Winter 2020-21 Discussion

[Stormfly]

You're right, replace warm with snow drought and it would be correct. ;-)

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Might want to check those stats on Jan 2010. It was nearly 3 degrees below normal here. Not too snowy until the end though.

Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol.

[WxUSAF]

Meanwhile, Boston suburbs are starting winter with a solid over performer.

[MountainGeek]

Going straight for the kill shot I see.......not even giving @WxWatcher007 a chance to have fun baiting the poor weenies for a couple of months before they succumb to the final plunge of despair. 

[Eskimo Joe]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Meanwhile, Boston suburbs are starting winter with a solid over performer.

BOS observer near the water is slant sticking. Can we have this person train the DCA observer since they apparently know how to measure properly near water?  

 

[DTWXRISK]

I haven't been  through  the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter.

 it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina  whether it's moderate or strong …  only reaches that intensity for short interval of time  -  DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this  is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake

 The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific  along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps   on  weatherbell and  weathermodels   sites  along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina  with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America.

 Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. 
 

[WxUSAF]

Thanks for checking in DT. 
 

I’m not sure about the Nina intensity, but I do agree that the very warm NPAC coupled with the Nina is pretty unusual and may throw a wrench in things.

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

I haven't been  through  the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter.

 it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina  whether it's moderate or strong …  only reaches that intensity for short interval of time  -  DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this  is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake

 The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific  along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps   on  weatherbell and  weathermodels   sites  along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina  with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America.

 Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. 
 

Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Hey guys. I have a question for who may can answer it. Ben noll posts alot on Twitter and said tonight he believes the mjo should focus  moreso in the Indian Ocean instead of the maritime continent for winter. If that happens, would that be better for a colder outcome than normally would happen in a laniña? 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. 

[CAPE]

11 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hey guys. I have a question for who may can answer it. Ben noll posts alot on Twitter and said tonight he believes the mjo should focus  moreso in the Indian Ocean instead of the maritime continent for winter. If that happens, would that be better for a colder outcome than normally would happen in a laniña? 

In theory, without considering other factors, it would be "better". We really want the forcing to be a bit further west/further east though.

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. 

Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see 

[poolz1]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Exactly,  fast Pac flow has been setting records for past couple years in regards to super fast jet stream and breaking down + PNA attempts.  

Agreed.  I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. 

At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region.  If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB.  As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter?

Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular! 

[frd]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Agreed.  I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. 

At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region.  If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB.  As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter?

Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular! 

I did read from a couple of sources that at least for the time being the likelyhood of the trop and stat pv linking is low. Also some overall lack of structure.  AO still progged to decline after November 6 th. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see 

The NAO is also trending worse.  This time of year that's really bad for us.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Agreed.  I dont see how we avoid significant bouts of a very unfavorable pac.... We'll be constantly teased with models showing an eastward progression of the MJO and therefore a better looking long range signal in the Pac. 

At least in this weenie mind, trying to find a silver lining, the 2 main features that seem to stick around on ensembles are the low heights west of the Aleutians and the higher heights in the Scan region.  If we can maintain the features somewhat, maybe we can periodically offset what will be occurring in the Pac. Keeping the PV in check and giving us bouts of HLB.  As the MJO tries to push into more fav areas, dies and then reemerges over unfavorable areas....these occurrences may be our windows of opportunity this winter?

Or, maybe nothing works out as planned (like last year) and we end up with these looks on the regular! 

 

Been tracking this for awhile on the extended GEFS and EPS weeklies for mid to late Nov. Good to see it showing up on recent op and ens runs now that they are in range.

