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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Sorry, been out at family gatherings the past couple of days (distanced).  Yes,  I "think" this is going to be a multi episodic day in our NYC forum Sunday. 

8A-1P n NJ se NYS maybe reaching NYC around Noon.  I expect 1 to 3 SVR's and associated 1" 30 minute drenchers moving ne in  WAA with diffluent 1000-500mb thickness and decent winds aloft. Then ~1 PM Sunday afternoon...ne PA/nw NJ and SE NYS shuts off, with potential for strong convection shifting only into a few spots of CT and central NJ. Thereafter, the  trough approaching from the west , should activate a scattered-broken line of severe thunderstorms in remaining relatively high CAPE between 5P and midnight.  First in e PA 5P-8P then possibly training SVR's or FFW in the I78-I195 corridor 8P-midnight.  This based on a shot of drying midday moving into ne NJ/interior se NYS, then everything rejuicing late in the day-as it's recovered,  and I think primed for release with the trough approaching.  Need other input-guidance assessments but that's the way I see it. HI in PHL should rise to 100 tomorrow which tells me plenty of instability feeding in on the sw flow ahead of the trough. 

I think a PRE is likely Monday night from e PA into se NYS and w CT... i could be too far south on this and/or I could be totally mistaken that it occurs at aLL, but if occurs, 4-8" IN 6-12 HOURS and isolated svr  within a fairly narrow swath. Again input from the experts on PRE sought. 

Isaias as you all see and think per NHC/local offices and AMWX.  

I have seen model guidance over 10" in in a small part of our area by 12z Wednesday.  PRE"s and Tropical storm rains don't necessarily overlap... if they do, that's bad news (significant flooding in  the overlap area which might be w CT?).  The only other thing on Isaias... I'd like this to look more like a TS in its rain bands by the time it gets to NC. I think jet dynamics might straighten this storm out, which has not been very pretty so far- yet it has, as bad as it's looked, it's been fairly powerful.  kind of an oddball storm which may mean it's odd all the way up the coast?

In summary not much change from what I saw on the 00z/1 cycle.  I have to take this one event at a time.  Right now, let's see if SVR reports can be fairly widespread in our area by 1201AM Monday.  Will reassess Sunday morning ~7A.  835P/1

you're a f'n treasure @wdrag

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The outflow looks nice and sharp especially to the northeast.  It's a small storm with a nice compact CDO, there's some very robust convection happening.  It looks pretty organized right now.  I think this is a decent Category 1 tomorrow morning and might surprise us in its strengthening, a low-end Cat 2 is not out of the question if the shear can stay easy on it.  These small storms can be so unpredictable.

I wonder about the rainfall totals up here this week.  Even with baroclinic effects broadening the storm, this thing really is small.  I don't expect big rainfall totals too far from the center, that's for sure.

Quietly, this is becoming a massive tropical season.  August, September, could be a real adventure for the United States.

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The outflow looks nice and sharp especially to the northeast.  It's a small storm with a nice compact CDO, there's some very robust convection happening.  It looks pretty organized right now.  I think this is a decent Category 1 tomorrow morning and might surprise us in its strengthening, a low-end Cat 2 is not out of the question if the shear can stay easy on it.  These small storms can be so unpredictable.

I wonder about the rainfall totals up here this week.  Even with baroclinic effects broadening the storm, this thing really is small.  I don't expect big rainfall totals too far from the center, that's for sure.

Quietly, this is becoming a massive tropical season.  August, September, could be a real adventure for the United States.

It’s back to a naked swirl, completely decoupled and definitely not a hurricane

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6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The outflow looks nice and sharp especially to the northeast.  It's a small storm with a nice compact CDO, there's some very robust convection happening.  It looks pretty organized right now.  I think this is a decent Category 1 tomorrow morning and might surprise us in its strengthening, a low-end Cat 2 is not out of the question if the shear can stay easy on it.  These small storms can be so unpredictable.

I wonder about the rainfall totals up here this week.  Even with baroclinic effects broadening the storm, this thing really is small.  I don't expect big rainfall totals too far from the center, that's for sure.

Quietly, this is becoming a massive tropical season.  August, September, could be a real adventure for the United States.

