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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has been a while since I’ve seen such an emphatic signal for an active season. Even without a niña breaking during the peak, a cool neutral regime is plenty favorable for an active basin. I do agree that this early June period looks good too. It’s in fantasy range but you can see a weak signal from the guidance starting to show up. 

gfs-ens_mslpa_watl_53.png

 

cfs.gif

CFS has been consistent with a Kelvin Wave and the MJO with it slowing down into the NH with the CHI posted above.This KW could spawn up some TG along the western flank if it's to be right into the first week of June,i'd keep watching along the Yucatan still upcoming

Tropical_Monitoring_North_Carolina_Institute_for_Climate_Studies (2).png

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46 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Tropical disturbance near Florida, on the Gulf side would appear Lemon worthy....

Guidance, especially the euro, has been playing around with areas of vorticity over the next few days on both sides of FL. If it were later in the year I’d perk up more. We’ll see if something is able to consolidate. It’d have to do it quickly.

Last season I believe we had three disturbances that went from nothing or lemon straight to named. 

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There were a couple ensemble members of the GEFS 18Z which could lead into some TG into the GOM into June,to early to tell right now tho

GEFS_Model_Tropical_Tidbits.png

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Seemingly there also looks to be a trough going through East Asia towards the end of the month,maybe something to watch as it could bring a CF toward the end of wk 1 of June in the east and also more trough in the NE,this could dampen out any TG expectations into the GOM

ECMWF_Model_Tropical_Tidbits (1).png

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As the NHC notes, there are a lot of things going against the lemon developing. It’d need to get offshore to really have a chance. We’ll see what happens this evening. 

There is a weak surface low evident in the visible imagery. So is the shear.

46991201.gif?0.3305622972913058

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We now have four straight GFS runs (yesterday 18Z, today 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) showing a big tropical storm in the Gulf on June 7.

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I think the Euro will eventually come around. The signal looks strong for a legitimate window for TC development in early June. It looks like the difference is whether ridging will suppress activity in the EPAC from filtering into the Caribbean/GOM. With the overall pattern and eventual presence of a CAG, I think we get some level of development.

In the meantime, the FL disturbance looks slightly more organized now that it’s offshore. There’s a weak surface low, and convection is being enhanced by the trough in the region. The further east this can develop, the higher likelihood for some quick development because it creates a larger time window and puts it over better convection and SSTs.

Not a large window though with land proximity and shear that is still an issue. I’d personally go with ~40% odds of development right now, but if the surface vortex can align under persistent convection there’s a real chance for brief TC genesis.  

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Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion

Last Updated: 05.26.20 Valid: 05.27.20 - 06.09.20
While an active intraseasonal signal is still present in the CPC velocity potential based MJO index as well as the RMM-based MJO index, the overall pattern has become increasingly incoherent over the past several days. The amplitude of the enhanced convective envelope in particular has decreased as a Kelvin wave propagated across the Pacific, well ahead of the rest of the signal. Despite the regime of enhanced trade winds across much of the Pacific basin, the Kelvin wave appears to be convectively coupled with the North Pacific ITCZ, and a zonally narrow band of anomalous westerlies is present south of Mexico. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts track this Kelvin wave better than any other coherent feature, with most model forecasts showing the signal returning to the Indian Ocean towards the end of Week-2 or weakening. Based on these recent observations and forecasts, a canonical MJO evolution from the Maritime Continent to the Pacific is not anticipated, but the Kelvin wave is likely to influence the tropical convective pattern, particularly across the Western Hemisphere.

Cyclone Amphan made landfall over West Bengal on 20 May at Category-2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing considerable damage across northeastern India and Bangladesh. This single tropical cyclone generated more than double the climatological accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) observed over the North Indian Ocean basin during the entire Spring season. On 21 May, Tropical Storm Mangga formed over the South Indian Ocean. Following extratropical transition and merging with a cold front, the remnants of TS Mangga generated widespread wind damage across Western Australia.

