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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's an interesting small whirl some 400 miles E of Cape Canaveral FL that's been spinning for a three days there...it's presently obscured by its own CB flare-up ...but it's interesting -

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I noticed that little guy this morning. Nice wave coming off Africa as well.

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11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I noticed that little guy this morning. Nice wave coming off Africa as well.

yeah..the late day loopage out there seems that regions acquired some cylonic tendency in general, too -

Also, it seems to me that NHC has a kind of quasi- reliance on the models too, for designating invests.  I mean they should... otherwise, what's the technology for - but it does seem that if there isn't at least some ensemble support they tend to ignore these things... That, out there and this little whirl that actually, the GGEM from 12z does bear some semblance of a reflection of it now in the surface pressure pattern albeit weak.   The one mid way did have a few runs a while back and go figure -

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Gfs Loop last 8 runs has consistently shown 3-4 canes go south of Baja. 

Lets see if our SAL keeps a lid on anything major forming when things are suppose to become active again post August 20 in Atlantic 

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I don’t believe SAL is going to keep a lid on much longer. I’d argue it hasn’t done much this season to keep things in check, at least in terms of TC genesis—as we just had a historically active July. SAL will always be around as we see large and vigorous waves roll off Africa, but the large and vigorous waves are themselves evidence of a favorable environment. 

As the MJO/CCKW rolls through the basin you will see favorable rising motion for convection and a decline in shear. That combined with a +++favorable SST/TCHP environment and continued strong AEWs should blow things up late August through at least the climatological peak in September. Steering pattern TBD. 

Even if SAL manages to cap things in the eastern and central Atlantic, if shear is low basin wide, some of these waves would merely keep spinning until they reach a more favorable environment in the western Atlantic or worse, western Caribbean. 

I’m not saying everything coming off Africa will develop of course, and not everything will become an Irma or Maria, but I’m as bullish as you can get on an active peak. It’s hard to look at the overall environment and coming pattern and think anything but the basin is primed for another extraordinary period of activity.

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just going to leave this here .. Very sad 60k followers.. 

4044C50F-3FB7-493E-902E-4714C3ECB534.jpeg

My coworkers swear by this person and treat the posts like the weather gospel. After a heated exchange with our science teacher of all people, I just walk away now and let them drink the Koolaid.

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10 hours ago, Nikoss427 said:

My coworkers swear by this person and treat the posts like the weather gospel. After a heated exchange with our science teacher of all people, I just walk away now and let them drink the Koolaid.

I want to know more about these "disturbing movements of planets"    :lol:

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