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joshwx2003

April 12 Severe Event

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36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been so many events where wildfire smoke was involved it’s hard to really come to any conclusion.  The May 3 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma had widespread smoke from Mexico fires 

The 04/27/11 outbreak was affected by a fire in Central America as well.

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Definitely happy that this seems to be trending away from "historic outbreak" territory. Lets hope that trend continues 

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Just now, cheese007 said:

Definitely happy that this seems to be trending away from "historic outbreak" territory. Lets hope that trend continues 

I don't think it's trending anywhere right now.  Same story as yesterday.  High ceiling, but potential for bust as well.

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12 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Definitely happy that this seems to be trending away from "historic outbreak" territory. Lets hope that trend continues 

I haven't noticed much difference in the parameters since yesterday.   

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43 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

Here's a Twitter post that maybe gives us a glance into the current thoughts of SPC forecasters.

 

See latest post

 

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These are the NAM-3km updraft helicity swaths out to 27 hours (03z Monday.) The NAM seems to like the idea of several storms in Arkansas, as opposed to MS/AL. I am not sure this is necessarily the most accurate depiction. Convection-allowing models are kind of all over the place with convection in MS. They seem to have a bit more agreement on several storms being MS/AL border near 00z, possibly extending the storms up towards Huntsville.

YqmgMeK.png

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Perplexing scenario for tomorrow per 00z CAMs. Really high-end environment, yet not really many storms being convected in the models despite what feels like an obvious situation for lots of storms.

Best of luck to whomever is doing the 06z Day one outlook. 

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5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Perplexing scenario for tomorrow per 00z CAMs. Really high-end environment, yet not really many storms being convected in the models despite what feels like an obvious situation for lots of storms.

Best of luck to whomever is doing the 06z Day one outlook. 

Likely to stay mod imo.

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2 minutes ago, joshwx2003 said:

I’m getting concerned with the lack of convection that the models showed developing across Southern Texas

Every run of the HRRR since 22z has gradually been backing off. Right now, there’s very little convection at all. 

FWIW, the HRRR also shows gradually less convective blobbing along the warm front tomorrow morning. 

My guess is the tornado action could start as early as late morning on the SW/S flank of early day storms, probably in Louisiana, but possibly as far west as extreme eastern Texas.

Arkansas (possibly eastern Oklahoma?) is interesting with funky wind profiles that could result in hybrid tornadic supercells. MS/W AL is still a wildcard area with many possible scenarios. 

Overnight tomorrow still really concerns me across a broad area from MS to GA, whether it be a broken line of supercells or a massive squall line with numerous QLCS tornadoes  

Overall, given the background environment, any convection near or south of the warm front needs to be watched as early as 16-17z. Even with messy storm modes, you can get strong tornadoes with so much low-level shear.

 

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9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Likely to stay mod imo.

Yeah, that’s really the only option. There is very little argument to be made for a day 1 high at this point. It could change later, but I just don’t see it right now. 

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4z HRRR coming in with a much different solution than previous runs. Lack of convection/del rio supercell that died out has a huge impact on how the convective complex plays out tonight per 4z hrrr. Warm sector is much farther north this run of the hrrr tomorrow afternoon which can be a game changer. 

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Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

here's what i mean

671306082_hrrr21.thumb.png.bbc0bb587731eccab117a4d5cd7b02d3.png

Ummm... all I can say is yikes. Image speaks for itself.

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Just now, StormySquares said:

04 HRRR would be the start of a new trend, it's pretty different from even 03z. If 05,06,07,ect continue this, that's a bad look for north central MS/AL

It's worth looking into. 0z 5 hour radar forecast vs reality was a major bust already. Latest HRRR is taking in current radar data and adjusting. We'll see how it plays out. Obs game from here really. 

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Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

It's worth looking into. 0z 5 hour radar forecast vs reality was a major bust already. Latest HRRR is taking in current radar data and adjusting. We'll see how it plays out. Obs game from here really. 

Yeah HRRR was dreadful predicting Del Rio area storms tonight. That in house model posted above actually did a pretty good job depicting those TX storms.

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What’s crazy about that run of the HRRR is, is that as bad as it looks, it’s likely not the ceiling. 

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