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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

160mph gusts at Galveston island....yikes. Boivar peninsula 116mph....they were just leveled by Harvey 3 years ago.

Appears to me that unfortunately Laura will be taking full advantage of the cleared out Gulf thanks to Marcos dissipation. Shear has relaxed and with assist from Marco a ridge is rebuilding forcing a further west track. Laura could be at max intensity as it approaches the coast as well. Dangerous setup 

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Appears to me that unfortunately Laura will be taking full advantage of the cleared out Gulf thanks to Marcos dissipation. Shear has relaxed and with assist from Marco a ridge is rebuilding forcing a further west track. Laura could be at max intensity as it approaches the coast as well. Dangerous setup 

I was pretty conservative on first call because I'm not in the habit or forecasting 160mph gusts and 3 feet of snow at 4 days lead time, but if you read the blog, I implied exactly what you are referring to. You are spot on in that the timing of Laura's evolution is going to leave little time for modulation via internal processes (ERC), which may be the coast's only hope under these circumstances. Texas would likely have been better off had Laura blown up near the leewards and 1) Began ERC 2) Been a mature, coupled system upon traversing of Hispaniola and Cuba, which would have rendered it more prone to disruption.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It still has a lot of housekeeping before its off to the races...cat 4 is def. not a forgone conclusion.

My initial response was to post about filling up cars and home heating oil tanks given refineries but they actually dropped after Harvey if I remember correctly. 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are exactly right, though....that is the reason you don't go James and forecast a cat 4 or 5 at extended leads...sooooo much has to go "right" ...in a season where not much has, nonetheless...

You can see what can go wrong as with Marco.. you really need perfect conditions for a CAT4/5, I think cat 3 is very likely. folks think Gulf and instant cat5

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12 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

You can see what can go wrong as with Marco.. you really need perfect conditions for a CAT4/5, I think cat 3 is very likely. folks think Gulf and instant cat5

Marco was never expected to go "right"....it always looked to kiss hurricane strength and no more. On Friday, I expected a similar fate for Laura, maybe a bit better, but over the weekend it appeared likely that shear would abate. We need to see if that goes according to plan. Knowing this year, it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't, or it did and we still peaked at 105mph.

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

GFS close up looks like Holly beach would be a good spot.. if it made landfall according to this run, it's on the west side so maybe not great for surge.. not much east but swamps

 

 

Yea, SW LA is another boring landfall spot...as is the border area where Rita hit. The western Gulf coast has lots of population holes, unlike the eastern side.

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