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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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25 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Although the cell was tornado warned, it seems they're calling it high winds for now. 

It looks like some pretty serious damage occurred to a home in the Northhaven area. Some debris was even lodged into the ground, apparently: https://mobile.twitter.com/HowertonNews/status/1394032811875651595?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

We’ll have to wait for the official survey, but the evidence seems pretty convincing for a brief tornado touchdown. This very spot got hit with the tornado on 10/20/19, so if this were a tornado it would be the second time in less than two years that a tornado hit this spot.

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Tomorrow- convection allowing models have a wide variety of solutions for the storms that will happen in areas of northern Texas. Some storms could be forming in an environment of 4500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 kt of shear.

DXznHNm.jpg

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16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Hail-driven though, tornado probabilities remain at a seasonably meh 5%.

True, but I DON'T Take any chances, even though the tornado risk is a Slight, it can act like a Moderate, & I've seen that this year . . . 

This is why to Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Quite a bit of sunshine today, a humid airmass, and relatively strong low level winds make today seem like a stronger risk for severe weather this afternoon in East Texas than many other days that have been cloudy/less windy. 

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Beautiful supercell on radar ENE of Denver but must be nothing out that way, at least not in the way of cell service, since I can't find a single livestream that's active...

Edit: Matt Grantham's stream is back on for that cell (heh, for a second)

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