The look on the12z run today would probably suppress the storm track so far south we would miss all the cold rain.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

On 10/30/2020 at 4:41 PM, DTWXRISK said:

I haven't been  through  the entire thread in this group or in the general forums but I am increasingly bothered by the amount of groupthink regarding the winter.

 it seems the data is overwhelming that the La Nina  whether it's moderate or strong …  only reaches that intensity for short interval of time  -  DEC - and that the La Nina is going to significantly weaken in the second half of the winter. Again I do not know if others have mentioned this but seems to me that this  is being overlooked buy a lot of folks and I think this is a huge mistake

 The second issue has to do with the amount of incredibly warm water that is piled up in the Eastern Pacific  along the immediate west coast of Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. I have looked on the SST maps   on  weatherbell and  weathermodels   sites  along with other sources and so far I have yet to see a La Nina  with that much warm water piled up with that sort of intensity along the west coast of North America.

 Maybe somebody else has found something that matches it but so far I haven't seen anything. So I am concerned that these the two things are being overlooked by a lot of people. 
 

I’m not sure how much the former factor will help. There is often a lag effect between enso and pattern and even a weak to moderate Nina isn’t exactly great snow climo in our area.  But I am very much in agreement on the latter. The pacific SST is really in contradiction between the enso regions and PDO regions. There aren’t very many good analogs to this configuration at all. I’m still being pessimistic but that’s probably just me not wanting to set myself up for a disappointment.  I could see a scenario where this year does not behave like a typical Nina. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not sure how much the former factor will help. There is often a lag effect between enso and pattern and even a weak to moderate Nina isn’t exactly great snow climo in our area.  But I am very much in agreement on the latter. The pacific SST is really in contradiction between the enso regions and PDO regions. There aren’t very many good analogs to this configuration at all. I’m still being pessimistic but that’s probably just me not wanting to set myself up for a disappointment.  I could see a scenario where this year does not behave like a typical Nina. 

Man, after stuff not working the way it does...it would be nice to have a GOOD "this didn't behave the way it should have" happen...shoot, stupid weak nino of 2018-19 didn't behave the way we it should have, so any good fluke would balance it out! 

[MDstorm]

As October comes to a close, it’s interesting that the temperature profile across the US For October 2020 did not match the average profile for October La Ninas over the last 10-15 years.  Throw into the mix that long range climate outlooks from the JAMSTEC and Cansips crapped the bed for the October temperature forecast (made in Sept) and maybe this upcoming winter won’t be as predictably bad as many are expecting. 

[Scraff]

I’d be ok with Cosgroves thoughts....

 

MONTHLY FORECASTS

 

NOVEMBER

 

Most of the analog years present a fairly standard +PNA signature with a warm West vs. cool Central, East alignment. But a recurrent issue is that all model guidance is solidly warmer than normal over most of North America. Given that the comparison test looks almost exactly like the same September 1 - October 16 of this year, I kept the temperature forecast very close to the twelve-year mean.

 

If shortwave injections into the Mid-Continent mean trough are as strong as what is shown now over the northern Pacific Ocean, potential for high wind events will be high from the Rocky Mountains into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes in November.

    

DECEMBER

 

A more difficult forecast, since there is a prominent warm-up across the Old South and Mid-Atlantic regions which may not be viable. Note the positive height anomaly in the -NAO position (Baffin Island and Greenland) which in many cases could be construed as a block that triggers southward deviation of the jet stream. That said, the numerical model guidance is very aggressive in presenting a Southeast ridge. That feature is normally linked to very warm conditions east of the Rocky Mountains. The gradient set-up between recurrent storms over MT and WY vs. the ridging implies repeated high surface wind potential from the Great Plains and Texas into the Corn Belt.

 

Caveat: Should the high-latitude anticyclone be the stronger of the two ridges, temperatures will be much colder across the Midwest and Northeast than what is shown here.

    

JANUARY

 

A much colder outlook than the previous attempt. The presence of ridging in the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO positions normally favors relocation of the cA vortex at 500MB into Ontario and James Bay. Indeed, with the core negative height anomaly aloft centered roughly over MN and W ON cold pooling will probably relocate to between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. The surface storm track may stay inland over the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain, so the major cities may have cases of rain and not snow. All things considered, there will likely be some very wintry moments in the Midwest and Great Lakes. The western states seem warmer and drier than normal outside of a few frontal passages along the Pacific Coast.

