us_model-en-087-0_moddeu_2020080306_29_480_211.thumb.png.cc92801259636732f401d491441d8b3b.png

 

Euro 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020080300_36_8462_379.thumb.png.69847d962965854ad60c7f61dcf9e006.png

 

Ukie

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020080300_33_480_379.thumb.png.115cb8dd1bb28a78fce7d5c09db38004.png

I would say at least 30% or more overdone. No way we will have those type of wind gusts. 

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Can I send/ e-mail/ or Fax What I've received (just today) to you @buckeyefan1 ?  Grass Is getting on My nerves, I've got to cut-it almost every other Day, (If it's even dry).. Looks & feels like a Rice Paddy here.. OR, your SIG pic.. 

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It will be interesting to see what happens when the surge of tropical moisture in the Piedmont gets to the stalled front in the foothills.. We have over 2 inches of rain already and still pouring 

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12 minutes ago, knowledgeispwr said:

I've gotten 0.64" so far from this first rain band here in SW Winston-Salem. I got 0.21" early this morning from precip associated with the front.

.01" from the likely front-associated shower early this AM and then .03" from the noon-ish rain band in Cary.

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0.23" from that morning band. More showers knocking at the door. Mower guy just showed up. I think he's gonna get dripped on.

 

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First band came thru and dropped a staggering .08". Winds did gust up to probably 20 mph now back down to calm.

  • Haha 1

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Quite the hellacious lead band just came through here in Raleigh. Heavy rain and gusty winds.

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