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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ryan gave you his forecast. I don't know what you are trying to say.

That was yesterday’s first guess. It’s different now lol . Verification will be fun. That’s for sure 

 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was yesterday’s first guess. It’s different now lol . Verification will be fun. That’s for sure 

 

That was this morning..lol. But yeah, I think some 60+ potential is there.

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection. 

Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was this morning..lol. But yeah, I think some 60+ potential is there.

I’m going to just sit back and watch as things unfold . No sense going back and forth. I like my forecasts of 50-60 statewide with higher in any severe. I’ll just leave it there and that’ll do it 

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Lmao..every storm we go through this with DIT, whether it a Nor Easter or major cold front, Sou Easter etc etc, and the forecast winds almost always disappoint.   There aren’t enough Buns for him today.  
 

He will most likely be disappointed yet again when the 3 hour window of wind flops/or fails to reach impressive potential, as is the case almost all the time in SNE away from the shore,  but time will tell. 
 

 

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface.

The SSE wind direction can get quite damaging, I'm already dealing with a couple of the lakes regions Marina concerns as there docks face those directions and have advised them to take necessary action to protect the boats that are tied up at least on the ends of them and move them closer in where they won't be exposed, They can handle gust in the 30's but that's at there limit.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmao..every storm we go through this with DIT, whether it a Nor Easter or major cold front, Sou Easter etc etc, and the forecast winds almost always disappoint.   There aren’t enough Buns for him today.  
 

He will most likely be disappointed yet again when the 3 hour window of wind flops/or fails to reach impressive potential, as is the case almost all the time in SNE away from the shore,  but time will tell. 
 

 

It does feel like only 1 in every 5 wind storms delivers the goods. Most seem to come in 10-20% under modeling.

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Watches upgraded to Warnings for interior SNE.

Quote
Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA  AL092020
1111 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MAZ014-032315-
/O.NEW.KBOX.TR.W.1009.200803T1511Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southeast Middlesex MA-
1111 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

*edit to include more text*

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I don't recall the named storm but it was a good 5-7 years ago now that brought some solid winds to SE MA.  Brought down some tress in the neighborhood.  This looks nothing like that threat.

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EC 100m AGL wind. If we can warm sector up here it could be interesting for a couple hours. It's a long shot. Toss the 80mph winds, but it could get gusty.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020080300_54_476_334.png

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't recall the named storm but it was a good 5-7 years ago now that brought some solid winds to SE MA.  Brought down some tress in the neighborhood.  This looks nothing like that threat.

Was it Irene?

wait, nvm. That was in 2011.

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9 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

It does feel like only 1 in every 5 wind storms delivers the goods. Most seem to come in 10-20% under modeling.

Probably more like 30-40% under in most cases.  Most of all the wind maps by models are usually always way off in actuality it seems.  
 

Maybe this will be different? But I wouldn’t be getting my hopes up.  Take the under on wind in most all the cases around here. 

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9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't recall the named storm but it was a good 5-7 years ago now that brought some solid winds to SE MA.  Brought down some tress in the neighborhood.  This looks nothing like that threat.

TS Irene

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11 am NHC Discussion mentions baro enhancement keeping the storm from weakening too fast, even though the track actually shifted a tad west and is now basically entirely inland after landfall

Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to 
decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more 
southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias' 
forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in 
less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain 
hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the 
intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After 
landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to 
interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will 
be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic 
forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very 
strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a 
result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the 
standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone 
is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada 
in 3-4 days.

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2 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning?

TS warning requires 3 straight hours of vis reduced to 1/4 mile because of dews. 

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3 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning?

Tropical storm Warning/winds goes from 39-74 mph I believe.
 

High wind warning goes from 58 mph.  I could be wrong so feel free to correct.  

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44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The SSE wind direction can get quite damaging, I'm already dealing with a couple of the lakes regions Marina concerns as there docks face those directions and have advised them to take necessary action to protect the boats that are tied up at least on the ends of them and move them closer in where they won't be exposed, They can handle gust in the 30's but that's at there limit.

naples marina full. don't think jimmy has any room to move boats in. Glad mine is pretty close to the shore.

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50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Couple of things. SSTs are very warm, dews are moist. Any convective elements will be gusty above 50. Hopefully high winds stays to my west and south. Most of my damage storms though feature an anomalous southern jet with SE winds at the surface.

Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around

Well

we’ll see later tomorrow if that is indeed true/and if it plays out that way? 

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In terms of Tropical Storms in my lifetime (31 years) Floyd and Bertha were the only ones I remember by name. Floyd was interesting and got us two days out of school. Bertha because of the first tornado warnings in RI I remember. This one could be interesting but definitely not the rain totals of Floyd.

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12 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

What's the difference between Tropical Storm Warning and High Wind Warning?

High Wind Warning

A High Wind Warning is issued when the following conditions are expected:

1) sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for one hour or more

OR

2) wind gusts of 58 mph or higher for any duration.

 

 

Tropical Storm Warning

A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when sustained winds of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph) or higher associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in 36 hours or less. These winds may be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding, and/or river flooding.

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

naples marina full. don't think jimmy has any room to move boats in. Glad mine is pretty close to the shore.

Just got off the phone with Jimmy as i was typing lol, Your tucked in over there and pretty protected being on the C-D dock, I'd be more concerned if i had ones out on the ends of his new docks over by Jim Builds field which face SSE, He's going to pull 20 boats off the end and put them in the field.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well

we’ll see later tomorrow if that is indeed true/and if it plays out that way? 

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K NAM is rather wild on BUFKIT. Mostly from mixing. Might actually not want rain if you want to mix. 

It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further

image.png.0bfd56960736f451ba87c944e63c5567.png

image.png.a597c2631ee0a6ad0e861608a4e4e9d1.png

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