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COVID-19 Talk

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'm wary of that too given how past weekend seemed better and then...this week happened

Yeah. I legitimately thought the week before was going to be the worse and we'd start seeing everything come down but... yeah unfortunately not.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'm wary of that too given how past weekend seemed better and then...this week happened

Does the notion that the states could be very bad at accurately tallying these numbers play into this at all? There are numerous ways these numbers could be pretty inaccurate. The weekend thing is evidence of that. COVID doesn't kill less often on Saturdays.

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Here is an example (excuse the simplistic crude numbers)

Daily deaths
100
120
130
140
145
147

Rate of change in daily deaths
20
10
10
5
2

Rate of change of the rate of change
10
0
-5
-3

Yes, total deaths are still climbing, but the overall rate is headed downwards. When you are dealing with big numbers this view helps understand the overall trend.

If you take an extra 20 older deaths and toss them into the 147 figure, it screws up this analysis completely and makes it appear the death rate is skyrocketing again (now you are plus 17 that last day).

Hope this helps some understand my point. I have seen Cuomo make this error on live TV several times.

he also said that a person went to bartmiztva didnt know he was sick.. wound up infecting 120 other people and many of them died.  #contacttracing

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The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part.  I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them.  And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids.  Is that a selfish view.  Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness.  The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy. 

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

The other thing that makes Covid less scary to me is that it does not have adverse effects on kids for the most part.  I have young kids so i tend to look at life through the lens of what is dangerous for them.  And until there is some change in the data, I’m not concerned at all for my kids.  Is that a selfish view.  Perhaps, but if you have young kids your number one priority is there health and happiness.  The lockdown hasn’t made my kids healthier, but it has made them less happy. 

I think we are all thankful for that, as the mom of a 4 year old.

 

My kiddo has been ecstatic about staying home though haha.

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22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Ben Gardner was an old man. Should he have died? Think about that for a minute.

If he had the virus when he went fishing at night the coroner will say it was COVID as cause of death. Not the massive shark bites and hanging eyeball

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22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Exactly! Like the first naked chick you see in a horror movie.

Or when you off to help two kids trying to sail a boat in the lagoon

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I think we are all thankful for that, as the mom of a 4 year old.

 

My kiddo has been ecstatic about staying home though haha.

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time.  But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life.  I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread.  And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1.  But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.  

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time.  But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life.  I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread.  And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1.  But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.  

It’s been an adjustment. It’s hard for me to play mom and good coworker at the same time. But you know, he’s happy he gets to have lots of play time and he’ll remember this when he’s older as not a scary or sad time but one where he got to spend lots of time with me.

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

 

I’m not sure why people are losing their minds over this pic.  It seems from afar that most people are in small groups with distance in between.  As long as they don’t let it get too packed it’s probably a good idea to have some beaches open so people don’t congregate in confined spaces indoors.  

I dont understand the no chair rule.. if people were sitting it would be easier to maintain 6 feet.  When you are moving around accidents happen..

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Just now, supernovasky said:

It’s been an adjustment. It’s hard for me to play mom and good coworker at the same time. But you know, he’s happy he gets to have lots of play time and he’ll remember this when he’s older as not a scary or sad time but one where he got to spend lots of time with me.

Thats great to hear.  I am still hopeful of a faster turnaround come mid May.  I really think warmer weather will be a huge factor.  But waiting around to test that theory stinks.

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11 minutes ago, H2O said:

If he had the virus when he went fishing at night the coroner will say it was COVID as cause of death. Not the massive shark bites and hanging eyeball

You know what’s always bothered me about that movie? The guy that went out fishing with Ben, it was the same time that those idiots were throwing dynamite into the bay, but he was with Ben and he must have died too. I mean, the night Brody and Hooper went out in the boat was the same day as when the bozos caught the tiger shark (a whaaaattt??), so where’s his body? And worse, the body count is wrong! Did he have the flu? A prevailing heart condition?
 

To me it doesn’t really matter. Death shouldn’t be casual, and certainly nobody should die alone like what is happening now.

This guy...

image.jpeg.a8f35070896e357c1d2471121f56c887.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You know what’s always bothered me about that movie? The guy that went out fishing with Ben, it was the same time that those idiots were throwing dynamite into the bay, but he was with Ben and he must have died too. I mean, the night Brody and Hooper went out in the boat was the same day as when the bozos caught the tiger shark (a whaaaattt??), so where’s his body? And worse, the body count is wrong! Did he have the flu? A prevailing heart condition?
 

To me it doesn’t really matter. Death shouldn’t be casual, and certainly nobody should die alone like what is happening now.

