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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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  • 3 weeks later...

Very strong concern for my area (Central Oklahoma), SE Oklahoma, & Southern Oklahoma tonight. the SPC is calling for a higher chance of Tornadoes, up to Tennis Ball sized hail & 70 mph wind gusts.

It appears that the area of Highest Instability is along & east of I-35, along & south of I-40, along & west of US-75 or US-69, & along & north of US-70.

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Very strong concern for my area (Central Oklahoma), SE Oklahoma, & Southern Oklahoma tonight. the SPC is calling for a higher chance of Tornadoes, up to Tennis Ball sized hail & 70 mph wind gusts.

It appears that the area of Highest Instability is along & east of I-35, along & south of I-40, along & west of US-75 or US-69, & along & north of US-70.

CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds.

So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure.

EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season. 

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds.

So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure.

EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season. 

I know! October was basically May except 5 months late!

It appears that there is a solid tornado threat for Oklahoma, especially the squall line tornado threat.

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15 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Looking at the clouds, you can actually see the updrafts trying their damndest to break throigh the cap as the initial line of showers moves through and instability/moisture advection picks up.

There's some lightning strikes showing up within it in OK I see...

Lightning's showing up now over DFW, hearing thunder here. 

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14 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Well dang, so we're going to get another round tonight in DFW after this line that is currently rolling through.

Any chance this current line will lessen the tornado risk for tonight's main event for DFW?

If anything, the subsidence behind this initial line might help to keep the cells later this evening discrete longer. 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1937
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

   Areas affected...parts of north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 102306Z - 110100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps
   a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK
   into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending
   southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the
   55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing
   instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE,
   despite little heating today.

   Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline
   intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more
   supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms
   forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening.

   Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500
   mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as
   storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief
   tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable
   prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are
   forecast to rapidly veer this evening.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544
               32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877
               33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674 
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Possible tornado Tulsa suburbs, Tulsa Airport

Quote

 

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Rogers County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  East central Tulsa County in northeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 730 PM CST.
    
* At 719 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Tulsa, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Tulsa...                          Catoosa...
  Tulsa International Airport...    


Confirmed tornado near I-44/I-244 highways

 

bRp8h8c.jpg

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  • 1 month later...

I made a similar post in the main Severe WX discussion thread in another part of the forum about last nights storms, but I figured I'd post here too as it is relevant to this regional discussion. NWS SGF did confirm an EF-1 tornado near Branson West, MO. Fortunately it dissipated before moving further east towards the Silver Dollar City Theme park. I can only imagine what kind of disaster that would have been if it had sustained itself and hit SDC with Christmas time crowds present as It was estimated there were roughly 20K people on site, even as an EF-1 tornado I could see it being a mass casualty event. These storms were moving between 40-60 MPH so there would be little time to react and evacuate the park with those crowd numbers. I really think theme parks and stadiums need to close and cancel events on days where there's severe weather in the forecast. (even if SDC/Branson was on the western fringe of the outlook area)

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSSGF&e=202112112042

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12 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

I made a similar post in the main Severe WX discussion thread in another part of the forum about last nights storms, but I figured I'd post here too as it is relevant to this regional discussion. NWS SGF did confirm an EF-1 tornado near Branson West, MO. Fortunately it dissipated before moving further east towards the Silver Dollar City Theme park. I can only imagine what kind of disaster that would have been if it had sustained itself and hit SDC with Christmas time crowds present as It was estimated there were roughly 20K people on site, even as an EF-1 tornado I could see it being a mass casualty event. These storms were moving between 40-60 MPH so there would be little time to react and evacuate the park with those crowd numbers. I really think theme parks and stadiums need to close and cancel events on days where there's severe weather in the forecast. (even if SDC/Branson was on the western fringe of the outlook area)

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSSGF&e=202112112042

Nothing in comparison to what they saw in my area in ne Arkansas and especially in ky. Possibly the longest track tornado ever. 250 miles is impressive 

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I have apparently started up a sh*tstorm over on this site regarding the above statement. Gotta love the general public. :wacko: These are probably the same people that throw fits over severe weather coverage breaking in on the TV.

EDIT: lol They banned me so I couldn't respond after sending some personal insults my way. Apparently dissenting opinions are not allowed.

 https://themeparkreview.com/forum/topic/134-silver-dollar-city-sdc-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1907522

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On 12/12/2021 at 3:01 PM, stormdragonwx said:

I have apparently started up a sh*tstorm over on this site regarding the above statement. Gotta love the general public. :wacko: These are probably the same people that throw fits over severe weather coverage breaking in on the TV.

