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Baroclinic Zone

March 24, 2020 - Coastal Threat

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is the cold coming from? The first storm ends as rain and there’s no CAA, so I’m selling 

Congrats

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download (24).png

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

On rain? Nah

Let's do this. Storm 1 is 2 to 4 for you storm 2 3 to 6 congrats on March 12 ehhh

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48 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Havent' had one of these to post in a couple months.  :)

I wonder when the last time ORH has gone through a winter without a warning being issued (I don't think we had one this year).

 

image.thumb.png.5cf42af3d65905195551b7c9645e9138.png

Wasn’t there one (or two) issued for Dec 1-3?   I forget 

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Depending on how much falls, I just may leave it.

What’s the threshold? 

I want the driveway clear so I’ll probably be raising the Ariens and blowing it. 

At least the subsurface ground has thawed out. So whatever falls can melt and soak in rather than pool up.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What’s the threshold? 

I want the driveway clear so I’ll probably be raising the Ariens and blowing it. 

At least the subsurface ground has thawed out. So whatever falls can melt and soak in rather than pool up.

I'm going to go with 4" or so as my threshold, Water content probably going to be on the higher side, Plus i'm thinking some of this melts off while falling to cool the surface, Also we look to rebound on Tues to high 40's, But i also have an asphalt driveway, Is yours gravel?

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm going to go with 4" or so as my threshold, Water content probably going to be on the higher side, Plus i'm thinking some of this melts off while falling to cool the surface, Also we look to rebound on Tues to high 40's, But i also have an asphalt driveway, Is yours gravel?

My driveway is dirt and gravel with some larger rocks mixed in. It’s tough to clear with bare, thawed ground. I have longer skids on it now so that should help, but I’m raising it anyway. I think 1-1.25” will be a good height. Tuesday should be able to melt that much remaining on the driveway.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My driveway is dirt and gravel with some larger rocks mixed in. It’s tough to clear with bare, thawed ground. I have longer skids on it now so that should help, but I’m raising it anyway. I think 1-1.25” will be a good height. Tuesday should be able to melt that much remaining on the driveway.

Yeah, If you don't raise it you will be throwing gravel everywhere, I had paved mine about 12yrs ago but before that it was gravel, My driveway is 150' and this time of year when it would snow would be very problematic with it being thawed.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, If you don't raise it you will be throwing gravel everywhere, I had paved mine about 12yrs ago but before that it was gravel, Mine driveway is 150' and this time of year when it would snow would be very problematic with it being thawed.

My neighbor has a long gravel driveway. During long winters, the melting snow piles at season’s end leave mounds of gravel...which he then puts  back. But he’s always angry at the plow kid for no raising the plow a bit. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My neighbor has a long gravel driveway. During long winters, the melting snow piles at season’s end leave mounds of gravel...which he then puts  back. But he’s always angry at the plow kid for no raising the plow a bit. 

Its a bitch, Mine was gravel for 20 yrs or so, Plus there is a lot of clay here as well,  I would end up just leaving it to melt off this time of year, It was the lesser of two evils really, Otherwise i would have to rake the gravel off the lawn and back into the driveway, What a PITA that was.

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12z Nam is a bit south of the 06z run, If that ends up being the case, I would not even bother trying to snow blow it as it looks like it would be gone by Tuesday but i wouldn't bank on it being right.

image.png.a44f5f783dfccdd9afbdc6eda78a3b04.png

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ORH obliterator on the NAM. 

Not buying those double digit totals over interior MA yet until euro cools it off a bit. 

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41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What’s the threshold? 

I want the driveway clear so I’ll probably be raising the Ariens and blowing it. 

At least the subsurface ground has thawed out. So whatever falls can melt and soak in rather than pool up.

My car cM deL with 8, so not plowing

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Even though this is just the 3/24 thread, NAM croaks many in round two as well. 

Its like this was run out of my basement. Too bad it’s the NAM

 

7458442A-F9A7-4348-8A74-13DA60D5D5EE.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even though this is just the 3/24 thread, NAM croaks many in round two as well. 

Its like this was run out of my basement. Too bad it’s the NAM

 

7458442A-F9A7-4348-8A74-13DA60D5D5EE.jpeg

That would be quite a winter.  Two fall events in December and two spring events in march.  And total crap in between.

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Seems like getting an event to actually happen this time, the trial and error game of this last winter ( despite now being spring...), finally does.

That was the gist of my conversation with outside Mets over the winter, was the striking neggie interference pattern at all scales, ... damping events, period. It was much less an issue of available cold.

There were two tendencies ...well, 'persistence' may be more apropos:   systems modulating W;  systems modulating weaker.    These were the correction vectors that took place ...

in

every

case

...Since the Dec 2019 event.

I strongly suspect gradient saturation and velocity were the main culprits ..as I've championed the cause all along.  This has been a large scale negative interference pattern pummeling the mid and shorter scales... pretty much unrelenting, the whole time...the whole way.

Now, the flow is relaxing as it typically does at the tail end of the season, and we have a chance - go wonder - for a 'well-behaved' cyclone in the models to actually f'ing take place. It all seems really simple to me: take away the limiting factor of a crushing +AO and an unmitigating Hadley Cell also squeezing into the mid latitudes, and things can happen/parlay.

About a month ago I posted that I thought we had a chance to recoup on the season when the pattern relaxed.. The EPO came right on schedule... - we'll have to see if we can get a -NAO transience in here...Some oper. GFS runs have been trying to flag that.  Anyway, still two events in the pipe line for this week, which is a testament to the better cyclone vitality of this season ending advantage, they have been remarkably stable in all guidance ( save for details). 

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