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OKTWISTER

Severe Weather May 4th

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
517 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
OKC027-125-042300-  
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-200504T2300Z/  
CLEVELAND OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-  
517 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT  
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...  
  
AT 516 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN  
NORMAN, OR NEAR LAKE THUNDERBIRD, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  
  
THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL 3   
         MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAKE THUNDERBIRD.   
  
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
         SIDING, AND VEHICLES.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN, TECUMSEH, PINK, TRIBBEY, ETOWAH, BROOKSVILLE,  
MACOMB, LAKE THUNDERBIRD, LITTLE AXE AND TROUSDALE.  
  

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As was mentioned earlier tail end charlie might get active.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
554 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 553 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF ROSEDALE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  BYARS AND ROSEDALE.   

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1 minute ago, Snowstorm920 said:

Wicked hook developing on that cell near Miami OK 

@jojo762 was near there as of last time he posted, I wonder if he stayed in the vicinity. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorm920 said:

Wicked hook developing on that cell near Miami OK 

Rotation is pretty weak/non existent 

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LETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
603 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  NORTHWESTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 602 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WYANDOTTE, OR  
  9 MILES EAST OF MIAMI, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  NEOSHO...                         BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK...  
  SENECA...                         GRANBY...  
  ANDERSON...                       GOODMAN...  
  RACINE...                           

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The fact that the Seneca storm isn’t Producing, tells you all you need to know about today. It starts with a B

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20 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The fact that the Seneca storm isn’t Producing, tells you all you need to know about today. It starts with a B

at least it's TOR warned now

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Mesoscale Discussion 0536
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and
   northwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 163...

   Valid 042342Z - 050145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk remains evident across Tornado Watch
   163, with greatest short-term tornado potential indicated within a
   small corridor near the OK/MO/AR border intersection.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop indicates a broken band of supercell
   storms ongoing near the advancing surface cold front, from
   southwestern Missouri to south-central Oklahoma.  The airmass ahead
   of this band remains moderately unstable, with mid 60s dewpoints
   beneath very steep lapse rates aloft yielding 3000 to 4000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE.  

   While deep-layer shear -- owing to veering/increasing flow with
   height -- is favorable for strongly rotating updrafts given the
   thermodynamic environment, low-level shear remains somewhat weak in
   most areas.  As such, the main risk remains very large hail, and
   locally damaging RFD outflow winds.  

   However, a locally enhanced area for tornado potential over the next
   1-2 hours appears to exist across far northeastern OK, far
   southwestern MO, and into northwestern AR.  Here, a
   northwest-to-southeast outflow boundary is evident, and it appears
   that a supercell now moving southeastward into McDonald County
   Missouri may move along this boundary -- and the associated zone of
   enhanced vorticity.  If this occurs, this storm -- or another cell
   or two just to the southwest -- may pose locally greater tornado
   potential within the narrow corridor in the vicinity of the
   boundary.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
650 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  EASTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 650 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINEVILLE,  
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.   
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS,   
           SIDING, AND VEHICLES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK...     ANDERSON...  
  GOODMAN...                        PINEVILLE...  
  WASHBURN...                       POWELL...  
  RIDGLEY...                          

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It will be interesting to see if the cap kills off those severe storms in southern Oklahoma in the next few hours.  If not, they are headed straight down I-35 for DFW.

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There is now a hailstorm capable of significant hail (2"+) about to move from southern Oklahoma into Montague and Cooke counties in north-central Texas.  Could even be some rotation trying to form on this storm.  If the current motion continues it may try to move towards Denton County (and the northern portions of the Metroplex) if it can hold together that long.

EDIT: severe thunderstorm warning for eastern Montague and all of Cooke County.  It is warned for 2-inch hail and 65 mph wind gusts (OK warning included concern for 3-inch hail).  Steve McCauley (on his Facebook page) is saying that the storms should be able to survive into (at least) the northern DFW area.

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8 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Do wonder if that storm could make it intact to the metroplex

Hopefully the hail potential winds down somewhat before then, but you can never count on that (the cap is one finicky beast at times).  Collapsing storms can also produce damaging wind gusts on occasion, so even if the hail threat diminishes, there is that risk (although this storm is already capable of damaging wind as it is).  I would not be surprised to see a local extension of the severe thunderstorm watch into Tarrant and Dallas counties.