EDIT: lol They banned me so I couldn't respond after sending some personal insults my way. Apparently dissenting opinions are not allowed.

 https://themeparkreview.com/forum/topic/134-silver-dollar-city-sdc-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1907522

Sometimes, you just gotta learn how to read the room.

I doubt a bunch of theme park enthusiasts care about the intricate weather details you wanted to discuss

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  • 4 weeks later...

Tornado watch until 10:00 PM including Beaumont and Houston metro areas. 30/20 probs

SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 13
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   445 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Texas

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
     1000 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Regenerative supercells will remain possible through this
   evening. Brief tornadoes will be the primary hazard.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Lufkin TX
   to 15 miles east southeast of Houston TX. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 20025.

   ...Grams
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  • 1 month later...

Looks like a good chance for severe weather in OK/TX and points east next Wednesday and Thursday. Could be a Dixie outbreak.  Still many change in the forecast expected but early indications are good for a multi day severe event. Oh and dare I forget the snow in W OK and KS with the storm all the way into N. Michigan. 

SPC

 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave
   trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern
   CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to
   eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the
   southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward
   across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday. 

   Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong
   low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the
   shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to
   robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK
   and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early
   D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on
   D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the
   middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening.

   The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture,
   and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current
   guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on
   D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK,
   central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe
   risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the
   Lower OH Valley.

NWS TULSA DISC

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022

Bottom line upfront: After a rather chilly weekend, expect warm
and windy weather for the first half of the week. Fire weather
concerns will be on the rise. Strong storm system arrives late
Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread rainfall and
thunderstorms expected. The average surface low track in the
latest data suggests this system has a low probability of
producing impactful wintry weather over our area at this point.
Details will continue to be refined in the coming days.

Digging shortwave trough over the central CONUS will force
aforementioned cold front thru the region this afternoon and
tonight. A few showers are possible ahead of the front as it moves
thru far southeast Oklahoma, but the better chances will be over
the ArkLaTex into early Saturday. Airmass behind this front will
be arctic in nature, but the brunt of this misses us to north and
east. Regardless, blended guidance (NBM) didn`t give it enough
respect and was toward the warm edge of the spread. Went with the
colder short term (CONSShort) guidance instead, with highs not
getting out of the 30s in most places. A secondary shortwave
trough dives southeast across the Midwest Saturday night into
Sunday, with a reinforcing push of arctic air coming south down
the center part of the country. The cold air will just glance us
this time but will still keep highs in check for Sunday.

Big pattern change comes next week, with deep cyclonic flow
developing over the western CONUS. SW flow over the Plains
downstream will induce lee troughing over the High Plains and a
tight gradient over us. Strong southerly flow and an expanding low
level thermal ridge will lead to a fast warmup thru Tuesday. Fire
weather concerns ramp up, with the highest spread indices on
Tuesday when winds will be strongest.

Upper low diving down the West Coast early in the week will pivot
around the base of the western CONUS trough and eject into the
Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread showers and storms
in the warm conveyor ahead of advancing system will overspread
the region Wednesday night, exiting Thursday morning. Some locally
heavy rainfall is possible. As far as severe weather potential is
concerned, sufficient deep layer shear will not be a question,
especially in the basal portion of a negative tilt shortwave
trough. Instability will be the main question. A significant
frontal intrusion into the Gulf basin by this weekend`s system
suggests that appreciable moisture may not arrive in time. Future
forecasts will refine this in the coming days. Regardless,
potential for thunder still appears larger than what the NBM
suggests, and have nudged those probs upward.

Colder air will push into the region on Thursday as the surface
low passes by. The main question at this point will be the track
of the surface low, which has big implications regarding our
winter weather potential. The latest deterministic GFS tracks the
surface low just to our north, keeping the wrap-around heavy snow
band to our north over Kansas. The latest ECMWF is a bit farther
south with these features, grazing NE OK with the snow band. We
are still several days out, and the details will continue to
adjust as we get closer. For now, will not go full boar with
winter weather potential, inserting low potential for snow and
light accums. Just too early to tell if this system will bring
winter weather impacts.

Lacy

 

day6prob.gif

day7prob.gif

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