Every model has this gaining strength 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s back to a naked swirl, completely decoupled and definitely not a hurricane

Can you take a picture of something to show me?

I swear I am looking at GOES EAST shots thinking this thing looks decent and your post is throwing me for a loop.

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Can you take a picture of something to show me?

I swear I am looking at GOES EAST shots thinking this thing looks decent and your post is throwing me for a loop.

It does look beter

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It does look beter

I'm just seriously tripped out by the idea I'm too stupid to find a naked swirl on GOES EAST.  I mean people joke about being triggered but I just spent 10 minutes looking at screens trying to find what he's talking about, and because I can't find it I feel even dumber.

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4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I'm just seriously tripped out by the idea I'm too stupid to find a naked swirl on GOES EAST.  I mean people joke about being triggered but I just spent 10 minutes looking at screens trying to find what he's talking about, and because I can't find it I feel even dumber.

Some people love to troll

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Some people love to troll

He's not a troll though and I'm not a weenie, I'm trying to learn and contribute... was thinking it looked a fair bit stronger and more organized.  I'll call a spade a spade, I said it was looking dishevled yesterday.

I hate being wrong here, there's so many good meteorologists and it's so easy for an amateur like myself to make themselves look stupid.  So if I said something stupid I want to learn from it.  That's all.

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It looks like most of the models place the heaviest rain to our west but that could put us in a better position for severe weather in the NYC metro. We should get a much better idea today on how things will set up over the next few days. 

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Areas to the east of the track could see wind gusts to 60 mph or greater if these forecast soundings are correct. Models all have an intense southerly LLJ sweeping across Long Island. With SSTs near 80° and no inversion, a large portion of the LLJ could mix down. Models have a 5SD LLJ event for early August.

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1005     1  26.4  23.0  82  3.4  23.9 164  45 299.1 302.4 296.9 351.3 17.89
  1 1000    44  26.1  22.1  79  4.0  23.2 166  52 299.2 302.3 296.4 348.8 17.00
  2  950   494  22.2  19.9  87  2.3  20.6 170  66 299.7 302.5 295.6 345.3 15.60
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1005     7  25.8  21.4  77  4.4  22.7 175  41 298.5 301.5 295.7 345.6 16.18
  1 1000    51  25.9  20.5  72  5.4  22.1 177  49 299.0 301.8 295.3 343.9 15.38
  2  950   501  22.3  18.4  79  3.9  19.6 184  68 299.8 302.4 294.6 341.3 14.19


 

27A6C4CD-3893-42E0-A287-F7237A54C51C.thumb.png.12aa5b0d77be6a9d0999500553904f3a.png


4534C555-E337-423D-BE32-5DA9C04E4424.gif.bf2e360e2df7f59b9b1e23064c7aabb5.gif

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Good Sunday morning everyone in our NYC forum,  

Please follow NHC, SPC, WPC, and local office discussion statements/watches/warnings.  Plenty coming for our forum area. Whether they'll be significant for more than half our region, I don't know,  but some spots will probably be bruised with SVR-Power outages, FF-brief detours the next 3 days. 

Not sure if anyone has observed what happened in se PA overnight. Near Reading and now approaching Allentown PA, widespread 2-4" rainfall... won't be surprised at 5"... and a SVR in progress at 635A. Not too much guidance was hinting at that but the WAA is the driver and will continue to be a player in todays weather.

Today: RGEM/HRDPS best fit to what is going on now and what sort of expect in the future. SVR/FFW (1-3 issuance of each) anticipated between 8A-1P central/NNJ, se NYS arriving NYC near Noon.  The risk probably shuts off for 3 hours early this afternoon in nw NJ/se NYC, but shifts across CT/LI this afternoon, especially CT.  Meanwhile, am concerned NAM/HRRR are so paltry on redevelopment in e PA/w NJ 4-8P with weak front approaching from the west, into high CAPE air of near 3000J (HI near 100 in PHL) and pretty strong winds fields aloft for this time of year.  IT IS POSSIBLE very little will redevelop late today, but I think unlikely. Had to take into account all dry modeling, but think sct SVR develop e PA 4P-6P, cross NJ/se NYS/CT 6P-11P.  NYC/LI am less certain but risk.   No promises on afternoon-evening and am less confident than yesterday, due to modeling, and so have to rely on pattern recognition.  Rainfall under a few strong storms: 1" in 30 minutes but these are very narrow paths.  Apparently biggest threat for heavy rainfall is between now and 1PM in NJ/NYC, se NYS.  One additional note: Wind fields are quite strong and supercells not out of the question with a TOR possible somewhere in the forum. 

