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Hoosier

April 11-13 Snowy/Rainy/Windy Affair

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Think I will turn this into a general storm thread to include the rain/wind aspects.

System looks to deepen pretty rapidly as currently progged, although it is already fairly deep when it's rolling out of the Plains.

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Think I will turn this into a general storm thread to include the rain/wind aspects.

System looks to deepen pretty rapidly as currently progged, although it is already fairly deep when it's rolling out of the Plains.

The winds for Lake Erie look particularly interesting.  

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00z UKMET gets it sub 980 mb while in Indiana.  That is really hard to do.  Believe me.  Storms that deep almost always 1) track too far northwest or 2) don't deepen to that level until they have already passed into Michigan or Canada.  I am a bit of a low pressure nerd and I think you'd have to go back into the 1980s to find the last time there was a sub 980 mb surface low in IN, and that was like 978-979. 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020041000_81_35_149.thumb.png.66095b8c61eb8ee705f1add4a60ecf66.png

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Euro not quite that deep but does a funky stall for 6-8 hours just long enough to kick the SE US's butt with some wicked severe weather then shoots into MI.  Will be an interesting dynamic system.  Hope the models are over doing the severe threat down south.  Don't need anything close to '11 down there right now.

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33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z UKMET gets it sub 980 mb while in Indiana.  That is really hard to do.  Believe me.  Storms that deep almost always 1) track too far northwest or 2) don't deepen to that level until they have already passed into Michigan or Canada.  I am a bit of a low pressure nerd and I think you'd have to go back into the 1980s to find the last time there was a sub 980 mb surface low in IN, and that was like 978-979. 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020041000_81_35_149.thumb.png.66095b8c61eb8ee705f1add4a60ecf66.png

Do you recall what month that sub-980 occurred?

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

00z UKMET gets it sub 980 mb while in Indiana.  That is really hard to do.  Believe me.  Storms that deep almost always 1) track too far northwest or 2) don't deepen to that level until they have already passed into Michigan or Canada.  I am a bit of a low pressure nerd and I think you'd have to go back into the 1980s to find the last time there was a sub 980 mb surface low in IN, and that was like 978-979. 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020041000_81_35_149.thumb.png.66095b8c61eb8ee705f1add4a60ecf66.png

What does the precip type/ shield look like on this UKMET?

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30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

So is their version of Winter Wonderland lol

you'll have to save that meme in your back pocket for next season

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On the southern part of this system, SPC already has a Day 3 MDT and 45% hatched severe probs for parts of SE AR, Louisiana, MS, and AL on Easter Sunday.  Very rare to see 45% probs on a Day 3, so Easter might be sadly a historic tornado/severe day in Dixie Alley.

Slight risk currently includes far SE IL and SW IN.  Marginal is currently roughly along and south of a COU-SPI-CMI-FWA-PKB line in this subforum.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley...
   Destabilization in the vicinity of the primary surface low into the
   mid MS Valley/OH Valley is more uncertain, given the potential for
   disruptive convection further south. However, favorable wind
   profiles and closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave will support
   some severe thunderstorm threat in this region as well, with a
   conditional risk of all hazards given sufficient destabilization.

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2 hours ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said:

On the southern part of this system, SPC already has a Day 3 MDT and 45% hatched severe probs for parts of SE AR, Louisiana, MS, and AL on Easter Sunday.  Very rare to see 45% probs on a Day 3, so Easter might be sadly a historic tornado/severe day in Dixie Alley.

Slight risk currently includes far SE IL and SW IN.  Marginal is currently roughly along and south of a COU-SPI-CMI-FWA-PKB line in this subforum.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley...
   Destabilization in the vicinity of the primary surface low into the
   mid MS Valley/OH Valley is more uncertain, given the potential for
   disruptive convection further south. However, favorable wind
   profiles and closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave will support
   some severe thunderstorm threat in this region as well, with a
   conditional risk of all hazards given sufficient destabilization.

That is a bad situation shaping up for them, especially in the midst of the pandemic.  The worse the tornadoes are, the more likely that shelters will be needed for people who lose their homes.  Shelters = groups of people

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12 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

I am, of course, excited. We always tend to eek out quite a bit more than forecasted where I lived due to elevation and what not.

 

This'll be nice. The snow is starting to look dirty.

First call here 25-28"... chance of 30" like April 15-17th, 2018.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That is a bad situation shaping up for them, especially in the midst of the pandemic.  The worse the tornadoes are, the more likely that shelters will be needed for people who lose their homes.  Shelters = groups of people

Very true.  And we've had two close calls here already (Mar. 28 and Apr. 8).

Plus MO/IL/IN/OH still very much in play for at least scattered strong/severe storms on Easter Sunday.

LSX's AFD this afternoon is thinking that SPC needs to move the Marginal Risk farther north in their Day 2 outlook.  If this happens, PIA and maybe Detroit and  Chicago could be in play for strong/severe on Sunday:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

This combination of factors will almost certainly bring
widespread showers to the region on Sunday, and it looks like
we`ll have sufficient instability to support at least embedded
thunderstorms. Moreover, given strong system dynamics, a few
strong to severe storms are possible. Given these parameters, I
think SPC`s marginal risk is probably appropriate, though it may
need to be pulled a bit farther north what is shown in the the
current day 3 outlook.

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5 hours ago, weatherbo said:

First call here 25-28"... chance of 30" like April 15-17th, 2018.

Do you have 30 inches of room on your stake?

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The threat of damaging winds for Mon across nearly all of southern ON started to be communicated as early as Thursday afternoon. Most substainal weather here so far this year probably. 

Regarding the severe threat in the south for Sunday, I'll believe a major tornado outbreak when we see one. IMO the last single day was April 28 2014.

Large geographic area of high potential is a big indicator for how likely we'll see one for the books and Sun has that. Even with my default non-scientific feeling always leaning on bust due to persistence, I think 1 or 2 strong tornadoes will occur. I wouldn't want to be down there in Dixie at a time like this, for multiple reasons but if so I'd be looking at my tornado plan and making sure I have a safe spot ready. Dixie is trending more as the main region for tornado alley.

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43 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

The threat of damaging winds for Mon across nearly all of southern ON started to be communicated as early as Thursday afternoon. Most substainal weather here so far this year probably. 

Regarding the severe threat in the south for Sunday, I'll believe a major tornado outbreak when we see one. IMO the last single day was April 28 2014.

Large geographic area of high potential is a big indicator for how likely we'll see one for the books and Sun has that. Even with my default non-scientific feeling always leaning on bust due to persistence, I think 1 or 2 strong tornadoes will occur. I wouldn't want to be down there in Dixie at a time like this, for multiple reasons but if so I'd be looking at my tornado plan and making sure I have a safe spot ready. Dixie is trending more as the main region for tornado alley.

The in-laws live in Port Maitland in Haldimand County and today I told them they should start preparing a plan. They live about 20 feet away from the lake and have a 10 foot breakwall protecting their backyard. They saw substantial damage with the fall storm. Ill be down there on Monday to record what happens during the height of the storm. 

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7 hours ago, weatherbo said:

First call here 25-28"... chance of 30" like April 15-17th, 2018.

First call of 2.5 feet.  You are an American God lol. :weight_lift:

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