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Interestingly enough there might be some outflow out ahead of this storm, from west of Thackerville over to Muenster and Bowie (which is evident on the KFWS radar).  Might be a sign of a possible weakening trend, but this does not appear ahead of the lead storm over Thackerville.

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Was it really the cap, or more of a function of less boundary layer heating and poor low-level lapse rates? I know a cap is influenced by boundary layer heating, but the models were way off. 1-2C difference in lapse rates is huge. It’s not like they progged 13C at 800mb and it was 17C.

When I think of too much cap, I think of orphan anvils and failed CI. We had plenty of CI today, but I’m guessing bad lapse rates and meager low-level cape led to less intense parcel acceleration. Updrafts weren’t necessarily as intense as many expected. 

Ever since that busted tornado outbreak “swarm” in Oklahoma, I’ve started taking LLLRs a lot more seriously. There is a strong correlation between higher end tornado episodes and LLLRs. Likewise, a lot of busts have junky low-level thermodynamics. 

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2 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Interestingly enough there might be some outflow out ahead of this storm, from west of Thackerville over to Muenster and Bowie (which is evident on the KFWS radar).  Might be a sign of a possible weakening trend, but this does not appear ahead of the lead storm over Thackerville.

Welp. I was thinking the storm would go south through Denton and Tarrant counties but it's taken an interesting turn to the east and looks like it'll hit here in southern Collin County... warned for 65 mph winds and ping pong ball sized hail.

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15 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Welp. I was thinking the storm would go south through Denton and Tarrant counties but it's taken an interesting turn to the east and looks like it'll hit here in southern Collin County... warned for 65 mph winds and ping pong ball sized hail.

Those storms are definitely outflow-dominant now.  The outflow boundary has surged well ahead of the storms, and is currently over central Dallas County and southern Tarrant County (and is just north of the KFWS radar site).  If these storms had maintained unimpeded inflow at or near the surface we would probably be having a major hailstorm over DFW right now, but fortunately that outflow surged out ahead of the storms.

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4 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Those storms are definitely outflow-dominant now.  The outflow boundary has surged well ahead of the storms, and is currently over central Dallas County and southern Tarrant County (and is just north of the KFWS radar site).  If these storms had maintained unimpeded inflow at or near the surface we would probably be having a major hailstorm over DFW right now, but fortunately that outflow surged out ahead of the storms.

Yeah it shows now and the storm is below severe levels as it tracks southeast

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1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Was it really the cap, or more of a function of less boundary layer heating and poor low-level lapse rates? I know a cap is influenced by boundary layer heating, but the models were way off. 1-2C difference in lapse rates is huge. It’s not like they progged 13C at 800mb and it was 17C.

When I think of too much cap, I think of orphan anvils and failed CI. We had plenty of CI today, but I’m guessing bad lapse rates and meager low-level cape led to less intense parcel acceleration. Updrafts weren’t necessarily as intense as many expected. 

Ever since that busted tornado outbreak “swarm” in Oklahoma, I’ve started taking LLLRs a lot more seriously. There is a strong correlation between higher end tornado episodes and LLLRs. Likewise, a lot of busts have junky low-level thermodynamics. 

Yes I think that was the failure today. Great low-level lapse rate really seem to make up for a lot of other deficiencies, and conversely seem to break a lot of setups that should produce. It doesn't take a lot of spin down low when you've got intense stretching ability.

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Interesting day to say the least. Chased two supercells that developed near Welch OK. First produced a huge wall cloud but didn’t have much rotation and must’ve gotten ^slightly^ north of the boundary shortly after as the wall cloudy quickly dissipated, and storm became elevated.
 

The second supercell developed as soon as the original storm went elevated... this one had an interesting initial life-cycle, as it quickly produced a gust-front and was seemingly outflow dominant before re-acquiring surface-based status. This storm looked impressive on radar but never really acquired any notable low-level meso... chased it to just past Anderson, MO, but gave up because it wasn’t doing much and the road network/trees get unbearable in far SW MO. Baseball to Softball-sized hail per the SVR warning along with the ESE movement made this one not very fun to chase.

 

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Well.. that was disappointing. Yeah I chased that same NE OK cell down to Pineville, MO before I called it quits. I really thought it was gonna produce at one point as it neared Seneca on the state line. Typical 2020 junk storms as usual around here. I think if the storms took more of a E/NE track it could have helped them produce. Never been a fan of S/SE storm motions.

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