 

Caveat: It would not take much, with the widespread ridging at higher latitudes, to turn the Eastern Seaboard into a winter wonderland as we start 2021.

    

FEBRUARY

 

Similar in many ways to the January upper air pattern, but with more extensive cyclonic curvature and cold air through the eastern two-thirds of the nation. If there is going to be a major snowstorm along the East Coast, it probably will be in February. Note the stability of the blocking ridge complex above the Arctic Circle.

 

Caveats: If ridging builds into British Columbia, we could see cases of severe cold and more frequent frozen precipitation from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Conversely, if the blocking signature is weaker, there may be some merit in the very warm outlooks posted by the CFS and ECMWF series.

    

MARCH

 

Yet another example of a back-ended winter forecast. Note that there is very little change in high-latitude ridge position and strength. In theory, if this forecast verifies, abundant snow in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England could help to maintain substantial cold to the right of the Continental Divide.

 

Caveats: The very warm numerical models continue to concern me, and are a reason that I moderated temperatures somewhat from the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Seaboard.

 

Curiously, all analog and modeled guidance suggests a turn to much warmer weather nationally as we enter April. But March should be cold.

 

SUMMARY     

 

Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere does not look like anything special now. But given time, and ridging spaced about the North Pole and Arctic Circle, the strong polar westerlies acting in concert with a La Nina signal should produce vigorous storms in the middle latitudes. The dryness in the middle of the continent could limit snow in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains. But if the analog predictions verify for the winter months, there will be a great deal of snow in the Great Lakes and Appalachia. The best odds on snow impacts along the Interstate 95 corridor appear to be for February and March. The two most active storm track threats: Alberta Clippers and "Miller B" Hatteras Lows (one of which could be a memorable winter storm). 

    

 A colder winter, overall, than the five most recent DJFM periods.

[Jebman]

TL;DR

The Mid Atlantic is gonna get absolutely SHELLACKED by torrential winter snows and frigid Vodka Cold, especially from late Jan 2021, thru early April 2021.

[CAPE]

The November edition of the CanSIPS is out. Pretty meh overall, but not as bad as last month. Typical boilerplate Nina look with little to no help in the AO/NAO domain. December and March have the "better" h5 looks. Positive temp anomalies throughout.

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The November edition of the CanSIPS is out. Pretty meh overall, but not as bad as last month. Typical boilerplate Nina look with little to no help in the AO/NAO domain. December and March have the "better" h5 looks. Positive temp anomalies throughout.

It was noted that the shoulder months of the winter might have the best potential due to the weaker state of the polar vortex

[JakkelWx]

Cosgrove using 2009-10 as an analog for this winter which is a moderate la nina 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Cosgrove using 2009-10 as an analog for this winter which is a moderate la nina 

09-10 has to be the most abused analog in the history if winter forecasting, smh This has gotten absurd!

[JakkelWx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

09-10 has to be the most abused analog in the history if winter forecasting, smh This has gotten absurd!

People don't realize how rare 2009-10 is. There's a higher chance of 2020 ending than 2009-10 happening again.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

People don't realize how rare 2009-10 is. There's a higher chance of 2020 ending than 2009-10 happening again.

Well , 2020 ending has a probability of 1, so I’d have to agree.

[nw baltimore wx]

35 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Cosgrove using 2009-10 as an analog for this winter which is a moderate la nina 

 

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

09-10 has to be the most abused analog in the history if winter forecasting, smh This has gotten absurd!

It’s one of 10 winters he used (and two others are emphasized and weighted heavier), and it’s not like he’s predicting 5 feet of snow. Personally, of his analog years, I’ll take a February ‘79 repeat and be very happy.

[uncle W]

I don't like mixing analogs that are on the opposite side of the spectrum...2007-08  can't be mentioned in the same sentence with 1995-96...thats just me...I see Larry has some big years on that list...for the record I think the winter won't be like either of them years...I think snowfall will be near average along with temperatures...give me 59-60 and I'll be happy...

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well , 2020 ending has a probability of 1, so I’d have to agree.

It just seems endless.