During Week-1, as the Kelvin wave crosses the East Pacific and with upper-level high pressure already in place, conditions will become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the East Pacific basin. The NHC is monitoring an area just south of Mexico and Guatemala, and forecasts a 70-percent chance of a tropical depression forming in this region over the next 5 days. More GEFS ensemble members depict tropical cyclone activity at days 5-8 than days 1-4; therefore, there is high confidence for tropical cyclogenesis in this region during the Week-1 period. As the Kelvin wave progresses eastward, the favorable area is anticipated to expand to include the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Numerous GEFS ensemble members depict the formation of a tropical cyclone in this region, with a clustering of tracks bringing the potential cyclone towards the Florida peninsula, the northern Gulf Coast, or as far east as central Cuba and the Bahamas. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding this forecast, and interests in the southeastern US, Mexico, and the western Caribbean should monitor the latest forecasts. A moderate potential for tropical cyclone formation is forecast for the Week-2 period extending from the East Pacific south of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the far northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, dynamical models show a moderate potential for a disturbance west of India to become a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward across the Arabian Sea. Several GEFS ensemble members depict a second tropical cyclone formation near Oman; however, confidence is too low at this time to include a second Arabian Sea formation hazard on the outlook.

Given the increasingly incoherent presentation of the intraseasonal signal, the forecasts for above- and below- normal precipitation are based on a consensus of bias-corrected CFS and ECMWF guidance, and potential tropical cyclone activity discussed above. Suppressed rainfall is favored across southeast Asia, the northwestern Pacific basin, and the equatorial central Atlantic during Week-1, while the central Maritime Continent and the East Pacific and western Atlantic basins are favored to be active. A disturbance near the US Southeast coastline may bring heavy rainfall to the Carolinas early in the period. A heat wave is ongoing across much of India, and is favored to continue early in the Week-1 period. Excessive heat is also likely across the US Southwest.

During Week-2, suppressed rainfall is favored to continue over the northwestern Pacific region, while a moderate potential for enhanced rainfall shifts eastward across the Maritime Continent and the South Pacific, including American Samoa. An area of enhanced rainfall is possible over the western Indian Ocean north of Madagascar as the Kelvin wave returns to the Indian Ocean. While excessive heat is favored to diminish over India, a period of hot weather is possible across parts of Southeast Asia.
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Disturbance off the FL coast is now  designated as Invest 91L with a 30% chance of development. No surprise as there’s been gradual organization today. Long way to go with little time. 

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That looks like a tropical storm on KCLX. Observations from buoy 41004 are pretty compelling as well.

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low 
pressure near the southeast U.S. coast.

Radar imagery indicates that the area of disturbed weather located 
just offshore the South Carolina Coast has become significantly 
better organized over the past few hours. Reports from an offshore 
buoy are showing that this system is producing tropical-storm-force 
winds. If these development trends continue, then this system 
is likely to become a tropical storm before it moves inland later 
today. 

Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding over portions of the 
Carolinas today.  Gusty winds could also produce rough marine 
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the 
coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through today.

For additional information, see products from your local National 
Weather Service office.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook 
on this system will be issued by 3PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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5 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Looks promising to me.  Would not be surprised as all to see advisories on TS Bertha initiated this morning.

 

image.thumb.png.4b83c93cb36eb00cbb0c848dd453289e.png

Just named Bertha 

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

With those years, how many had 2 purely tropical named systems (not sub-tropical storms as we frequently see in early season) before Hurricane season?

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I know this is hour 384 of the GFS (which means nothing), but this is quite a screenshot!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh384-384.gif

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ANOTHER AOI and it's only May 28th. Third one. 30/30. Chances are pretty low for development, and if development occurs, it will likely be subtropical in nature. Can you imagine if Cristobal formed right before June 1st, making it the third named pre-season storm? Either way, possibly a grim sign of what's to come during peak hurricane season.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low 
pressure over the central Atlantic.

1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are 
producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the 
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of 
Bermuda.  Gradual development of this system is possible, and it 
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and 
Saturday as it moves generally northward.  Development is not 
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental 
conditions.  For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, 
or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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NHC has bumped this newest AOI up to 50% now.

 
Quote

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low 
pressure over the central Atlantic.

1. A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the 
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of 
Bermuda.  This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms and gusty winds.  Additional development of this 
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight 
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward.  Development is not 
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental 
conditions.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be 
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

two_atl_2d0.png

 

 

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Although the signal is still muddled, I think it is increasingly likely that we see tropical cyclone genesis in the western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche in the next ten days. Seems really important how this CAG manifests itself over the next few days. 
 

32317609.gif?0.9334637744690483

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