This guy...

image.jpeg.a8f35070896e357c1d2471121f56c887.jpeg

What bothered me is that I just don’t have enough scars to be in a scar off contest. I have 3 and one was self inflicted. Cone of shame. 

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I dont understand the Jaws reference.. going for a Jog down in Canton.. some nice site seeing :).. I will check back in later!

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7 minutes ago, H2O said:

What bothered me is that I just don’t have enough scars to be in a scar off contest. I have 3 and one was self inflicted. Cone of shame. 

I don’t even have the weak appendicitis scar, but I’ll drink to your non scar.

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43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I mean my kids are loving having Dad home all the time.  But at the same time they are missing their friends and school and life.  I was fully on board for the 15 days to slow the spread.  And reluctantly on board for the additional month ending May 1.  But when Governor Northam made the June 10 declaration i was not on board anymore.  

To be fair, it is June 10th OR when canceled if you look at the wording.

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1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I’m actually enjoying the cheap gas prices from the lockdown too.  

Indeed! With everyone out driving around everywhere it's really paying dividends.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I haven't pumped gas in at least 40 days.

Full serve gas stations are few and far between these days.

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32 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I dont understand the Jaws reference.. going for a Jog down in Canton.. some nice site seeing :).. I will check back in later!

 

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

There are countries out there with no national lockdowns in place. Social distancing guidelines are very different from a government mandated lockdown where you can be arrested for partaking in certain activities. This question may never be adequately answered, but I think the models showing hospitals being overwhelmed made the following mistakes:

1) Took the outlier Italy CFR numbers too literally.

2) failed to factor in the huge drop in people going to the hospital and doctors for other reasons

3) greatly overestimated ventilator need

4) didn’t properly account for self-selection bias and massive undercounting of total infected when looking at daily hospitalization rates 

I feel like the hospital narrative has been quietly going away as we have learned more about these four things. 

#2 is a massive part of this.  The mostly unknowable question is whether the government response played a role.  In other words, if business was allowed to go on as usual with minor restrictions, would we have seen:  1) more COVID cases, 2) more hospitalizations due to “life events” (eg. car crashes), 3) fewer cancellations of regular procedures, and 4) more people using ERs and hospitals for regular medical occurrences.  And therefore, stressed hospital systems.

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This is covid related so I’m going to post this here :weenie:

There’s no live sports so there are a bunch of reruns on. NBC has the Stanley Cup Finals. The Rangers were in the finals in 2014? 

Selfishly, no live sports sucks. NBA playoffs are always great. 

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16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

#2 is a massive part of this.  The mostly unknowable question is whether the government response played a role.  In other words, if business was allowed to go on as usual with minor restrictions, would we have seen:  1) more COVID cases, 2) more hospitalizations due to “life events” (eg. car crashes), 3) fewer cancellations of regular procedures, and 4) more people using ERs and hospitals for regular medical occurrences.  And therefore, stressed hospital systems.

I think it is telling that ER admits for things like stroke and heart failure are way down. These ailments did not suddenly go away. There is a very strong fear response keeping people away from the ER that makes hospital overrun less likely. Was this generated by the government or the media is the question.

Either way, people need to stop looking at Lombardy. Turns out they have this crisis every year around this time due to flu we just never paid attention to it before. The flu death numbers in Lombardy are crazy high every year for their population size.

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is covid related so I’m going to post this here :weenie:

There’s no live sports so there are a bunch of reruns on. NBC has the Stanley Cup Finals. The Rangers were in the finals in 2014? 

Selfishly, no live sports sucks. NBA playoffs are always great. 

Regular season is unwatchable, but yes the playoffs and esp the finals are entertaining.

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is covid related so I’m going to post this here :weenie:

There’s no live sports so there are a bunch of reruns on. NBC has the Stanley Cup Finals. The Rangers were in the finals in 2014? 

Selfishly, no live sports sucks. NBA playoffs are always great. 

Yes I believe they lost to the kings in a series that was closer than the final tally suggested. 

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32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

I think it is telling that ER admits for things like stroke and heart failure are way down. These ailments did not suddenly go away. There is a very strong fear response keeping people away from the ER that makes hospital overrun less likely. Was this generated by the government or the media is the question.

Either way, people need to stop looking at Lombardy. Turns out they have this crisis every year around this time due to flu we just never paid attention to it before. The flu death numbers in Lombardy are crazy high every year for their population size.

Are you attributing the drop in admits for heart attacks and strokes to people not getting treatment or to the change in lifestyle because of the closure?  

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