Monday after 4PM: refire convection in NJ and e PA and setting up for some sort of banded 4-8" rainfall Monday night 7P-Tuesday morning 7A. My guess is this band  will be somewhere in e PA across extreme nw nw NJ into eastern NYS or w CT.  For now my guesstimate is DXR-POU-across High Point NJ to near RDG??  It's not a classic PRE but am very sure there will be some sort of precursor event due to the nose of the 850MB jet favoring strong moisture transport northward into some sort of weak boundary/or mountainous driven lift zone. PWATS back up to 2", plenty of CAPE and winds might favor an embedded SVR, but I think the primary concern, wherever this set's up, is FF.  

Tuesday afternoon-evening: Isaias remains and associated heavy rainfall left of track and Gust 50kt eastern LI, maybe even all of CT.

Storm totals between today-12z Wednesday... am thinking we see a few 7+ but I could be a little overdone, especially if banding doesn't develop as anticipated for Monday night, and/or Isaias track west of NJ.  

Added clustered 00z/2 guidance tracks for Isaias. 709A/2

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-02 at 6.05.35 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-02 at 6.06.23 AM.png

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6 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I'm just seriously tripped out by the idea I'm too stupid to find a naked swirl on GOES EAST.  I mean people joke about being triggered but I just spent 10 minutes looking at screens trying to find what he's talking about, and because I can't find it I feel even dumber.

It was clear from the radar, look at circulation and then the satellite, The shear has this very tilted as you go up in height the MLC doesn’t look half bad with deep convection, the llc remains naked with little weather to its west

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We had some surprisingly big long period ground swell at Jones beach yesterday. It led to some rescues and the eventual closing of the water due to a severe injury in the shore break.
The remarkable thing was, this swell was created when there was just a large trough open wave. Tropical storm force winds extended out 405 miles and shows the power of fetch in swell generation.  
We have seen major beach washovers 

 

 

8513B365-002E-40ED-A1B0-BB6752619A6B.jpeg

1F262186-CC20-463A-BBE2-D57F84D12C6C.jpeg

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32 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We had some surprisingly big long period ground swell at Jones beach yesterday. It led to some rescues and the eventual closing of the water due to a severe injury in the shore break.
The remarkable thing was, this swell was created when there was just a large trough open wave. Tropical storm force winds extended out 405 miles and shows the power of fetch in swell generation.  
We have seen major beach washovers 

 

 

8513B365-002E-40ED-A1B0-BB6752619A6B.jpeg

1F262186-CC20-463A-BBE2-D57F84D12C6C.jpeg

The shore break at Robert Moses was pretty intense also but it was relatively easily managed. 

So far this morning I've had less than 1 minute of very light drizzle. Since about 7:30 I can see the rain to my north but I'm dry. I have no need for severe but an inch of rain would be nice.

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Looks like Long Island is missing the precip this morning, all looks to be well north and west. Hopefully before the day is thru something will pop up but I have my doubts. May have to wait for the tropical storm for any decent rain.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Many 4-6" amounts near Kutztown PA early today. Here's a snapshot. 

 

0.20 here in Wantage NJ since RB around 545A. 

Screen Shot 2020-08-02 at 8.21.50 AM.png

Through 10 am, Reading had received 5.89” rain. That broke the daily record of 2.62” from 1973 and the monthly record of 4.52”, which was set on August 22, 1888. It is also Reading’s 4th highest daily rainfall on record. The record is 6.73”, which was set on October 4, 1869.

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Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 10 am, Reading had received 5.89” rain. That broke the daily record of 2.62” from 1973 and the monthly record of 4.52”, which was set on August 22, 1888. It is also Reading’s 4th highest daily rainfall on record. The record is 6.73”, which was set on October 4, 1869.

Thanks much Don!  Potent where it coalesces. Excellent info.  Walt

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