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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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No change in thinking of PRE Monday niight-early Tue and then the 6 hour slug of R++ Tue afternoon/eve with G 50kt e LI. 

Is anyone in NWS writing about PRE potential?  Haven't had time to check.  I may be in error on a PRE convergent area as discussed this morning. ???

Follow SPC/NHC/WPC and local NWS office for up to date details-discussions., 

Offline til 9PM ish. 516P/2

 

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OKX mentioned PRE in their AFD this afternoon 

Airmass will be slightly drier Monday with dewpoints getting
more into the 60s before increasing Monday night again.
Dewpoints Monday night will return to upper 60s to lower 70s for
much of the region. Layer precipitable waters increase again
towards 2 inches late Monday night. Heavy rain will be possible
at times late Monday night for locations north and west of NYC
with potential
Airmass will be slightly drier Monday with dewpoints getting
more into the 60s before increasing Monday night again.
Dewpoints Monday night will return to upper 60s to lower 70s for
much of the region. Layer precipitable waters increase again
towards 2 inches late Monday night. Heavy rain will be possible
at times late Monday night for locations north and west of NYC
with potential predecessor rainfall event (PRE). Tropical
moisture will be moving in with that weak lingering frontal
boundary within the region.
Tropical
moisture will be moving in with that weak lingering frontal
boundary within the region.

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Thanks for the OKX PRE!!  Good... this if it happens can be as big in a narrow 40 mile wide swath thats 100 mi or longer ,  as Isaias...IF it occurs.  Not classic but potential. You saw the 4-7" reports near RDG this morning...  suspect same but longer-wider and a bit different axis location than that of this morning. 

Big storm seems to be going w of ABE now..digital storm tops near 55K. Have less than 2 hours to get it out of PA and extreme nw NJ and Orange County before drying overwhelms (I think). 

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 EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Coney Island
    - Bay Ridge
    - Flatbush

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until early Wednesday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
          underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: Tuesday afternoon until early Wednesday
          morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for
          storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable
          areas.
        - ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to
          leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
          immediate shorelines and in low lying spots, or in areas
          farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
        - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become
          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
          in places where surge water covers the road.
        - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
          mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent
          rip currents.
        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
          boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
          moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
          currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - https://www1.nyc.gov/site/em/ready/coastal-storms-hurricanes.page
    - http://maps.nyc.gov/hurricane
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

 

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Quick question....if you were to try to get to the beaches (Atlantic/Long Beach) on Tuesday to see the storm at its max, including high tides, what time of day would be best? Thanks in advance

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

When was the last time 2 tropical  storms hit NYC in one summer ?

I know 1960 had two that came up the coast...not sure if there have been more than one since...

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45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I know 1960 had two that came up the coast...not sure if there have been more than one since...

1955 Connie and Diane within about a week. Caused some of the worst flooding ever seen in parts of the northeast, especially Ct.

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32 minutes ago, lee59 said:

1955 Connie and Diane within about a week. Caused some of the worst flooding ever seen in parts of the northeast, especially Ct.

1954 had Carol, Edna nd Hazel...five in two years...1893 and 1894 had a few each...

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46 minutes ago, lee59 said:

1955 Connie and Diane within about a week. Caused some of the worst flooding ever seen in parts of the northeast, especially Ct.

The Delaware and Lehigh Valleys and the Poconos got slammed as well. Up to 20" of rain in parts of NEPA with Diane. The river flooding was historic but the flash flooding on the smaller tributaries was even worse.

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1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

The Delaware and Lehigh Valleys and the Poconos got slammed as well. Up to 20" of rain in parts of NEPA with Diane. The river flooding was historic but the flash flooding on the smaller tributaries was even worse.

Quite the summer with an incredibly hot and dry July and early August (with an impressive number of 95 degree days) followed by historically heavy rainfall.

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7 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

What are we looking at worst case scenario if it stays East for NYC area . 

Mainly the axis of heaviest rain and thus flooding shifting further east and overspreading most of the metro area. Winds would have less of an impact, save for eastern LI.

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Just now, BlizzardNYC said:

Hasn’t the storm been running east of it’s forecast track?

Yes

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The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.

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7 minutes ago, larrye said:

The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.

Euro and Ukie are similar 

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EURO hasn't been great with this storm, but it's much more east now than it used to be. So thinking it might skirt the Carolinas and head right up the coast alla Gloria. 

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42 minutes ago, larrye said:

Yep, and the 00z GFS keeps it west of NYC.

It did shift slightly east with the heavy precip

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If the further west track on some of the models is correct then that would give areas in the immediate metro area less rainfall but put those areas in a better position for higher winds and maybe some severe weather including a few tornadoes. We will have to see how the PRE sets up later tomorrow and tomorrow night but I suspect that may be mostly north and west of the metro area. I would still expect 2-4" of rainfall in and around the city (especially the city on west) with locally higher amounts. Lets see how things develop.

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