General Tropical Discussion - 2020

[Solak]

 

[Modfan2]

7 hours ago, Solak said:

 

Not a lot of warm water to work with north of the Bahamas

[magpiemaniac]

Update...

 

[Orangeburgwx]

2020 be like...

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[Solak]

Recon tentatively scheduled for Friday.

[Solak]

 

[tarheelwx]

Well, if the euro is right, any talk of the summer drought being underway wound be a distant memory.  
TW

[mackerel_sky]

Models have moved into two main camps overnight. Out to sea, or pulled in to the mainland by the ULL

[Solak]

31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Models have moved into two main camps overnight. Out to sea, or pulled in to the mainland by the ULL

Spann DOES have a funny bone after all

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Surface low seems to be forming right on Daytona Beach. As NWS said, too much shear for this thing to get going. For what it's worth, the NAM (I know) has a frisky tropical low moving into the Carolina coastline tomorrow and proceeding up through the Piedmont with heavy rain. 

Also, towards the end of the GFS, it has been advertising development in the western Caribbean/GOM for a couple days now. It did a good job with Arthur in the long range as well.

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM nailed this. We have Bertha 

[nwohweather]

Raining buckets here

[kvegas-wx]

Welcome Bertha!  May your rains be small.

[Anonmet_GSO]

Tropical trouble may develop in the GoM from the system that is traversing over land from the Eastern Pacific in the Gulf.  System is progged to reach Tropical Storm strength a couple hundred miles south of LA.  Spagetti plot hinting at a generally northward movement.  

 

[yotaman]

TD3 has formed off the western Yucatan peninsula.

[MJO812]

92L should be watched for the southeast coast

 

[Orangeburgwx]

12z

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[wncsnow]

Euro not impressed now

[MJO812]

[Orangeburgwx]

Slight tick west when looking at 12z, 18z, and 0z

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[Nuggetpalooza]

So for a layman who enjoys trying to make sense of the models you guys post, is it safe to say there's about a 40-60 chance of a SE landfall with this? Or are there certain models which are assumed to be more accurate?

*disclaimer that I understand that where it will be in 9-10 days is just about the DEFINITION of unpredictable*

[Orangeburgwx]

So for a layman who enjoys trying to make sense of the models you guys post, is it safe to say there's about a 40-60 chance of a SE landfall with this? Or are there certain models which are assumed to be more accurate?
*disclaimer that I understand that where it will be in 9-10 days is just about the DEFINITION of unpredictable*

10-20%, time will tell

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[wncsnow]

There may not even be a storm at all at this point

[NorthHillsWx]

System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.

[Orangeburgwx]

System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.

Bone dry at 500mb

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[NorthHillsWx]

Whatever becomes of 92L, the weaker the system stays the further west it'll be able to go. Even if this maxes out as a weak TS, it may make its way into the Gulf before turning north. Canadian model shows this the best and would give central NC a widespread rain event. That seems to be the greatest potential impact from this system. Just too much shear and land in it's way not to mention the fact it still has not consolidated. I cannot see a path to a strong system at this point. It's also moving and forecast to remain moving extremely quick, which can make it tough to organize substantially given the initial organization, or lack there of

[BullCityWx]

Some interesting runs so far with the 18z models

[Solak]

Still a pretty ragged mess. Once it gets off the shredder islands, it may become more interesting. Definitely not vertically stacked at the moment.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM doing NAM things this run, lol

[Modfan2]

Tropical Storm watches up here in S FL